Canadian housing bubble thread

[wrbtrader]

Where is this place outside of Montreal? West Island? Laval? Blainville? One reason: Chinese or immigration settlements.

I never discuss the city I live in but its far (several hours) away from Montreal. There's no Chinese or immigration settlements. The reason why I mentioned the few Asian families was because they are the first Asian family that moved into the neighborhood although prior to that I've only seen one Asian child at my kids schools. Not uncommon for kids from other cities to attend the same school because its a top private school.

Anyways, the new families (Asian) in the neighborhood...nice folks...one stated they own a house in Toronto and another mentioned they own a home in Tokyo. I'm not sure were the other family is from but their English is excellent with a west coast accent (no Chinese accent). That makes me wonder if they're from the Bay area of the U.S. and maybe 2nd or 3rd generation from China. Thus, not born and raised in China but born and raised in the San Francisco area.

I myself grew up in the U.S. and I'm very familiar with geographical accents. I had a few friends in the military that grew up in the Bay area of San Francisco that I use to tease along with making fun of the accents of my buddies from the Boston area.

By the way, I've never heard of any immigration settlements. Only few times I heard that phrase was at a Museum when they were talking about the history of Canada late 1800's, early 1900's or a few hundred years earlier when the French arrived.

How old are you ?

P.S. I'm not born and raised in Canada. I came here for the Ski season and then relocated here for a woman (Quebecor)...she has a nice ass and body...I decided to start a family with her considering I can trade from anywhere. Thus, relocating was not an issue although I prefer the pacific coast time zone.

 

[jj90]

As much as @JSOP cries about the Chinese buying up supply in a free market, mostly this is indeed fueled by the Mainlanders. The second the Chinese govt figures a way to stabilize the yuan and reverse capital outflows, Vancouver and Toronto bids disappear. That or a recession in China.

Few things to note: Canada IS the major cities. Nobody wants to buy in buttfuck nowhere Manitoba.

The housing market doesn't have the scale or has the development of the US housing market. No '08 repeat, it's localized in Canada.

Real estate is TBTF, govt will bailout everyone.

@wrbtrader Brother you are made of something else. PST time is shit for NA trading.

 

[Gotcha]

I think this whole foreign buyer thing goes like this. So Canada is obviously a country that likes to act all prim and proper. If things were fair, I should be able to go and buy property in China, but the rules state I can't, but its ok if they can come and buy property here. That's one point.

I think that for years, Canada assumed that letting in rich foreigners would boost the country. Canada did after all have a way for rich people to skip the lineup to get into the country sooner, by way of an investor Visa program. All this meant was that they had to give the government interest free money that was returned 5 years later (or something like this). Canada views anyone rich coming over and buying property as investing in the country. I'm not exactly sure how this is when they buy a house they see once a year, but ok.

The thing I think is that this completely snowballed out of control. I don't think they realized how many would actually start buying up all the property. Since its the government that doesn't move quickly, it got out of hand. Now of course they are fucked and backed into a corner. They can't let the air out of the bubble, and any move to control prices will hurt the locals. Any fix done by the authorities will hurt everyone who just bought, and not doing anything will of course cause more anger.

If prices stay exactly where they are, an entire generation of people will never own, which is a huge detriment to how much assistance you will need in your retirement years, so this will be a huge problem for the government.

My feeling is that even if nothing is done, even if interest rates stay the same, the onslaught of automation and jobs cuts over the next 5-10 years will pop this bubble for sure. There simply won't be the money to pay for these mortgages that people took on. You don't need everyone to suffer, but if just 5% of the population is forced to sell, it will cause a landslide. Remember, these figures of 30% house price rises YoY are based on what, sales of 3k-4k houses? If supply only doubles, that will crash prices like crazy, so you literally need only several thousand people to lose their job any given month and list their house to cause a chain reaction.

 

[_eug_]

There is another side to this problem which is lack of affordable rentals for people in the big cities. Incomes stay flat but rental costs and property values keep going up. There is also an influx of 300,000 new immigrants every year and most move to Toronto. With properties going on Airbnb and all the vacant houses / condo's that are owned by foreigners and speculators there is very big demand for the current rental supply.

A recent study found 25,000 vacant properties in Vancouver, which has a population of 600,000.

I think there will be a movement for young people to get out of the cities and go live elsewhere around the country or even internationally if you can land an internet job. It just doesn't make financial sense to live in the big city. Unless you are very frugal and significantly lower your standard of living, you will be living pay cheque to pay chueque or worst.

With all the income going to rent or mortgages, there will be less money to spend on going out to local business. Its just not looking good.

On the other hand a crash would destroy our baby boomers since most have little savings and just have the house as the retirement plan.

Me personally, I lived in Toronto and in Vancouver and now I am in a smaller town in BC where quality of life is fantastic and rent is reasonable.

 

[Gotcha]

There is another side to this problem which is lack of affordable rentals for people in the big cities. Incomes stay flat but rental costs and property values keep going up. There is also an influx of 300,000 new immigrants every year and most move to Toronto. With properties going on Airbnb and all the vacant houses / condo's that are owned by foreigners and speculators there is very big demand for the current rental supply.

