Cause & Effect Trading! Cause & Effect Methods of Analysis!

[themickey]

Random does not mean unpredictable. Flipping a coin is random however after 1000 flips I know I will have roughly 500 heads. Start with that

Ok then tell me what the next flip will result in, head or tail?
A 50/50 result is random and unpredictable because your 'roughly' is random & unpredictable and who knows if roughly more heads will result than tails or vice versa.

 

[TheBigShort]

Ok then tell me what the next flip will result in, head or tail?
A 50/50 result is random and unpredictable because your 'roughly' is random & unpredictable and who knows if roughly more heads will result than tails or vice versa.

huh? Did you read my post? Random does not mean unpredictable. Randomness follows a distribution. You can predict long run events. For example the stock market is random (it's returns follow a skewed normal distribution) but in the long run it will increase by 9% a year etc... trading is about finding a whole bunch of strategies that are uncorrelated but all have a positive expected value. If I asked you after 100000 coin flips how many times do you think you would get heads. You would be able to tell me with high certainty....did you predict that? yes! Trading is about expected value not predicting the future LOL. Randomness is your friend if you understand it.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

share the helpful method to make money in the markets!

AlexMill,

Stare at the charts and look for opportunists to make money. Trade the opportunists and record the results. After 100-200 trades you can evaluate if the these opportunist really make money.

I am sorry to say, noone is going to share with you how they make money trading. Just like Warren Buffet will not announce what stocks he plans to buy soon.

Just pick a timeframe, stare at the chart

 

[themickey]

huh? Did you read my post? Random does not mean unpredictable. Randomness follows a distribution. You can predict long run events. For example the stock market is random (it's returns follow a skewed normal distribution) but in the long run it will increase by 9% a year etc... trading is about finding a whole bunch of strategies that are uncorrelated but all have a positive expected value. If I asked you after 100000 coin flips how many times do you think you would get heads. You would be able to tell me with high certainty....did you predict that? yes! Trading is about expected value not predicting the future LOL. Randomness is your friend if you understand it.

huh? Did you read my post? Random does not mean unpredictable.
YES IT DOES.

Randomness follows a distribution.
NO IT DOESN'T.

You can predict long run events.
NO YOU CAN'T BUT IN HINDSIGHT YES

For example the stock market is random (it's returns follow a skewed normal distribution) but in the long run it will increase by 9% a year etc...
NO IT WON'T. YOU ARE CHERRY PICKING THE MARKET AND THE TIME EVENT

trading is about finding a whole bunch of strategies that are uncorrelated
NO TRUE

but all have a positive expected value. If I asked you after 100000 coin flips how many times do you think you would get heads. You would be able to tell me with high certainty....did you predict that? yes!
NO, HAVE YOU EVER TRIED?

Trading is about expected value not predicting the future LOL. Randomness is your friend if you understand it.
RANDOMNESS IS NOT YOUR FRIEND IN TRADING.

What we have here is a typical weekend warrior, full of text book knowledge parrot quoting nonsense.
Coin flipping and trading should never be used in the same sentence, there is no similarities between the two. No one trades via coin flipping theory except noobs.
Random does mean unpredictable. However no one said you can't make money consistently trading.

 

[TheBigShort]

huh? Did you read my post? Random does not mean unpredictable.
YES IT DOES.

Randomness follows a distribution.
NO IT DOESN'T.

You can predict long run events.
IN HINDSIGHT YES

For example the stock market is random (it's returns follow a skewed normal distribution) but in the long run it will increase by 9% a year etc...
NO IT WON'T. YOU ARE CHERRY PICKING THE MARKET AND THE TIME EVENT

trading is about finding a whole bunch of strategies that are uncorrelated
NO TRUE

but all have a positive expected value. If I asked you after 100000 coin flips how many times do you think you would get heads. You would be able to tell me with high certainty....did you predict that? yes!
NO, HAVE YOU EVER TRIED?

Trading is about expected value not predicting the future LOL. Randomness is your friend if you understand it.
RANDOMNESS IS NOT YOUR FRIEND IN TRADING.

What we have here is a typical weekend warrior, full of text book knowledge parrot quoting nonsense.
Coin flipping and trading should never be used in the same sentence, there is no similarities between the two. No one trades via coin flipping theory except noobs.
Random does mean unpredictable. However no one said you can't make money consistently trading.

Yikes. Im not going to comment on your level of ignorance. But if tomorrows events were predictable there would be no money to be made in trading. So yes the element of randomness is your friend. If I am buying/selling a straddle I am making a bet on the element of randomness around the future stock price. You can graph and understand randomness....someone needs to go back to grade school. Anyways nothing to be seen here. move on.

 

[themickey]

Yikes. Im not going to comment on your level of ignorance. But if tomorrows events were predictable there would be no money to be made in trading. So yes the element of randomness is your friend. If I am buying/selling a straddle I am making a bet on the element of randomness around the future stock price. You can graph and understand randomness....someone needs to go back to grade school. Anyways nothing to be seen here. move on.

Here's an example of your logic:
"It is impossible to catch live fish in the Bay with 10lb breaking strain fishing line"
After an hour of useless arguing you then say.....
"It's whitepointer sharks I'm discussing, those you can't catch on 10lb fishing line"

 

[AlexMill]

Where are you, successfull traders? Need help!

 

[davelm]

I'm tired of losing money on Forex!

I have no savings left and I have problems in my family.

I'm tired of using technical indicators and moving averages, fundamental news, patterns and levels of support and resistance, trend following, market profile, volume analysis, COT reports, options analysis! Everything Sucks!

Now I'm trying to understand and use cause and effect methods like Volume Spread Analysis and Locked-in Range Analysis. And I understand again that I did everything wrong before. I understand that I was a Lucky-trader.

I like cause and effect trading and want to try it.
Do you know Cause & Effect Trading Strategies?

If you don't have any savings, then don't even try to trade. From what source would you trade? Only trade with money you are comfortable losing it.
I would recommend you to go back to demo trading and do it until you are successful for more than 3 months. I don't know about the strategy you are searching for, but I would recommend you to try price action trading. It's more easier to understand it than most of the strategies, because there aren't many indicators on your screen. Or if not this then try to find anther strategy and test it until you are not successful with it on a demo account.
Don't rely on your luck. You need it for trading, but being lucky on the market will not be profitable long-term.

 

[smallfil]

Nobody is going to give you their secret sauce or edge in the market. Why should they? Everyone is competing against everyone else! That is the reality of it. Also, if everyone is doing the same exact thing, where is your edge? I will give you two nuggets that if you learn them, will make you a better trader. One is risk management, you have to know how to determine the position size of your trade. Two, you have to trade with the trend and not against it! Try those two and you will be better than most traders!

 

[AlexMill]

Nobody is going to give you their secret sauce or edge in the market. Why should they? Everyone is competing against everyone else! That is the reality of it. Also, if everyone is doing the same exact thing, where is your edge? I will give you two nuggets that if you learn them, will make you a better trader. One is risk management, you have to know how to determine the position size of your trade. Two, you have to trade with the trend and not against it! Try those two and you will be better than most traders!

How are you determine the trend?