Catching the intraday High and Low

[Grob109]

Quote from golablue:

Grob-

I apprecaite the insightfulness with which you have kindly responded. I have been in the process of considering much of what you have discussed for a good deal of time. I was looking to understand if there are others who seek the same manifestation of price extremes on a daily basis by virtue of price action recognition.

That said, you make reference to the "traverse." I'm hoping that you may be so kind as to clarify what exactly it is that you mean by this term.

Best,

Golablue

I use traverse to describe the travel from one price extreme to the other.

there is a big shift in viewpoint when a person is projecting the travel potential on part of the right side of the screen. A scaling requirement is that the range of potential traverses be seeable by an intersection of these extremes with the right side of the screen. The creators apparently are not aware of how the market works nor how to perceive its operations.

you have seen comments by others that imply that they are always viewing the forming bar as being "against" the right side of the screen. they are mentally screwed vis a vis traverses because they cqannot see the space that the traverse will occupy as the near term future moves to the present on their screens. It is hard to imagine but software is still being sold today that does not let a person move the forming bar to the best vantage point (1/3 of the way from the right, usually). They simply are not seeing the market as a consequence.

The projection of th market's current operating point (meaning it's current range and the time for a traverse) to ensue in that near term future blank space among other things is an unnecessary truncation.

Simply projecting the envelope on three different fractals and being able to see all of them on the trading fractal is very important as baground for the near term future.

Why not put the W or M on the screen as the day begins. It is bounded by the next slower fractal's operating range.

Using rys to depict the volume ranges that determine the pace of price movement is helpful also.

 

[golablue]

Quote from Grob109:


Using rys to depict the volume ranges that determine the pace of price movement is helpful also.


Please excuse the ignorance, but what are "rys?"

 

[cnms2]

rays = significant reference levels

Quote from golablue:

Quote from Grob109:


Using rys to depict the volume ranges that determine the pace of price movement is helpful also.


Please excuse the ignorance, but what are "rys?"

 

[golablue]

I appreciate the responses.....as my quest to locate intrday H's/L's continues to evolve, I'll keep you posted. Thanks to all those who shared ideas, especially Grob.

 

[makosgu]

Quote from golablue:

I appreciate the responses.....as my quest to locate intrday H's/L's continues to evolve, I'll keep you posted. Thanks to all those who shared ideas, especially Grob.

It also may be of some interest to you that >90% of the time the H or L occurs within the first 90 minutes of the day... Acrary has done the statistical analysis for it... With a small bit of understanding, you can presume that thereafter, 90% of the time the market is migrating towards the opposite region of the H/L...

Kind Regards,
MAK

 

[mind]

Quote from makosgu:

It also may be of some interest to you that >90% of the time the H or L occurs within the first 90 minutes of the day... Acrary has done the statistical analysis for it... With a small bit of understanding, you can presume that thereafter, 90% of the time the market is migrating towards the opposite region of the H/L...

Kind Regards,
MAK

two things in addition:
first, since the market shows the wellKnown ushape in terms of vola it is only natural that most range takes place in the early part of the session.
second, "after 20% of the day you know by 90% probability that you have already seen the high or the low" seems impressing, but give it a second thought. the less time the market has to go until the bell, the less likely will she reach a specific point. plus this point is constantly moving further way the older the day.

my point is that a compelling sounding stat is at least to taken with care. maybe another example illustartes that better. take the current sp future, started the year at let's say 1275 (roughly rounded). now, after 2 months or about 20% of time we are trading 3% higher. consider the market is moving constantly throughout the year, let us say to 1400. you constantly calculate the probability to get back to 1275, which was the low of the year. even if the market remains constant this probability is constantly shrinking because remaining time to move is decreasing. so, two probabilities at two different times are no comparable.

... not sure if i came across with this ...

 

[Bearbelly]

Quote from mind:

[
... not sure if i came across with this ... [/B]

Is what you mean: even if this is true how do you make money with it?

 

[man]

more or less: yes. it sounds like a tradeable statistic, but the meaning of this statistic is not in line with what you usually expect from a probability to move somewhere. my point is that it is not like saying: today chances are 90% that it will go up. it is more: if you are at 100 there is 90% likelihood that you go to 101 before you go back to 90. the first prob is tradeable, the second is at least partially semantic fluke.

ah, and sorry, man and mind are two different handles of the same person: me.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from golablue:

After some extensive reading on ET, I have noticed something interesting regarding the trading strategies/styles most often employed. Rarely do we find people whose approach is solely focused on buying(selling) the low(high) and selling(buying) the high(low) of the day.

I've read tons about breakouts, retracements, trend following, fading S/R, pivots, Fibs, and range breakouts, but have uncovered little about strategies that focus only on price action as it pertains to locating the intraday H/L, independent of the aforementioned strategies.

My ideal trading day would be buying(selling) the low(high) of the day, and reversing at the high(low). Simple. 2 trades a day. Everyday.

Why are there not more traders who subscribe to this approach, and who DO NOT USE the aforementioned styles to coincidentally do this?

I'm hoping there are others out there who have been wondering the same thing, or who have some insightful information/ideas that they would be generous enough to share with ET members.

=============
Nice % of certain size gaps ,
certain directional gaps are high for day;
may happen in first hour or so.

Actually not much time or liquidity usually @ hi/lo;
chicago trends may help more.

Another answer to your question about ''top picking''
top pickers will be cotton pickers.
of course ther are exceptions.


After years/years /tears of some calling ''tops in housing stocks''
law of averages may have finally/finally/finally helped