Short AIN for its lower guidance and shrink profit growth and trouble in paper business. Also if you want to hedge the market downside next week with possible sell off, AIN is a good short target. From TA, it is on a downtrend and next support point is around $33.
Here is the reason why is been downgraded:
"Albany International looks as though it has run into some problems. Despite indications of solid top-line growth, the company recently warned that earnings would likely be $0.36 a share in the fourth quarter (results were not released until this report went to press), $0.02 off the year-ago's pace and roughly half our previous expectation. The company continues to struggle with the high costs of raw materials, particularly resin, which is the main component in paper machine clothing (PMC), the material that carries paper through the paper-making process. PMC makes up more than three quarters of AIN's top line, making resin prices an extremely important determinant in profitability. Pricing pressures overseas were also cited as a detractor as were expenses associated with recent restructuring efforts. Accordingly, we've lowered our full-year 2005 earnings estimate by $0.40, to $2.20 a share.
However, we think the company is well prepared for the challenge. Albany has undergone major restructuring in the past few years, lowering its cost structure to be more in line with weaker demand. The most recent initiative was completed in 2004, and included the closure of four facilities and the elimination of 600 employees. Theses efforts should result in $40 million in annual savings. Meanwhile, Albany has announced that it will be opening its wallet and increasing its capital spending to $70 million to $80 million this year (almost double 2005's expected total). We suspect that a bulk of the money will be used to strengthen its Applied Technologies business, which produces materials and insulation for a wide array of goods from clothing to home furnishing. The increased penetration in these markets is a wise move in our opinion, given the softness we anticipate in the paper industry. Also, we would not be surprised if Albany utilized market weakness to venture into the acquisition market. Its financial flexibility (the company recently cleared more than $75 million in debt off its balance sheet) and strong cash flow make it a probable buyer.
Still, Albany holds little appeal at this time."