Cars Impervious to Wrecks

V

vanzandt

A buddy of mine just bought an F-150 this weekend. Brand spankin new. The one that is like 2 levels above the Raptor. We're talking an expensive truck here. He could care less but whatever.

So this thing has the electronics from hell. It even has a HUD of sorts. We're out driving this pig... and I'm all over all this superfluous bs... off the charts options.... (if there was ever a time to buy an extended warranty for real, buy one on this beast)... anyway... aside from some lane warning stuff that only works where lanes are well defined.... and closure rate warnings when a car stops ahead of you or a car that pulls out in front of you.... it seems to me this stuff is lightyears behind that which could actually be.

I think cars can be made wreck-proof. Or damn close.

Why am I writing this? Because say what you want, but TSLA is not a car company, they're a software company. I know they've had their mishaps, but when it comes down to data.... they know (AND OWN) more than anyone. Let me see an analyst attempt to put a price-tag on that. Its whatever the market will pay.

That stock was a steal a few weeks ago. If it ever drops like that again... bet the farm. Or bet it now.
That or... and I know its a dog but I believe in them too.... buy Ford stock. It's at $5 and it might go lower.... but I'm tellin' ya... something is gonna happen. GM, Chrysler/Fiat.... they all suck. Ford doesn't. Its a pig make no mistake, but soon enough... there's gonna be a merger between tech and old school car companies.

You can mark this post too.

Whatever.
 
Same "transformative" promises we heard in 2000. Tesla used the hype model very well. This enabled the company to fund crazy ideas without any rational capital budgeting.

As if decades of car production, sales and distribution know-how could be learned overnight. And yes, the 10 years or so Tesla has been around is overnight. It smacks of fraud and which some already pointed out. Capitalizing costs, over-promising, constant delays. The patterns are common, I don't need to pore thru the financial statements to see it. Though, i would have done it for fun long ago.

At best, when this company comes undone, we will be able to pick up some lessons and even make use of some of the technologies created while burning thru so many investors' capital.

Maybe he will come up with a fast medical testing machine as well. There is quite a bit of experience in Silicon Valley.
 
I still can't understand why people think tesla is a software company. I hear it from nearly every analyst and tesla bull. I honestly think that's one of biggest excuses on wallstreet to literally defy the almost $1000 stock price and the fact that they are worth more than Ford, gm and fiat Chrysler combined!!!!
 
xandman said:
Same "transformative" promises we heard in 2000. Tesla used the hype model very well. This enabled the company to fund crazy ideas without any rational capital budgeting.

As if decades of car production know-how could be learned overnight. And yes, the 10 years or so Tesla has been around is overnight. It smacks of fraud and which some already pointed out. Capitalizing costs, over-promising, constant delays. The patterns are common, I don't need to pore thru the financial statements to see it. Though, i would have done it the fun long ago.

At best, when this company comes undone, we will be able to pick up some lessons and even make use of some of the technologies created while burning thru so many investors' capital.

Maybe he will come up with a fast medical testing machine as well. There is quite a bit of experience in Silicon Valley.
More...
No one cares about cars. Its all in the value of their data. That can not be reproduced easily, because Elon owns the data that collected it.

But whatever, if you think its a pig, short it. That's a whole 'nuther game too brother. That's one's all math and we've all seen how it works out. But who knows, it could go to zero and you might be right.

Placing a value on TSLA's proprietary data aside however, I have driven them.... and it is in fact one fine car. Just sayin'.

You Brits.... god love ya.... at least you've got Sir Richard.
 
vanzandt said:
No one cares about cars. Its all in the value of their data. That can not be reproduced easily, because Elon owns the data that collected it.

But whatever, if you think its a pig, short it. That's a whole 'nuther game too brother. That's one's all math and we've all seen how it works out. But who knows, it could go to zero and you might be right.

Placing a value on TSLA's proprietary data aside however, I have driven them.... and it is in fact one fine car. Just sayin'.

You Brits.... god love ya.... at least you've got Sir Richard.
More...

Just a dude on the net prognosticating. I am short. I am also quite aware this stock could suddenly go to $1200 and rip my face off. We are living in crazy times.
 
xandman said:
Just a dude on the net prognosticating. I am short. I am also quite aware this stock could suddenly go to $1200 and rip my face off. We are living in crazy times.
More...
This one is all math, short vs. long. It doesn't matter what the markets do. What game in the casino has the worst odds? I know roulette is up there. But whatever, that's what it boils down to using logic on this stock. So just be careful. Virgin Galatic is the next one. Corona kinda messed up its game however.

Sit on your hands until all the financial press/media starts talking about how Branson's baby will never make a profit and has 2 years of cash left to survive..... then bet everything you own long.
 
vanzandt said:
A buddy of mine just bought an F-150 this weekend. Brand spankin new. The one that is like 2 levels above the Raptor. We're talking an expensive truck here. He could care less but whatever.

So this thing has the electronics from hell. It even has a HUD of sorts. We're out driving this pig... and I'm all over all this superfluous bs... off the charts options.... (if there was ever a time to buy an extended warranty for real, buy one on this beast)... anyway... aside from some lane warning stuff that only works where lanes are well defined.... and closure rate warnings when a car stops ahead of you or a car that pulls out in front of you.... it seems to me this stuff is lightyears behind that which could actually be.

