Canadian housing bubble thread

JSOP said:
With the prime rate at projected 2.7% for 2017 in Canada, it's EXTREMELY unlikely that it would jump to 7-8% LOL. I don't know where you get this forecast. Tbh, I expect the Canadian prime rate to drop in 2017 given the soft state of economy and Trump busting our balls on the NAFTA agreement.
And FYI, in addition to the qualification for Subprime loans to be higher (which it should be), it's also that there is no fraud or VERY little fraud in the subprime mortgage underwriting process. It's NOT the existence in the Subprime mortgage that caused the financial crisis in 2008; it's the extensive fraud in the subprime mortgage underwriting process and the deliberate cover-up of those fraud by those rating agencies that caused the collapse.
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It sounds like your over mortgaged. I did not give a time frame for increased interest rates, but it's inevitable. When it happens and your mortgage comes up for renewal good luck! And god forbid you loose your job or your replaced by somebody earning a third of your salary, you're SOL. It's like kayaking without a paddle.
Your saying rates will drop because of Trump, and low CAN$, I guess you're willing to pay more for imports. It's already 1.30 for US$ at TD. you want to pay $1.35 or $1.40. Best you stay home and save your toonies for your mortgage payment, the looney may disappear like the penny.
BTW Asian investors keep Can property prices aloft. Your buddy Trump is changing that by attracting Asian investors just like Canada with investor visa with a kicker, reduced foreign income tax. Imagine Asian investors exiting Canada in mass. And mortgage interest rates adjusting to historical norm, on top of property tax increase for foreign investors. You can keep living the dream until the nightmare begins, it'll keep you up all night.
 
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lylec305 said:
It sounds like your over mortgaged. I did not give a time frame for increased interest rates, but it's inevitable. When it happens and your mortgage comes up for renewal good luck! And god forbid you loose your job or your replaced by somebody earning a third of your salary, you're SOL. It's like kayaking without a paddle.
Your saying rates will drop because of Trump, and low CAN$, I guess you're willing to pay more for imports. It's already 1.30 for US$ at TD. you want to pay $1.35 or $1.40. Best you stay home and save your toonies for your mortgage payment, the looney may disappear like the penny.
BTW Asian investors keep Can property prices aloft. Your buddy Trump is changing that by attracting Asian investors just like Canada with investor visa with a kicker, reduced foreign income tax. Imagine Asian investors exiting Canada in mass. And mortgage interest rates adjusting to historical norm, on top of property tax increase for foreign investors. You can keep living the dream until the nightmare begins, it'll keep you up all night.
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Just some economy lesson for you： When the economy of a nation is weak, the monetary policy to stimulate the economy is usually to keep or reduce the interest rate to very low level. The central bank of Canada, Bank of Canada is already doing that. While the Federal Reserve in USA has raised the interest rate twice already, Bank of Canada is yet to raise the interest rate from its lowest level in history. With the interest rate represented by what is called "Overnight Rate" at 0.25%, it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that the mortgage rate would all of sudden jump to 7- 8%. I can over mortgage all I want but I know for a fact that it won't increase to 7 - 8% LOL even if I lose (not loose - loose is something that is opposite of "tight". Some free English lesson for you) my job.

And some facts for you: The USD/CAD rate is currently at 1.37xx NOT 1.30 from TD, maybe when the Bank is trying to sell CAD to you for USD, but when you want to buy USD with CAD, it's 1.37XX or even higher. And it has NOTHING to do with Canadian being an importer. It has to do with Canada not being able to make money through oil, the most lucrative export that Canada has anymore thanks to Saudi breaking the OPEC quota suppressing the oil price AND our last PM not investing enough when we had the money in alternative energy and other ways to make money. If tomorrow the oil goes back up to rates in 2015, you will see the USD/CAD going back down to below 1 again.

Finally some advice to you: If you want to troll on ET, at least do SOME research about the economy, economic principle and investing beforehand otherwise you come across as very dumb, to put it bluntly. I won't be reading your posts anymore because I will be putting you on my "Ignore" list but others still will.

Good luck!
 
JSOP said:
Just some economy lesson for you： When the economy of a nation is weak, the monetary policy to stimulate the economy is usually to keep or reduce the interest rate to very low level. The central bank of Canada, Bank of Canada is already doing that. While the Federal Reserve in USA has raised the interest rate twice already, Bank of Canada is yet to raise the interest rate from its lowest level in history. With the interest rate represented by what is called "Overnight Rate" at 0.25%, it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that the mortgage rate would all of sudden jump to 7- 8%. I can over mortgage all I want but I know for a fact that it won't increase to 7 - 8% LOL even if I lose (not loose - loose is something that is opposite of "tight". Some free English lesson for you) my job.

