Cash & Carry

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Quote from MrsSavant:

update

no trades yet
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Ok more questions based on that capture

Balance = $1634
Unrealized P/L = $-311
Realized P/L = $-767

Questions

(1) Does this mean the liquidation value of this account at the time this was taken was $1323 (1634-311)?

(2) Where does the realized P/L come from, to me that looks like the system has been a net loser on trades or does that field simply reflect money removed from the account?
 
As far as the realized profit, Interest is not reflected there. Before I published Cash & Carry, I had losses, but used the same account. Every once in a while when I trade it goes down, but as I said Interest payments do not reduce it.

You see, I was scalping with Bollinger Bands once upon a time on the NZD/USD and I learned something. Guess what that was?

Yes 1634-311 is correct, see the NAV column and graph in the spreadsheet. Also, winter with your experience, could you advise me of any mistakes you discover. It's been a long road and many changes. I would feel terrible if those formula's have not ALL been fixed by now.

Just the other day Wifey and I found an error. Perhaps there are more. I should be following industry standards also. I do not have a support structure as I do all this myself with Wifey.

The product is setting down and less experiments and adjustments are being made. I can only foresee the "Gambling Meter being increased to 10 from 6, as capital is increased. The increments could be widened within their formula's too.

Michael B.


Quote from winter:

Ok more questions based on that capture

Balance = $1634
Unrealized P/L = $-311
Realized P/L = $-767

Questions

(1) Does this mean the liquidation value of this account at the time this was taken was $1323 (1634-311)?

(2) Where does the realized P/L come from, to me that looks like the system has been a net loser on trades or does that field simply reflect money removed from the account?
More...
 
And winter realize that if you find anything, Electric will beat me ever so bad...

Just kidding..Electric would not hurt a fly..and if he did I would smack him!

Wifey
 
Thanks for your previous reply, that helps.

What I'm still having trouble coming to grips with is where are the profits derived from in this system, interest or trading gains. Do you have simply breakdown that can say, of the $761 from 5/9 to 7/12, $XX came from interest and $YY came from trading. I don't understand why the trading gains should average out positive over time based on the methodology that you are using to trade.

Also in going through the old thread to try see if my questions have already been asked and answered I found this gem which basically hits my concerns on the head and I didnt realize see an answer:

Quote from illiquid:

I think this perspective is completely wrong.

The question is how much of an "edge" does taking advantage of interest rate differentials inherently have? On the surface it's not much better than just buying a 10-yr note and holding for the 4% or so -- in fact it's much worse, given the directional risk. I guess what I'm saying is that if anyone's "carry" system has any discrete edge to it, it's not because of the yield differentials at all, but the skill in timing and managing "given" positions. Anyone can see that going long AUD or GBP while shorting JPY will maximize your interest income, so by default this in itself cannot be an edge, as the market has already "priced in" the premium of that pair. Why not just open a futures account, place your capital in T-bills to earn risk-free interest, and just trade (or in your terms, "manage") directionally?
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I agree. This is troubling but how do I treat them? These cylces naturally occur within the system and can be expected.

Michael B.

P.S. very insightful may I say...

P.S.S. The spreadsheet should show the individual trades, I know. But the scaling techniques that I use would fill it up.


Quote from winter:

Thanks for your previous reply, that helps.

What I'm still having trouble coming to grips with is where are the profits derived from in this system, interest or trading gains. Do you have simply breakdown that can say, of the $761 from 5/9 to 7/12, $XX came from interest and $YY came from trading. I don't understand why the trading gains should average out positive over time based on the methodology that you are using to trade.

Also in going through the old thread to try see if my questions have already been asked and answered I found this gem which basically hits my concerns on the head and I didnt realize see an answer:
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Keep going winter. Your questions are already clearing up much for many...

I can only do so much pre-emptive stuff..I try to imagine something to go over indirectly in my posts here, as much as I can.

Wifey helps a lot too...

Michael B.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

I agree. This is troubling but how do I treat them? These cylces naturally occur within the system and can be expected.
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:confused:
 
I know, I know....but I do not have ALL the answers.


I could stop trading? and just collect. But these independent pairs would not hedge each other...A 10Y trend would wipe out the account if the average price does not stay near the current price.

This is a one-drectional system in each pair. You must pick the interest earning direction.


Quote from winter:

:confused:
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Quote from ElectricSavant:

Keep going winter. Your questions are already clearing up much for many...

I can only do so much pre-emptive stuff..I try to imagine something to go over indirectly in my posts here as much as I can.
More...
I'm just trying to understand if your excellent returns (which I consider 50% ROI to be) are the result of

(1) Lucky trends in the currency pairs you picked

(2) Your trading skills that may not be reflected by others trying to follow in your footsteps

(3) You have found the Holy grail of systems

I dont see how you can achieve these returns without taking corresponding risks. How big a move in one of your pairs would it take to wipe out your account?
 
The Base proportion & increment finder takes care of this. It could be widened to sustain catastrophic events, I suppose.

The gambling meter can be lowered by adding more cash to it..

A hedge can be put on, with an addition of a pair (s)

Michael B.

P.S. In trading there is always an unknown. but you can float in the "not gambling" side of the jacuzzi...


P.S.S. we just had a London Bombing event testing this system which was going into a DD to begin with. It hit 10%.




Quote from winter:

I'm just trying to understand if your excellent returns (which I consider 50% ROI to be) are the result of

(1) Lucky trends in the currency pairs you picked

(2) Your trading skills that may not be reflected by others trying to follow in your footsteps

(3) You have found the Holy grail of systems

I dont see how you can achieve these returns without taking corresponding risks. How big a move in one of your pairs would it take to wipe out your account?
More...
 
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