Career as FX technical analyst/chartist

[Zzzz1]

agree with you on the concept of prudent risk management. But I cannot disagree more on your comments re probability. Everything in the market is about probabilities, exactly because what you said is true, inherently we all face uncertainty and there is no "always" or "never". But we can attach and attempt to fix probabilities to all possible outcomes. We will never reach perfection in measuring and estimating probabilities but we can do reasonably well. In fact whole branches of trading rely entirely on attaching probabilities to certain outcomes and factoring those into position taking and position sizing, e.g., options trading.

I have great respect for Bruce Kovner, but I believe he has been misunderstood in this quote. Charts are just a visualization of prices. I believe what he wanted to say is that even with a fundamental approach one needs to also take into account the actual price of an asset before investing in it. I do not believe that he attached any particular importance to charts vs price levels.

You could say the same about FA, stats, etc. Regardless of how you define "consistently." Whatever decision criteria you use, you will lose everything unless you incorporate meaningful risk control, because you cannot remove the randomness out of uncertainty. Forget "probability." That's more wishful thinking than fact in the markets. The markets are more about uncertainty, which is an opaque and distant cousin of probability, and requires greater allowances for error. So if you can find a means of occasionally catching a move while risking relatively little, who cares what it's called? But I think that, on balance, you'd be hard-pressed to do so without considering preceding market data, especially the immediately preceding market data, if you are to achieve anything resembling consistency and tightly controlled risk in some form.

Bruce Kovner, who relied heavily on FA, had this to say:




He also adroitly observed:

"Technical analysis, I think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo… There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the future. Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders."

 

[Frederick Foresight]

FYI
TECHNICAL ANALYST OF THE YEAR
Finalists:

George Davis, RBC Capital Markets
Paul Desmond, Lowry Research Corporation
Jean-Charles Gand, BBSP
Steve Miley, Market Chartist
Guido Riolo, Bloomberg
David Sneddon, Credit Suisse
Stephen Suttmeier, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Ari Wald, Oppenheimer & Co

Winner:

Ari Wald, Oppenheimer & Co

Goldman Sachs Senior Technical Analyst Salaries
The average Base Salary for Goldman Sachs Senior Technical Analyst is $91,074 per year, ranging from $81,792 to $100,593. Salaries calculated from 24 profiles. Men outnumber women by 4 to 1. 38% are Asian. From recent job postings for Goldman Sachs Senior Technical Analyst, we know that 33% of Goldman Sachs Senior Technical Analyst need to know Unix. From recent job postings for Goldman Sachs Senior Technical Analyst, 67% of Goldman Sachs Senior Technical Analyst need to have a Bachelors degree.
Updated November 17th, 2016

Goldman Sachs technical analyst getting more bearish on the Australian dollar – charts
Thu 24 Apr 2014 22:30:21 GMT
Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

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ADDED – More technical analysis here, from Credit Suisse, covering EUR, JPY, GPB, CHF, AUD, NZD and CAD

–

Sheba Jafari, a technical analysts at Goldman Sachs is becoming more confident the bearish view for the AUD, noting that net positioning has turned long for the first time since May 2013:

I have no connections with any of the key outfits, either directly or indirectly, so I cannot claim to know how they operate. However, I'm surprised that some or any of them would have technical analysts who did nothing but analysis. I think people who actually trade already know what they are looking for; they already have their decision criteria. They wouldn't need a technical analyst any more than they would need someone to read them the newspaper.

The people who employ TA in some form or other do so within the confines of their own decision criteria, context, risk profile and so on. I would think it's a very personal thing, specific to the trader and borne of much personal effort to arrive at a set of coherent rules by which to play the market. I cannot imagine that any serious trader would rely on copy-and-paste, generic TA. And I agree with Kovner who, as I noted above, said that there is much that is wrong and mumbo-jumbo about TA. But let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

 

[Zzzz1]

If anything, even you should admit that the risk of being scammed on this website or any other retail trading related website by snake oil salesmen, that tout technical analysis related material , is higher than being scammed by anyone else.

Nothing to do with TA or not TA, I never entered the TA debates. I loathe Marketsurfer and what he represents. I have nothing against you (unless this is another MS alias). I was scammed many, many years ago. Marketsurfer fits that profile. He is just another low level con artist.

