Canadian housing bubble thread
- Thread starter m22au
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Sorry...meant AM...not PM. Thus, 0630am PST for the start of the trading day.
In Seattle, a good friend that makes 100k per year...lives in a nice custom RV although it has scared away a few girlfriends (living situation). Another close friend in Seattle lives on "house boat" just before housing markets started to rise dramatically...forcing many to look at these particular alternatives.
They've been doing such for about 8 years now.
I know you only have an hour to edit the post. LOL My favorite time zone is the Atlantic one that's 1& 1/2 hours ahead of the EST. You can sleep in and would still be on time for the market open for the NA market. The property is super cheap there so I might one day move there.
If you trade forex, the best time zone is the Asian time zone, you get to trade ALL three markets throughout the whole day. You get up to trade the Asian market during the day, European market in the afternoon and the NA market in the evening. And then when the NA market cools down at around 11:00 PM or so, you go to bed. Full 8 hours of sleep later, you rise up all fully rested and energized to make all the money you can in the market.
The west coast is pretty cool like that. This would never fly in Toronto.
I don't think Toronto would be a suitable place for "house boats" because of the winter and moving ice.
Here in Quebec, I've seen moving ice slowly crush things that you would think could not be crushed. My girlfriend lives on the waterfront in a condo. Its a scary noise to hear the moving ice late at night pushing up against something even from one block away.
Most situations I know when housing prices are too high as alternative living is "roommates" or "home sharing". I think that's a traditional option that most folks try prior to trying the other alternative living situations (RV, house boats, sleeping in cars and others). In fact, I recently read about a growing trend involving independent students (those living on their own) at U.S. universities living in their cars or homeless...a fast rising trend at America's universities. They aren't just dealing with rising housing prices involving rents...they are also dealing with rising costs of education.
The Huffington Post calls it a "National Tragedy".
I know a medical student that lives in her car for the past 2 years in Oregon...she showers at the homeless shelter she works at. She only works at that particular shelter for the free food and showering although walking to it at night is a little unsafe. Starting next year she'll be able to shower at the medical school.
There's a program nationwide in the U.S. that aids homeless students. President Trump plans to kill that program to save money.
Just think, without the program...there may be a day you see that dirty homeless person on the street is actually a college student or maybe a medical student or maybe an assistant professor that can't afford the high rental/house ownership costs or maybe that homeless person is your children's teacher.
Early last year while on vacation to see friend a in Seattle...I met one of her new friends that's a 7th grade teacher and homeless (living in a shelter)...cost of living too high for her.
Yeah, she's exploring elsewhere to live...like the Carolinas (east coast).
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Here is an interesting article to throw into this. Poloz actually suggestst that a 5% rate rise wouldn't do anything to tame housing speculation. And then there is this quote.. which made me fall off my chair.
“Speculation grows, and it’s fueled by actual money, not by credit -- so [speculative homebuying has] got very little to do with the cost of credit,” he said.
I really have no idea what anyone is saying anymore. They say its not foreign buying one day, they says its locals buying, now they say that speculation wouldn't suffer from a rate rise? If this is so, its because its all foreign money, in cash, not borrowed, and if its offshore money to blame, then why isn't it controlled so Canadians can actually buy a house? This is not going to end well, I just have no idea when or how it will start.
http://www.bnn.ca/poloz-even-a-5-rate-hike-wouldn-t-curb-toronto-housing-speculation-1.722730
“Speculation grows, and it’s fueled by actual money, not by credit -- so [speculative homebuying has] got very little to do with the cost of credit,” he said.
I really have no idea what anyone is saying anymore. They say its not foreign buying one day, they says its locals buying, now they say that speculation wouldn't suffer from a rate rise? If this is so, its because its all foreign money, in cash, not borrowed, and if its offshore money to blame, then why isn't it controlled so Canadians can actually buy a house? This is not going to end well, I just have no idea when or how it will start.
http://www.bnn.ca/poloz-even-a-5-rate-hike-wouldn-t-curb-toronto-housing-speculation-1.722730
What on earth do you think is going to happen ? This is not some mediocre center in the US, it's Canada's financial capital and an attractive destination to many immigrants with money. Anyone without the money can live in any number of other Canadian towns or small cities with much cheaper housing. Most home owners in Toronto are well capitalized and long term residents.
I witnessed the last housing correction in Toronto around roughly 1990. Barely changed life in Toronto, and it was a major correction with much higher interest rates in play.
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Lots can happen now. These properties are purchased when interests are at all time lows, and when debt levels are higher than they have ever been. Plus, people bought houses at roughly 4 times yearly income to house price ratio, and now these numbers are well into 8 or 9. Jobs of course are going to be the biggest factor here. Income have not really gained much for most people in the past 10 years, and I do believe many jobs will be gone. You might assume that its only the bottom people, but I've seen reports that even people who are pharmacists for example can be hit hard by technology, and they tend to do well.
There are just far too many ways for all of this to go wrong and only one way to go right. People have to keep buying at these levels, and how they will continue to keep buying at this level I don't know. People without houses are mad, and people with houses are scared. There will be no way for the government to make everyone happy of course, but I would bet that in 5-10 years, its not business as usual.
It's not relevant, because Canadian banks are conservative in nature in terms of granting loans, and any financial crisis in Canada at this point would be more about employment opportunities then Toronto housing. Many Toronto owners are well capitalized, retirees, or new immigrants with money. Young people tend to rent or purchase small condos, or are financed by their parents who are from the previous well capitalized group. Is life totally fair ? No.
There are tons of places you can live in Canada with affordable housing. What the government needs to do is ensure employment opportunities exist in those centers.