card counting and scalping

Oh really, ok I'll bite. Let's say we are back in pre dec. times
and I am on the NYSE bid for 4000 xyz (with the book showing 25000+bids) for 1/4 and get hit for the whole thing and right away the market is 1/4 offered and 1/16 bid since there was print of 5000000 xyz trading at 1/4
now you are hooked and the bids are evaporating and you were going to make (maybe) a 1/4 but now you are losing a 1/2 point before you can weasel out. How do you find the edge. In your asshole in a form of a horseshoe? He, lucky?
But since we do not even have dec. trading you think you can outfox and outmuscle the specialist who has the actual order flow? Let me hear how?
Quote from Steve Tvardek:

Good scalpers dont rely on "chance", they know when the odds are in their favor and they take the trade. They then rely on proper risk management and price action interpretation to determine how to play the trade out from there. Simple really.
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I never said anything about outfoxing the specialist. A good trader/scalper takes a trade based on what he/she determines is a good r/r. Once in the trade, its up to the trader to determine if the circumstances are still favorable and, from there, plays out the trade as he/she sees fit.

Of course there is some degree of chance in every single trade, but a good trader doesnt "rely" on it to be profitable. I'm sure you have had several trades were you got lucky based on what happened and others trades where you got f-cked way more than you should of given the circumstances. Net/net though, good traders are profitable b/c they take good trade setups and then either stick with them (or add to) the good ones and bail when the trade shows signs that its not going to work out.

Btw, whats the point in using an example from 6+ years ago? Not relevant today wouldnt you say?


Quote from andrasnm:

Oh really, ok I'll bite. Let's say we are back in pre dec. times
and I am on the NYSE bid for 4000 xyz for 1/4 and get hit for the whole thing and right away the market is 1/4 offered and 1/16 bid since there was print of 500000 xyz trading at 1/4
now you are hooked and the bids are evaporating and you were going to make (maybe) a 1/4 but now you are losing a 1/2 point before you can weasel out. How do you find the edge. In your asshole in a form of a horseshoe? He, lucky?
But since we do not even have dec. trading you think you can outfox and outmuscle the specialist who has the actual order flow? Let me hear how?
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Quote from JimmyJam:

In theory, good trading is exactly the same as card counting when playing Blackjack.
Blackjack
When cardcounting, you are "keeping count" of the cards, not playing when you have a low probability of getting the "high cards" (presumably 18-21) and playing large sums when you have a high probability of getting the "high cards".
Options
When trading options, many traders only trade volatility. When vol is low they take positions, working on the belief that vol will increase (sometimes substantially, though that is never a totally known quantity).
Futures
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Electronic devises are banned at casinos ,but one can use any application when trading options. If trading and gambling is "exactly" the same (carry same odds&prob) , why would MM allowed you to use apps and make "free" money on risk arbs opportunities ?
 
Quote from IV_Trader:

Electronic devises are banned at casinos ,but one can use any application when trading options. If trading and gambling is "exactly" the same (carry same odds&prob) , why would MM allowed you to use apps and make "free" money on risk arbs opportunities ?
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In theory, man, in theory.

We all know in practice that gambling institutions do a number of things to mitigate/eliminate any edge that a good gambler might have.

Truth to tell, I understand that a lot of trading institutions do what they can to mitigate a trader's edge as well, just not nearly to the same degree as a gambling house does. (although with what I hear about some of these FX houses, there really ain't too much difference)

Happy 4th,

Jimmy
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

In theory, man, in theory.

We all know in practice that gambling institutions do a number of things to mitigate/eliminate any edge that a good gambler might have.

Truth to tell, I understand that a lot of trading institutions do what they can to mitigate a trader's edge as well, just not nearly to the same degree as a gambling house does. (although with what I hear about some of these FX houses, there really ain't too much difference)

Happy 4th,

Jimmy
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agree
:)
 
What would be the reason or a trading house to do this?...A casino owns the money, where a trading house collects commish...??????

Look I am not naive or anything like that...but in theory....


Quote from IV_Trader:

agree
:)
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Quote from ElectricSavant:

What would be the reason or a trading house to do this?...A casino owns the money, where a trading house collects commish...??????

Look I am not naive or anything like that...but in theory....
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1. Bad fills on market orders in fast moving markets.

2. Not filling market orders in slow moving (tepid) marks.

3. Not filling limit orders in fast moving markets.

4. Running Stops (most likely placed at key S/R levels).

These are just some of the things that trading houses do/have done/I have experienced ... I'm tell'in ya, it's totally changed my trading :p !

I don't have any experience with it, but I've spoken with a few options brokers as well (live in NYC, you can meet anybody in a bar or restaurant - especially if you hang-out near Wall, Broad streets, or Park Ave.), and from his/their perspective, the retail customers are viewed as marks/prey animals/suckers, etc..

We all know what's up with the FX scene (uh, especially you Electric), now deem dere's just some shark infested waters!

Why? Well, I don't know the answer to that one, whether it's just natural compeititveness, greed, etc., I'm just report'in the experiences.

Later,

JJ

P.S. ... and don't even get me started on real estate!
 
I have never made the right choices in my business decisions...except one..I picked the correct dealer/marketmaker to execute my Retail Spot Forex trades with...This was my first choice in June 2004 and I never have looked elsewhere other than to make another correct choice in my secondary dealer/marketmaker...in which I can find none...

They allow me to make money and are happy with collecting their spread from my numerous scalps, short term trades and position trades...I give them a lot of business, the longer I survive.

Michael B.
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

I don't have any experience with it, but I've spoken with a few options brokers as well (live in NYC, you can meet anybody in a bar or restaurant - especially if you hang-out near Wall, Broad streets, or Park Ave.), and from his/their perspective, the retail customers are viewed as marks/prey animals/suckers, etc..
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what is your/their definition of "retail option trader" ?
 
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