 

[Southampton]

agree with you on the concept of prudent risk management. But I cannot disagree more on your comments re probability. Everything in the market is about probabilities, exactly because what you said is true, inherently we all face uncertainty and there is no "always" or "never". But we can attach and attempt to fix probabilities to all possible outcomes. We will never reach perfection in measuring and estimating probabilities but we can do reasonably well. In fact whole branches of trading rely entirely on attaching probabilities to certain outcomes and factoring those into position taking and position sizing, e.g., options trading.

I have great respect for Bruce Kovner, but I believe he has been misunderstood in this quote. Charts are just a visualization of prices. I believe what he wanted to say is that even with a fundamental approach one needs to also take into account the actual price of an asset before investing in it. I do not believe that he attached any particular importance to charts vs price levels.

Yep, agree 100%. Thank you for clarfying Kovner. These TA true believers will hang on and misinterpret every utterance from a succesful manager to their benefit. No wonder the market is so rich, yet the TA practioners are so poor--it is the inability to see reality.

Hampton

 

[Southampton]

If anything, even you should admit that the risk of being scammed on this website or any other retail trading related website by snake oil salesmen, that tout technical analysis related material , is higher than being scammed by anyone else.

He is obviously an angry stealth vendor exposed by myself or a member of the team.

 

[Zzzz1]

you must be kidding right? Ok here is your example: Short when RSI(14) exceeds 70 and Long when Rsi(14) reaches 30. I show you that with ANY data point compression of your choice, with ANY stop loss level of your choice, with ANY take profit level of your choice this strategy more or less consistently loses money. Here is your example of something that consistently does not work and it is 100% TA based.

Now its your turn, show a purely TA based approach that consistently works.

By the way, I never equated price movement itself with TA. Why are you claiming I cannot read price movement just because I resort TA to hogwash? And please let's not start all over asking me to define TA, this has been done in hundreds of threads here, if you have issues understanding what it means simply do a search.

Waiting for your example where TA consistently works.

It would be easy to show 10 such examples. But you would just say that there are 1000 such cases where it didn't work.
But saying what you did seems to be a fixed phrase for people on your side of the fence, and we have all heard it a thousand times. However, I have never even once seem people like you come out and show examples of how TA didn't work. I could show examples of failures. But as you obviously can't read price movement, you can't, can you? All you can do is say that what you don't understand doesn't work. Well, I don't understand gardening, but I don't say it doesn't work just because I don't know how to do it.. So, if you're so sure about what you say, show us, or stop talking through your hat in unrelated threads.

 

[Zzzz1]

so large shops and professional traders are not demanding accurate analysis that creates low risk, high reward trading ideas? I guess what you actually wanted to say is that professionals are not as easily conned.

I've reached a point where I'm glad that people talk down on TA. More of an edge for me. And NO, I'm not gonna get into a debate about it as my P/L statement is all of the validation I need.

As for the original question at hand. I would think that you'd probably be better off offering your analysis to independent traders or small shops instead of going the institutional route. There's a demand for accurate analysis that creates low risk, high reward bets...despite what people on here would have you believe.

 

[learner2007]

However, I'm surprised that some or any of them would have technical analysts who did nothing but analysis.

FA done by the Security Analyst can tell the fund manager what to buy. But it cannot say when to buy. Only TA can do that. But for the individual, TA can do both.

 

[Zzzz1]

funniest post of the entire thread so far. I am sure all Putnam, Fidelity, and other PMs heavily rely on their host of Technical Analysts to time their trades. I am out of here, I respect your world view though cannot disagree more. Hope everyone finds what they are looking for and, more importantly, where they are looking for.

FA done by the Security Analyst can tell the fund manager what to buy. But it cannot say when to buy. Only TA can do that. But for the individual, TA can do both.

 

[learner2007]

Ok here is your example: Short when RSI(14) exceeds 70 and Long when Rsi(14) reaches 30.

So, now we see your problem. You refer to indicators. Well I think you will find that those of us who use TA as it was originally designed give no weight to indicators. So, rather than judge TA based on indicators, you may want to study and learn the TA that has been used for over 100 years and has stood the test of time. Then you should be able to determine if it is random or not.