A recent study found 25,000 vacant properties in Vancouver, which has a population of 600,000.

I think there will be a movement for young people to get out of the cities and go live elsewhere around the country or even internationally if you can land an internet job. It just doesn't make financial sense to live in the big city. Unless you are very frugal and significantly lower your standard of living, you will be living pay cheque to pay chueque or worst.

With all the income going to rent or mortgages, there will be less money to spend on going out to local business. Its just not looking good.

On the one hand a crash would destroy our baby boomers since most have little savings and just have the house as the retirement plan.

Me personally, I lived in Toronto and in Vancouver and now I am in a smaller town in BC where quality of life is fantastic and rent is reasonable.

I agree, but the only trouble with this is that most jobs are in the cities. If anything, I think more and more people see that in order to have quality of life, they don't want to be commuting all day, and hence are staying in small condos and raising families since they don't want to do the 90 minute commute. (of course they also can't afford houses either so have to stay in condos for this reason as well)

I have always wondered if an autonomous car will solve this. Imagine getting to just sit in your car and relax, or eat your breakfast, or even finish your sleep, all while the car does all the work. Then maybe you don't have to live too close.

I do truly think the government has to make a decision about what housing really means. If they allow speculation and running it like a business, then sure, let some rich dude own 10, let anyone run their own AirBnB, let foreigners park their money, etc. But if housing is to be thought of more as a necessity, like food and water, (shelter is after all an essential), then it better get into the frame of mind of protecting this vital asset and coming down hard on the factors that make it unaffordable.

Like you say, when all your paycheck is spent on housing, you have nothing left for anything else, and that completely stagnates the economy. Nobody has any money, just like China 30 years ago. Without anyone having money, your country is dead.

 

[m22au]

Let us not forget another partner in this crime

RLB estimates that there were more cranes in use for apartment construction in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane (454) than there were in New York, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Toronto and Calgary combined (419).

Go Australia!

View attachment 172683
Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...-of-north-america-2016-10#bj0m0Puv7yuXKhLC.99

Construction is going crazy over here, Building approvals are surging in March, to 5 year highs, truly insane (the ref article is from Oct 2016)

Australian housing bubble thread (started somewhat prematurely in 2010):
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/australian-housing-bubble-thread.199582/

 

[_eug_]

There are also some interesting alternatives to traditional housing situations that people are exploring in the lower mainland (Vancouver). Lots of people are living in smaller RV's, Campers, and Sailboats. It's really interesting to watch the societal effects of this housing bubble.

 

[wrbtrader]

As much as @JSOP cries about the Chinese buying up supply in a free market, mostly this is indeed fueled by the Mainlanders. The second the Chinese govt figures a way to stabilize the yuan and reverse capital outflows, Vancouver and Toronto bids disappear. That or a recession in China.

Few things to note: Canada IS the major cities. Nobody wants to buy in buttfuck nowhere Manitoba.

The housing market doesn't have the scale or has the development of the US housing market. No '08 repeat, it's localized in Canada.

Real estate is TBTF, govt will bailout everyone.

@wrbtrader Brother you are made of something else. PST time is shit for NA trading.

Enjoying the discussion here especially about the Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets.

By the way, the reason why I prefer the PST time zone is because I'm an early riser and would rather begin my trading day @ 0630pm PST when the markets open instead of 0930pm EST here in Quebec.

Also, I like the ideal of the trading day being done @ 1330pm PST...good feeling to have when out and about before the 4pm crowd shows up.

P.S. I lived in Seattle for about 11 years (relocated there with several other traders from Chicago) prior to living in Quebec. Yet, born and raised (most of my youth) in France...own properties in all three countries.

 

[JSOP]

Let us not forget another partner in this crime

RLB estimates that there were more cranes in use for apartment construction in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane (454) than there were in New York, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Toronto and Calgary combined (419).

Go Australia!

View attachment 172683
Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...-of-north-america-2016-10#bj0m0Puv7yuXKhLC.99

Construction is going crazy over here, Building approvals are surging in March, to 5 year highs, truly insane (the ref article is from Oct 2016)

yeah cuz Australia has the "good fortune" of locating right below China and happens to be also a westernized democracy country similar to Canada and with warmer weather, LOT warmer. With global warming, one day Canada will be Australia but for now, it's still Canada.

 

[JSOP]

Enjoying the discussion here especially about the Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets.

By the way, the reason why I prefer the PST time zone is because I'm an early riser and would rather begin my trading day @ 0630pm PST when the markets open instead of 0930pm EST here in Quebec.

Also, I like the ideal of the trading day being done @ 1330pm PST...good feeling to have when out and about before the 4pm crowd shows up.

P.S. I lived in Seattle for about 11 years (relocated there with several other traders from Chicago) prior to living in Quebec. Yet, born and raised (most of my youth) in France...own properties in all three countries.

Oh you can be done with your day earlier and go to bed at 6:30 PM? I am a night-owl and I don't start trading until after 11:00 AM EST. Well to each its own. LOL