I think cars can be made wreck-proof. Or damn close.

Why am I writing this? Because say what you want, but TSLA is not a car company, they're a software company. I know they've had their mishaps, but when it comes down to data.... they know (AND OWN) more than anyone. Let me see an analyst attempt to put a price-tag on that. Its whatever the market will pay.

That stock was a steal a few weeks ago. If it ever drops like that again... bet the farm. Or bet it now.
That or... and I know its a dog but I believe in them too.... buy Ford stock. It's at $5 and it might go lower.... but I'm tellin' ya... something is gonna happen. GM, Chrysler/Fiat.... they all suck. Ford doesn't. Its a pig make no mistake, but soon enough... there's gonna be a merger between tech and old school car companies.

You can mark this post too.

Whatever.
More...

I haven't really done any serious DD on TSLA. PEs aren't a great way to analyze it (there are better multiples) but I don't really care to calculate them right now and PE is available on yahoo.

Their forward PE is 241 (I used forward because their TTM PE is 0). That is, they are priced 241x forward earnings. I have to wonder where this number is coming from. Q1 2020 was their first year in their history posting positive net GAAP income. This would imply their real earnings multiple wouldn't even exist. You have to wonder where these analysts get their numbers. I'll tell you one thing - all analysts lie. They invent new numbers and project earnings favorably so their investment bank buddies can get deals with the companies when they need a place to stash cash. That's why you never see negative analyst reviews publicized, especially on hot stocks.

Look at simple comparables:

* NSANY: ~6
* F: lol
* TM: 8.35
* BYDDF: 49.10
* XKRX:005380 (Hyundai): 9.54


The funny thing about forward PE is it is basically made up. Some financial analyst sitting at Goldman who has to write a good report to eat fudged some numbers to create a DCF sheet that makes TSLA look hot as shit. You have to sit and wonder what TSLA analysts are smoking. If they value their drugs like they value TSLA, perhaps I don't want to know.

How is it possible a company who has up until this quarter never turned a dime of profit produce a forward PE almost 5 times greater than their nearest competitor? Market hype and hopium. TSLA is off the radar for me. There's just far too much risk in it's market. Especially because the second it becomes popular the big boys will eat TSLA's lunch and the company will either be acquihired or go under. I don't care how smart Elon is, he isn't smarter than car companies that have been around for hundreds of years.

Perhaps if it falls to a few hundred bucks it might be worth the buy. The book value is around 46 dollars a share, around 9.1B considering outstanding shares. The market cap on TSLA is 150B. This would imply to me a fair price might be somewhere in the range of $45-150 without doing any real 3 sheet analysis and just looking at the information on yahoo. Call me a miser but for some reason I don't think the book value will fairly compensate the investors when TSLA sinks and is forced to liquidate. The price is implying a $750 or so premium for the privilege of owning the stock. You should ask yourself what does this "extrinsic value" actually represent. It's not the patents or intellectual property. Most of it is free.

It might be worth considering at 2-3x book value considering how cutting edge the tech is, but well over 10x book value? No freakin' way.
 
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Hardly wreck proof, you cannot control what other vehicles are doing. Humans can be overloaded with data and it can do more harm than good. An autonomous vehicle is a different story though, especially when in communication with other vehicles.
 
vanzandt said:
A buddy of mine just bought an F-150 this weekend. Brand spankin new. The one that is like 2 levels above the Raptor. We're talking an expensive truck here. He could care less but whatever.

So this thing has the electronics from hell. It even has a HUD of sorts. We're out driving this pig... and I'm all over all this superfluous bs... off the charts options.... (if there was ever a time to buy an extended warranty for real, buy one on this beast)... anyway... aside from some lane warning stuff that only works where lanes are well defined.... and closure rate warnings when a car stops ahead of you or a car that pulls out in front of you.... it seems to me this stuff is lightyears behind that which could actually be.

I think cars can be made wreck-proof. Or damn close.

Why am I writing this? Because say what you want, but TSLA is not a car company, they're a software company. I know they've had their mishaps, but when it comes down to data.... they know (AND OWN) more than anyone. Let me see an analyst attempt to put a price-tag on that. Its whatever the market will pay.

That stock was a steal a few weeks ago. If it ever drops like that again... bet the farm. Or bet it now.
That or... and I know its a dog but I believe in them too.... buy Ford stock. It's at $5 and it might go lower.... but I'm tellin' ya... something is gonna happen. GM, Chrysler/Fiat.... they all suck. Ford doesn't. Its a pig make no mistake, but soon enough... there's gonna be a merger between tech and old school car companies.

You can mark this post too.

Whatever.
More...


so its a buy because you just saw the truck for the first time?

Not that i disagree because i am long the stock but fuck my experience tells me cheap shit stays cheap for a while, i been holding GE and Silver yeaaaaaaars and i woudlve done better if i held my dick isntead

none the less last year or so i started trading them instead of holding them in a seperate account and i made more than if they went back to their highs of 20s both GE and silver.

These stocks when they get low they somehow at least for me become easier to trade idk why

X and AA is another example

but tell me about your moral epiphany :-)
 
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