And some facts for you: The USD/CAD rate is currently at 1.37xx NOT 1.30 from TD, maybe when the Bank is trying to sell CAD to you for USD, but when you want to buy USD with CAD, it's 1.37XX or even higher. And it has NOTHING to do with Canadian being an importer. It has to do with Canada not being able to make money through oil, the most lucrative export that Canada has anymore thanks to Saudi breaking the OPEC quota suppressing the oil price AND our last PM not investing enough when we had the money in alternative energy and other ways to make money. If tomorrow the oil goes back up to rates in 2015, you will see the USD/CAD going back down to below 1 again.

Finally some advice to you: If you want to troll on ET, at least do SOME research about the economy, economic principle and investing beforehand otherwise you come across as very dumb, to put it bluntly. I won't be reading your posts anymore because I will be putting you on my "Ignore" list but others still will.

Good luck!
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there are many variables that affect interest rates and the economy. You're the only one that said the increase will happen over night. But when it gradually increases to normal levels, people like you will be over mortgaged. And eventually lose your job...
 
Canadian mortgage interest rates will eventually go up. The economy is over due for correction. Can mortgages are term. Many Canadians have 800+k balloon mortgages and if you're not earning 300k annually, you're staring at financial ruin. That's not LOL.
 
Monthly Canadian house price data can be found at
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx

Last publication date:
5/12/2017

Next publication date:
6/14/2017

For April 2017, the composite 11 index rose 1.16% month/month, for a year/year gain of 13.38%.
Index level 206.41.

The composite 6 index rose 1.20% month/month, for a year/year gain of 14.48%.
Index level 209.94. This index excludes Hamilton, Edmonton, Quebec, Winnipeg, Victoria.

More detailed reporting can be found under the "Communiqués" tab.

Alternatively:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/canada-house-price-data-centre-may-12/article29697029/
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/rea...-market-keeps-rising-teranet/article34966709/
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/05/12/house-prices-canada-teranet_n_16579978.html

Toronto +2.61% month/month
Vancouver -0.12% month/month

.
 
m22au said:
For April 2017, the composite 11 index rose 1.16% month/month, for a year/year gain of 13.38%.
Index level 206.41.

The composite 6 index rose 1.20% month/month, for a year/year gain of 14.48%.
Index level 209.94. This index excludes Hamilton, Edmonton, Quebec, Winnipeg, Victoria.
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Sorry, IMHO these levels of appreciations are not sustainable. They look bubbly to me.
 
Guys, sorry for the mess here, I wasn't aware of it (someone should contact me sooner). Anyway, the thread has been cleaned up and jj90 is taking a permanent vacation from the conversation, and lylec305 is taking a temporary vacation of a few weeks off from this discussion.
 
JSOP said:
Just some economy lesson for you： When the economy of a nation is weak, the monetary policy to stimulate the economy is usually to keep or reduce the interest rate to very low level. The central bank of Canada, Bank of Canada is already doing that. While the Federal Reserve in USA has raised the interest rate twice already, Bank of Canada is yet to raise the interest rate from its lowest level in history. With the interest rate represented by what is called "Overnight Rate" at 0.25%, it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that the mortgage rate would all of sudden jump to 7- 8%. I can over mortgage all I want but I know for a fact that it won't increase to 7 - 8% LOL even if I lose (not loose - loose is something that is opposite of "tight". Some free English lesson for you) my job.

And some facts for you: The USD/CAD rate is currently at 1.37xx NOT 1.30 from TD, maybe when the Bank is trying to sell CAD to you for USD, but when you want to buy USD with CAD, it's 1.37XX or even higher. And it has NOTHING to do with Canadian being an importer. It has to do with Canada not being able to make money through oil, the most lucrative export that Canada has anymore thanks to Saudi breaking the OPEC quota suppressing the oil price AND our last PM not investing enough when we had the money in alternative energy and other ways to make money. If tomorrow the oil goes back up to rates in 2015, you will see the USD/CAD going back down to below 1 again.

Finally some advice to you: If you want to troll on ET, at least do SOME research about the economy, economic principle and investing beforehand otherwise you come across as very dumb, to put it bluntly. I won't be reading your posts anymore because I will be putting you on my "Ignore" list but others still will.

Good luck!
More...
You mean good luck to yourself if you think interest rates are going any lower. And you should ignore yourself while you're at it. Your economic textbook knowledge is missing reality. The global economy does not evolve around canada.
 
"Realtors’ internal numbers show Toronto home prices fell more than 6% in two weeks"
http://business.financialpost.com/p...to-home-prices-fell-more-than-6-in-two-weeks/

TREB reported Monday, in a note sent to members, that the average home sold for $808,847 from June 1 to 14 — a sharp drop from the average of $863,910 for May. The decline comes on top of a 6.2 per cent drop in prices from April to May. The board no longer makes public mid-month stats.

The peak of the market in Canada’s largest city now appears to be in April when the average price soared to $920,791,

http://www.trebhome.com/

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