Celsius DeFi ponzi collapsing

[NoahA]

I see that you’re not in the US.

First of all, I did not say to ignore comp sales. But that’s just the beginning of the process to determine the price. A listing contract expires. Real estate agents are on the clock. If you take the advice of your agent as gospel, you are a moron.

Second, real estate agents aren’t more knowledgeable than the homeowners who have been living in the area for years. In many areas, owners sell without an agent and use a real estate attorney to draw up the sales contract for a flat fee instead of 6% commission.

Last, this whole discussion arose because you said buying and selling a house is the same as selling stock on an exchange. That’s something a person who has never gone through the stressful process of a real estate deal would say.

I don’t know if you rent or live with your parents for free. Buy a place of your own and then determine if it’s the same as clicking a mouse on your trading platform.

You still didn't answer my question. Forget even the agent then. What will anyone use to price a house for sale? Now you say not to ignore a comp, and what I'm saying is a comp is the most important thing.

Sure, if the house that sold down the street is 20% bigger than yours, then your asking selling price will have to be lower to compensate, and same thing with renovations or other upgrades or details. But my point still stands that if a house drops in sale price by 200k from 6 months ago, then every single house on that street will now have to be listed at a much lower price.

For a direct example, your next door neighbor sold their house 6 months ago for 1 million. Yours is smaller and you figure it could have sold for 900k at the time. Now the house next door sells again, but for only 800k think time, a drop of 20%. What do you think you can price yours at? If it was 900k 6 months ago and market is now 20% lower based on the 1 comp, then yours will more than likely be valued at 720k, which is 20% lower.

Of course if yours is the cheapest on the street, it might command a higher price for anyone looking to enter the market, so there is wiggle room. But every single discussion on price starts with comps and recent sales.

 

[savoir]

You still didn't answer my question. Forget even the agent then. What will anyone use to price a house for sale? Now you say not to ignore a comp, and what I'm saying is a comp is the most important thing.

Sure, if the house that sold down the street is 20% bigger than yours, then your asking selling price will have to be lower to compensate, and same thing with renovations or other upgrades or details. But my point still stands that if a house drops in sale price by 200k from 6 months ago, then every single house on that street will now have to be listed at a much lower price.

For a direct example, your next door neighbor sold their house 6 months ago for 1 million. Yours is smaller and you figure it could have sold for 900k at the time. Now the house next door sells again, but for only 800k think time, a drop of 20%. What do you think you can price yours at? If it was 900k 6 months ago and market is now 20% lower based on the 1 comp, then yours will more than likely be valued at 720k, which is 20% lower.

Of course if yours is the cheapest on the street, it might command a higher price for anyone looking to enter the market, so there is wiggle room. But every single discussion on price starts with comps and recent sales.

Okay, you win.

 

[johnarb]

So are we clear? But I like the idea of me being a whale...

It's a dream of mine and yea, I expect you to deny it

It's something you cannot prove that you're not a whale, but you can prove that you are a whale (by signing a bitcoin wallet address that contains a lot of btc's)

Although I'm no longer a Taleb fan, his books "Fooled by Randomness" and "Black Swan" make me assign probabilities to unlikely events (tail risks) with consideration of survivorship bias

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Let's consider that a poster on ET was discussing bitcoin when it was around $2 to $15. What are the chances this poster put $1,000 at average price of $10 (100 BTC's)?

Survivorship Bias

Posting on ET indicates the person is not just a random street person but someone interested in the markets and trading and taking risks, a speculator, a gambler, who's willing to make a bet

Would we say 10% is fair? Let's reduce that chance by 80% since the posts were negative to BTC

• 2% chance this poster, let's call him P, has 100 BTC's

The negative posts during that time may just be because he did not want to be ridiculed by other posters. If I had gambled $1,000 during that time, I'd be embarrassed to admit it on the forum

There was no upside to being pro-BTC during that time since it was very likely BTC was going to just die

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100 BTC is not a whale

What are the chances that poster P actually invested $5,000 or $10,000 in to BTC at average price of $10?

For this, we would need to examine poster P's behavior

It's easy to quickly conclude that the volume of negative posts against BTC's would lower the 2% chance considerably, but I would argue that it would increase it

Survivorship Bias

Poster P is already an established BTC hodler so we're starting from a base probability of 2%, but now we're trying to determine if poster P is a whale

The constant negative posts means poster P is attempting to conceal that he owns BTC but with a much stronger shame of someone who only threw $1,000 into it

As the price of BTC keeps increasing, the incentive for poster P to conceal his 500-1000 (or more) BTC holdings becomes even greater, for security reasons

Let's be conservative and increase it by 1%

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Connclusion: ET Poster Mr. P has 2% chance of owning 100 BTC's and 3% chance of owning 500-1000+ BTC's

Unlikely but not impossible

 

[deaddog]

Connclusion: ET Poster Mr. P has 2% chance of owning 100 BTC's and 3% chance of owning 500-1000+ BTC's

Unlikely but not impossible

But what are the probabilities Mr p held on to them after they doubled or started to fall.

 

[johnarb]

But what are the probabilities Mr p held on to them after they doubled or started to fall.

I like this question and glad you asked. I did not want to make the post even longer plus this will be subjective

• It depends on the financial situation and intent of Mr. P

Using my financial situation at that time and my experience with playing options and payout, as the 100 BTC hodler, I would have sold all when it hit $100 giving me $10K which was a lot of money for me at the time and in-line with an options play, a 10x

With same parameters above, I will still be hodling more than 50% of the BTC's on the whale holdings. If I put that much into a position, it would have been a conviction play I believed in and after cashing out $10K when btc hit $100 (2013), I can ride the rest to life-changing wealth, possibly cashing out $100K or $200K at certain points but would never have completely sold out

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Conclusion:

Using me as a Mr P model

• 0% chance of Mr P 100 BTC hodler not being shaken out until now, (but could have fomoed back in at some point)
• 100% chance of Mr P 500-1000+ BTC hodler to be currently holding 300+ BTC's

 

[TrailerParkTed]

Of course its not zero sum, its negative sum

sum win, most lose

ponzi

if you enjoy vulgar enterprises, crypto is for you !

He had good intentions, not sure Charles was as evil as the Crypts.

 

[Pekelo]

So does the market cap of TSLA mean anything?

The market cap, not really. The existing cars, yes. What did crypto create beside 0s and 1s on a computer?

 

[Pekelo]

What part don't you like?

The stupid idea of be your own bank and the shitty technology. What else is there to like?

 

[Pekelo]

But what are the probabilities Mr p held on to them after they doubled or started to fall.

Exactly. Anybody who held from 3 dollars to 60+K is lucky, not skilled. And they probably held from 60k to 29K too. And from 20K to 3K, etc.etc.

Anyhow, the point is ATH is in, if people are looking for making 10X returns, there are options for that...

 

[JackMorgan]

Most $3 buyers enjoyed pizza not capital gains