Carry Trades and the Yen

R

richard_m

I have a position in JYen futures so I have been keeping a pretty close eye on it lately. It is almost comical to watch the JY trade against the Index futures, especially in the afternoon EST after Europe closes. It is almost a tick for tick match with the ES. It has been like this for awhile. Everyone is sleeping with one eye open and one closed. If you think there aren't alot of carry trades on the books, THINK AGAIN. Give me strength.
 
I'd say the carry is just about to awaken.

I look at a few yen pairs and it seems that support is just about reached.

When I look at the GBP/JPY pair, I can see a reversal from 221.83 to 220.52. I expect this to go all the way to 245/247 so 2500+ pips there.
 
I am waiting for the carry to open back up...

Based on sentiment and COT data, as well as just basic economics...I don't think it will be long......


It's ridiculous how bearish everyone is on the USD...Seriously, the US has come back from the brink many times over.

I see why people were bearish to this point, because there was legitmate reason to believe the USD was going to take a hit...but man people act like the USD is about to totally collapse and we'll be living in some sort of Mad Max environment. It is ridiculous. We have too many nukes for that to happen.

Seriously.
 
Quote from richard_m:

I have a position in JYen futures so I have been keeping a pretty close eye on it lately. It is almost comical to watch the JY trade against the Index futures, especially in the afternoon EST after Europe closes. It is almost a tick for tick match with the ES. It has been like this for awhile. Everyone is sleeping with one eye open and one closed. If you think there aren't alot of carry trades on the books, THINK AGAIN. Give me strength.
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So what's your view? further unwinding or not?
 
Whenever I am long JPY futures (like I am now) I know every day costs money (negative carry). Can't wait for the next short entry :)
 
Quote from makloda:

Whenever I am long JPY futures (like I am now) I know every day costs money (negative carry). Can't wait for the next short entry :)
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heh heh yeah I am long JPY right now too. LOL


I am only in for usually 2-10 days, but I do think that this one may run out of steam soon. It hurts to be long the yen.
 
I am a trend trader so I don't have a view. I just react. I do find it interesting that right now my systems have me short AUD, GBP, CAD, and long Yen. (short USDJPY)

I have been long Yen on this current leg since 10/19. Yen is up so I am long.



Quote from Cdntrader:

So what's your view? further unwinding or not?
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Quote from richard_m:

I am a trend trader so I don't have a view. I just react. I do find it interesting that right now my systems have me short AUD, GBP, CAD, and long Yen. (short USDJPY)

I have been long Yen on this current leg since 10/19. Yen is up so I am long.
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being long yen may not be a bad thing.
 

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So far (he says sheepishly), the long yen trade has been working out okay. I am now loaded long to the maximum. We'll see.

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Here is the other side of the trade. Short AD also. It is times like these when it is hard to be a trend trader. When you feel like you should take profit. It is rewarding however when you get a big move down and you know you would have closed the trade if you were a discretionery trader. There is a small gap in price up above. Futures will often fill em.

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