Cathie Woods says stocks not in a bubble, hilarious. I wonder why she thinks that......

[Overnight]

It's not just buying at the right time. Buffett was Obama's boy and crafted legislation to help his fund...and influenced the marked-to-market decision at practically the bottom of March 2009. We regular folk don't have those kind of connections or privileges.

Bullshit. We don't NEED those connections. All we need is a bit of wisdom based on history, and a bit of smart extrapolation.

Do you really think we are going to face another 2008 in our lifetimes? Buy, hold, roll. It would have worked back then, just as it is working now. And it will continue to work for generations to come.

LISTEN.

 

[MKTrader]

Do you really think we are going to face another 2008 in our lifetimes? Buy, hold, roll. It would have worked back then, just as it is working now. And it will continue to work for generations to come.

Well, valuations are higher and more ridiculous than they were in 2007, at least for stocks. And while I don't believe in hogwash like Elliot Waves or Gann, there is a pretty regular cycle every 18 years or so that hits stocks, real estate or both. (1973-4 bear market, early 90s recession and S&L crisis, 2008 crash in RE and stocks, etc.). A real estate investor wrote a book about it and it goes back several hundred years--though you can't pinpoint it perfectly. So, yes I think a 50% or possibly bigger drawdown could easily happen again in the next 10-15 years. The only argument against it is "bUt iNTeResT rAtEs aRE sO lOw!" That is definitely postponing the crash but can the really go on for multiple decades? Doubtful in my book.

 

[RedDuke]

Well, valuations are higher and more ridiculous than they were in 2007, at least for stocks. And while I don't believe in hogwash like Elliot Waves or Gann, there is a pretty regular cycle every 18 years or so that hits stocks, real estate or both. (1973-4 bear market, early 90s recession and S&L crisis, 2008 crash in RE and stocks, etc.). A real estate investor wrote a book about it and it goes back several hundred years--though you can't pinpoint it perfectly. So, yes I think a 50% or possibly bigger drawdown could easily happen again in the next 10-15 years. The only argument against it is "bUt iNTeResT rAtEs aRE sO lOw!" That is definitely postponing the crash but can the really go on for multiple decades? Doubtful in my book.

the longer it gets postponed the uglier it will be.

 

[Overnight]

Well, valuations are higher and more ridiculous than they were in 2007, at least for stocks. And while I don't believe in hogwash like Elliot Waves or Gann, there is a pretty regular cycle every 18 years or so that hits stocks, real estate or both. (1973-4 bear market, early 90s recession and S&L crisis, 2008 crash in RE and stocks, etc.). A real estate investor wrote a book about it and it goes back several hundred years--though you can't pinpoint it perfectly. So, yes I think a 50% or possibly bigger drawdown could easily happen again in the next 10-15 years. The only argument against it is "bUt iNTeResT rAtEs aRE sO lOw!" That is definitely postponing the crash but can the really go on for multiple decades? Doubtful in my book.

We already HAD a crash. 17 months ago! Why is that not good enough?!?! OY!

 

[MKTrader]

We already HAD a crash. 17 months ago! Why is that not good enough?!?! OY!

Because the market recovered in 5 months. That's never happened for a 30%+ crash before. The recovery after the 1987 crash (similar drawdown) was considered very fast--maybe not even a true bear market--and it still took 2 years before new all time highs were reached.

March 2020 simply a scare, and maybe a precursor for something down the road. True bear markets last 18+ months and it will take at least a few years for a full recovery. Be ready when it happens. You sound like you're putting your hope in wishful thinking--not reality.

 

[murray t turtle]

Same with Buffett cheerleading the markets in 2008, though he also helped craft legislation that helped him and is on the "legal" inside trading team.

%%
IT'S a wonder it took him so long to buy AAPL/LOL. I havent checked closing prices of her ARK ETfs. Good day for inverse tech THUR/good.
Frankly/ IBD made a fortune in tech stocks not counting on PE, even though tech stocks always tend to have high PE. FEW if, any tech buyers pay much attention to PE.
Actually , except for her bitcon purchases, which she disclosed,she seems to be much more honest than he...............................................................................................Thanks.
SPY may outperform QQQ this year/ but that's not a prediction

 

[cesfx]

I saw the interview, she did talk about innovating stocks, not the market in general.
This is a bit generalized.

I think she is doing great.

 

[S2007S]

And to the top the list this one goes. Her etfs are down 3x to 4x the markets drop at the moment.

I wonder what she thinks of this selloff now, still not in a bubble....she would definitely say nope!!!

 

[The_Krakenite]

I suppose, if one wishes to make an argument from her reference point (well who really knows what's in her head), it is POSSIBLE that we could NOT have been in a bubble.

If the interest-rates were set to remain at nil, then the market would indeed be sustainable at those levels. In fact, if Fed decides to lean into negative territory like Europe, there would be another large catalyst to the upside.

In any case, the gravy-train is coming to a stop, the dancing-chairs may be over.

 

[S2007S]

I suppose, if one wishes to make an argument from her reference point (well who really knows what's in her head), it is POSSIBLE that we could NOT have been in a bubble.

If the interest-rates were set to remain at nil, then the market would indeed be sustainable at those levels. In fact, if Fed decides to lean into negative territory like Europe, there would be another large catalyst to the upside.

In any case, the gravy-train is coming to a stop, the dancing-chairs may be over.

I still stand by negative rates, if you actually think the fed will be raising rates not once not twice, nope not 3 times but 4 times in 2022 you have to be an absolute idiot. There is no way they raise rates 4 times let alone 2, the fed will back out of any thought of rate hikes once they see the recession coming, yes I said recession, inflation should start dropping the next 3 to 6 months all while the fed pushes for a higher rate environment which at this moment is too late, I have said a million and 89 times that the fed should have been raising rates years ago but nope they waited, why did they wait you ask?? Well it's quite simple, they were feeding wallstreet what they wanted, powell and friends have been bowing down to wallstreet for many years. Not just powell but yellen and bubble ben as well. They are all contributors to the asset bubbles today. Once they Raise rates markets and the economy won't be able to handle it because underneath this entire fairytale economy lies many many weaknesses no one can see until after the fact they are shown. They are all there, but masked by the feds printing powers. Remove that and the real show starts. Right now the audience believes what they see to be real but it never was and never will be, the fed has literally been the director the entire time, watch what happens now, the real show will begin soon....