My approach is to view my trading business as a 30 year venture.
Starting around 1995... $CN 75 to 65 to 87...
So only about 1%/year factor last decade... and will be less over 30 years.
If you hedge the $CN now...
You are making a ** directional bet ** that $CN will keep rising.
The hedge you put on profits if it goes to 100... loses if back down to 80.
It's exactly as much of a gamble than not hedging.
The only reason you should hedge...
Is if there are ** widely disproportional ** outcomes for your business from up/down...
Such as you might actually go out of business.
This can be the case with a goods exporting/importing company with thin margins...
But would not typically apply to a trading firm.
rm+
