Catalan Referendum: Shorting Banco Sabadell

I

Ivanko

In less than a month the Catalan Government plans to do an independence referendum and declare independence from Spain if it succeeds. Don't think this will go anywhere but the turmoil will affect catalan banks. These banks are an easy target to boycott from the rest of Spain, in which they have most of its deposits.

Among them I think Banco Sabadell is the one who could be in a critical situation if there is a bank-run contagion among catalan banks.

http://www.businessinsider.com/catalonia-split-spain-economic-impact-ing-2017-9

Disclaimer: I'm short $SAB

Opinions?
 
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There wont be anything remarkable about Catalan referendum due to they have tryed months ago unsuccessully becouse it is unconstitutional. In my opinion Catalan referendum proposal are just to win vote. Spanish media shouldn't focus attention there. They only want to sell news (wich are totally repeatitive and boring). I do not know the numbers about Sabadell's, but I know they recently made huge staff reduction (as many spanish banks) ordered by goverment after an auction. Reason is what they call "bad bank". By this days that huge reestructuration should be giving their benefits (btw Im not sure what is the impact of it about the share price)
 
I do think that the reestructuring has already been priced in the stock price increase from the last six months.
$SAB has a resistance around 2€, which hasn't been able to break recently, so I believe that with the referendum turmoil, ISIS terrorist attacks, spain unemployment increase and NK conflicts it can easily reverse to Dec'16 prices.

No upside and several downside catalysts.
 
Hi

I am surprised to hear so little about that topic in theses forums. It could be the cause of a large increase of volatility in Spain, not only for catalan banks. Political instability use to cause economic uncertainty.

I don't know if B. Sabadell will be one of the most affected because has clearly positioned itself against the referendum. So doesn't seem that will be the main target for a boicot. It seems that all banks and all companies can be affected by a time of confusion.

My opinion is that there is going to be big confusion and is going to start this week with the signature of a law in the catalan parliament that is going to make possible the referendum .
This time it is not like three years ago, this time is for real. The catalan goverment is now absolutely determined and any excessive movement by the spanish goverment will cause
social mobilizacions that will increase the confusion and obviously markets volatility. So in my opinion not easy solutions.

I support the referendum , for political and historical reasons. I believe catalan people must have the right to vote and decide.
 
I don't give a shit about your political views. There were several victims from my country in Barcelona attacks, and all you did is fill the memorial of the victims with independence flags. So please don't come here bullshitting about your nationalistic political views.

I'm here to make money. And shorting a catalan bank is a no brainer. I'm up 8% and I will close my short at 25% after your october 1st clown show.

$SAB today down -3%.

raf_bcn said:
Hi

I am surprised to hear so little about that topic in theses forums. It could be the cause of a large increase of volatility in Spain, not only for catalan banks. Political instability use to cause economic uncertainty.

I don't know if B. Sabadell will be one of the most affected because has clearly positioned itself against the referendum. So doesn't seem that will be the main target for a boicot. It seems that all banks and all companies can be affected by a time of confusion.

My opinion is that there is going to be big confusion and is going to start this week with the signature of a law in the catalan parliament that is going to make possible the referendum .
This time it is not like three years ago, this time is for real. The catalan goverment is now absolutely determined and any excessive movement by the spanish goverment will cause
social mobilizacions that will increase the confusion and obviously markets volatility. So in my opinion not easy solutions.

I support the referendum , for political and historical reasons. I believe catalan people must have the right to vote and decide.
More...
 
Wow what a polite post.
I would not talk like that evn to a person who had absolutelly opposite political views .
do not know which country you are from but I would like to think its citizens have more democratic sense than you, or at least more education.

Not interested at all in talking with you to refute the intelligent things you said . bye
 
In Catalonia the political situation is getting worse. The TV shows the military police "Guardia Civil" patrolling the streets and the municipalities of Catalonia are ready to stop paying taxes to the central government.

Adding to the short in Banc Sabadell @ 1.744€. Price target 1.5€ in two weeks.

Caixabank, another catalan bank much stronger than Banc Sabadell, cut to neutral by Goldman Sachs due to Catalan Referendum:
https://stocknewstimes.com/2017/09/...o-neutral-at-goldman-sachs-group-inc-the.html
 
dealmaker said:
Spain did not let Basques to secede with ETA bombing daily and they won't let Catalonia either ...
More...

Agree. And Ebola wouldn't kill the world population in 2015, but you could make a killing buying protection suit makers or biotechs that had a suposedly effective vaccine.

Catalonia crisis can easily create a bank run. The planned referendum is in less than two weeks, and there will be events after october 1st that will affect Catalan banks.
 
Ivanko said:
Agree. And Ebola wouldn't kill the world population in 2015, but you could make a killing buying protection suit makers or biotechs that had a suposedly effective vaccine.

Catalonia crisis can easily create a bank run. The planned referendum is in less than two weeks, and there will be events after october 1st that will affect Catalan banks.
More...

Possible, but isn't Banco Sabadell anti secession? If so they can expect help....
 
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