Carnap´s chartroom

to posting #15


Below the level 4098 there is still a chance that the correction within wave (4) is still running. But the more today looks like a break out after completing a combi pattern flat x ZZ. With a back-test from the upside of the break out level 4079/80 .
If so the correction target area 4034-4006 have to be skipped.
For the started wave (5) we should expect decreasing trending/dynamic and ending pattern formation.

 
It is with irony to see today the break of the black trend line which indicates that a correction has started after ending of a short wave (5).
The target area for the correction pattern is 4053-22.
Most probably as a first standard pattern a ZZ downwards has to be expected.
 
Most probably the last spike counted as an ending of wave (5) was most probably only an overshooting correction pattern.
Therefore with the last minor high we have the confidence that a bigger correction has been triggered. This correction will have a first target at 4053-22 as said before.

 
Just a short update because I am travelling.
Today´s low at 4052, two points up of the target area mentioned.
But what is more interesting is the bounce following the low that had already reached the 62er retracement of the down move.
The conclusion is that only a wave ii is possible because wave b of an ZZ is not allowed to retrace more than 61.8% of wave a.
On the other hand a move over 4101 will suspend the scenario of a starting impulse to the downside and will implicate more activity to the upside including a new high.
But in the case that a down move starts, a running iii’ will have the potential to about 4010.
 
carnap said:
TD Sequential for S&P500 on daily. The actual running Sell Countdown is indicating new Highs.

From EW perspective the wave 5 did not show any weakness so far. Maybe it is not an impulse but rahther a ZZ or DZZ which indicates that a special impulse form is on the way.
More...

Not much change. TD Sell Countdown at number 5 and TD Combo at 13 but doesn´t fulfill the specification because the close of the countdown day is lower than the close of the previous trading day´s close.
That means a further day fulfilling all the specifications for the countdown day has to be expected.
 
NDX Overview:
What we have to expect for the next coming months: (hourly chart)

On the 5min chart still different possibilities to count the correction within wave (iv). Corrections are less predictable. We have to wait for violation of the extension level or a starting impulse wave down with an in-time low of the last up wave.
 
Below the red trend line a test of the support at 4077 has to be expected. A break of that level will indicate a min. retracement of 61.8 of the last up move that means 4073.
 
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