Carey's Journal

BOT 5 AAPL OCT 12 '12 625 Put Option 0.25 USD CBOE 14:14:01 OptTrader 3.80 null
expiring worthless

and

+ BOT 1 AAPL OCT 19 '12 + (1) 630 + (1) 665 - (2) 645 Call Combo 2.80 USD SMART 15:52:21 OptTrader 2.18 null

still sucking me in long
 
625 put oct 12 opex
<a target='_blank' title='ImageShack - Image And Video Hosting' href='http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/23/aapl625putoct12opex.png/'><img src='http://imageshack.us/a/img23/7030/aapl625putoct12opex.png' border='0'/></a><br>Uploaded with <a target='_blank' href='http://imageshack.us'>ImageShack.us</a>


630 put
<a target='_blank' title='ImageShack - Image And Video Hosting' href='http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/841/aapl630putoct12opex.png/'><img src='http://imageshack.us/a/img841/6128/aapl630putoct12opex.png' border='0'/></a><br>Uploaded with <a target='_blank' href='http://imageshack.us'>ImageShack.us</a>


635 call
<a target='_blank' title='ImageShack - Image And Video Hosting' href='http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/252/aapl635oct12opex.png/'><img src='http://imageshack.us/a/img252/6920/aapl635oct12opex.png' border='0'/></a><br>Uploaded with <a target='_blank' href='http://imageshack.us'>ImageShack.us</a>
630 call
<a target='_blank' title='ImageShack - Image And Video Hosting' href='http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/696/aapl630calloct12opex.png/'><img src='http://imageshack.us/a/img696/5333/aapl630calloct12opex.png' border='0'/></a><br>Uploaded with <a target='_blank' href='http://imageshack.us'>ImageShack.us</a>
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

my current under water positions..

680/700/730 = .60 got in at 2.32
i would close this down.. but i think i'll get more for it in the next couple of days..


whats working

640/660/685 = paid 3.70 now at about 4.20


break even on both is 646.02 at oct month opex..

my plan.. exit the further otm fly on the next jump up.. hold other till opex or it starts pushing hard through short 660 strike..

current value of both.. about 4.85 i'm down a little over a dollar cumulatively..
More...


+SLD 1 AAPL OCT 19 '12 + (1) 640 + (1) 685 - (2) 660 Call Combo 2.60 USD SMART 15:08:57 2.17 null


so this means.. i sold to cut my losses.. right now theta is gonna kill me .. i had to broken wings in this account.. i had 680/700/730 and the 640/660/685
my total cost on the two flys was 6.02 so i got more then cut in half lost 3.42 i was hoping to keep it close to half my total position.. but no big deal.. not a killer loss.. hindsight bias tells me i should have shut the 680/700/730 earlier and been better at cutting my losses.. that would have kept me at the half way mark... at this point.. time isn't on my side with these spreads..... i'd rather get cut in half on small trades that have asymmetic payoffs.. and make twice as many bets..

i still have a broken fly open in another account.. that this end of day rally is probably really helping!
 
<a target='_blank' title='ImageShack - Image And Video Hosting' href='http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/341/630645665oct20opex.png/'><img src='http://imageshack.us/a/img341/599/630645665oct20opex.png' border='0'/></a><br>Uploaded with <a target='_blank' href='http://imageshack.us'>ImageShack.us</a>

now i'm thinking about closing the broken fly... any surge up starts to hurt me....i basically would betting on it retraceing a little by holding it at this point..
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

+SLD 1 AAPL OCT 19 '12 + (1) 640 + (1) 685 - (2) 660 Call Combo 2.60 USD SMART 15:08:57 2.17 null


so this means.. i sold to cut my losses.. right now theta is gonna kill me .. i had to broken wings in this account.. i had 680/700/730 and the 640/660/685
my total cost on the two flys was 6.02 so i got more then cut in half lost 3.42 i was hoping to keep it close to half my total position.. but no big deal.. not a killer loss.. hindsight bias tells me i should have shut the 680/700/730 earlier and been better at cutting my losses.. that would have kept me at the half way mark... at this point.. time isn't on my side with these spreads..... i'd rather get cut in half on small trades that have asymmetic payoffs.. and make twice as many bets..

i still have a broken fly open in another account.. that this end of day rally is probably really helping!
More...

this 640/660/685 i sold right exaclty before the move up.. its trading at 6.60 now.. ironic that i sold the exact moment before it broke up..
 
time to dip into a few books.. i've gotten some good advice... sit on my hands and wait for an edge.. things are so counter intuitive sometimes.. sometimes the work of trading is to not trade! anyway.. time to dig into a few good books that were recommended to me.. "Options futures, and other dervatives John Hull.. i am told its a really good book.. by the looks of the contents i'm excited..

thought this was an interesting article..
http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/10/01/exploiting-crack-spreads-with-options?t=options

was thinking about getting a subscription to this mag..
 
Its like your compiled the different material costs in futures minus the end product and the speculate on the changing spread... crack spread and widow maker spread caught my eye...
 
i think you could have a computer watch that and always tabulate the relative value and ,figure out a high and low and trade back and forth to the mean but i think you would have to trade all 3 products,therefore large firm,probably have a handful of guys devoted to it..all just a guess
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top