Can't Go Wrong with Gold - Peter Schiff

Your Gold Outlook

  • Bullish

    Votes: 13 59.1%

  • Neutral

    Votes: 4 18.2%

  • Bearish

    Votes: 5 22.7%
  • Total voters
    22
S

shortie

Bearish gold case No. 1: The debt ceiling is not raised and enough cuts are made to avert a default.
Unlikely

Bearish gold case No. 2: The debt ceiling is raised and the federal budget is balanced.
Unlikely

Bulllish Case No. 1: The debt ceiling is not raised and the U.S. defaults on Treasury debt.
Unlikely

Bullish Gold Case No. 2: The debt ceiling is raised and there are symbolic cuts in spending.

This scenario is by far the most likely outcome of the debt talks in Washington; they will raise the debt ceiling and make spending cuts which sound substantial, but which only mange to slow the accumulation of new debt.
....
Clearly, this is bullish for precious metals. It means more of the same -- more spending, more debt, and necessarily more money-printing.

,,,,

Despite gold once again hitting new highs, I can only recommend my readers continue to keep a healthy portion of their portfolio in precious metals. Given the sad realities of the US fiscal and monetary situation, it's prudent to assume that nothing will be solved by August 2.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11203732/3/bullish-bearish-gold-scenarios-for-default.html
 
Originally posted Feb 16, 2011.
When DOW/S&P500 correction gathers momentum I expect:
UP ~ USD, various USDXXX currencies, VIX Index
DOWN ~ EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GOLD/SILVER, Base metals like
COPPER etc, CRUDE OIL.
stockmarket618.wordpress.com
 
Quote from shortie:



Bullish Gold Case No. 2: The debt ceiling is raised and there are symbolic cuts in spending.

This scenario is by far the most likely outcome of the debt talks in Washington; they will raise the debt ceiling and make spending cuts which sound substantial, but which only mange to slow the accumulation of new debt.
....
Clearly, this is bullish for precious metals. It means more of the same -- more spending, more debt, and necessarily more money-printing.
More...


Why is it bullish? Where did he get the printing idea? The whole idea of debt is not to print????
 
Schiff does not look at Gold via this formula:

Gold_Price= Inflation_Fear + Additional_Stuff + Generic_Fear

He fails to mention that "Generic_Fear" (similar to fear we see in VIX) may have been overblown in the last 2 weeks and could drag Gold down short-term after the deal is in.

Maybe Schiff only looks long term. Is he supposed to be any good? i see many of his articles on the web.
 
Quote from shortie:

Schiff does not look at Gold via this formula:

Gold_Price= Inflation_Fear + Additional_Stuff + Generic_Fear

He fails to mention that "Generic_Fear" (similar to fear we see in VIX) may have been overblown in the last 2 weeks and could drag Gold down short-term after the deal is in.

Maybe Schiff only looks long term. Is he supposed to be any good? i see many of his articles on the web.
More...

what do you guys think about my formula? GLD +3% today. Has Gold become pure fear play, "General_Fear"?
 
S&P measured in Gold is quickly approaching March 2009 low. 100% gain bull market was a total fake!
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1. When you first coined the ben's line, that was the thought that came to mind. Never go to write about it.

2. Why did you not call the bottom in your post? You think it would break? Would the rest of this week see a rally? I think the latter.
 
last Friday SPY 130 Aug 05 straddle was priced 1.88+2.23 = $4.11
SPY 129.55

My hypothesis at that time was that Long straddle was a loser. Right now SPY 125.10 is around where it should be on Friday Aug 05 based on that straddle. As of today the straddle turned out to be a winner but may still become a loser by Friday (if the hypothesis is correct).

Yes, i think we will bounce into Friday close (flat is the worst case, unless there is a nuclear war)
 
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