Canada's Housing Bubble Explodes As Its Biggest Mortgage Lender Crashes Most In History

[tsznecki]

So you actually believe that the owner of said unit is gone for the summer so he can rent it out for sky high prices but returns in the winter to fulfill his 180 residency requirement? Ha!

I don't believe, I know for a fact. Winter rates are 50%-60% of summer rates. Everyone who has a unit does this. But hey feel free to keep telling us how its done when you have zero idea of what you are talking about.

If you followed my line of reasoning, you would see that I was saying that renting an entire apartment was illigeal, not that Airbnb as a whole was illegal. I did now learn that there is this 180 day rule, but I will bet that hardly anyone does this legally.

Oh I see. Now you backtrack again and say renting an entire apartment is illegal. Why are you flip flopping so much? Are you literally trying to show us how to fuck yourself?

I've already caught you below in your own post where you quote the article that it is not illegal to rent an entire unit.

h
https://vancouversun.com/news/local...ome-on-airbnb-heres-how-to-do-it-in-vancouver

From the second article:

"Am I eligible to rent out my home short-term?
In order to be eligible to rent out your home for short-term guests, you must live in the home yourself for most of the year and it must be a legal suite that meets all building and safety requirements."

Now lets get to the crux of this issue..

To recap, most of what I said was legit. You admit that the guy running 5 unit would have a problem with 4 of them. And you also hopefully see that the owner would have to occupy his unit for half a year, and I bet we both know this is most likely not the case, so in this fashion, this unit is probably an illegal listing as well. Like I say, most people leave during the ugly months and come back during the nice months. To do this in reverse would be highly rare.

All of this combined leads a rational person to see that renting an entire apartment with these strict conditions is not something too plausible, and most of the guys who were doing this before these new rules, (aka. running a hotel with their condos), can no longer do this. You keep saying enforcement is lax, and this I agree with, but this means you agree its not legal. I would hope for the citizens of Vancouver they continue to fight this, and that Airbnb is given some sort of penalty for allowing listings without permits when it clearly agreed to this earlier.

Your position on this is that it is illegal. I've shown that not only is this legal with a single unit, but the ones who are running multiple units have minimal penalties for doing such.

So here we come to the crux of it: Why do you care so much whether or not it is legal? Butthurt rentee? Failed trader with too much time? Retiree with no money to be a snowbird?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I don't believe, I know for a fact. Winter rates are 50%-60% of summer rates.

I noticed rates much closer to 75% of summer rates for winter-time pricing. Where exactly are you finding the lower percentages?

 

[Nine_Ender]

View attachment 201610

A note on this. Higher end homes ( mostly detached homes ) are a fairly tight market that moves far more then the rest of the market in either direction. The actual price changes in most segments are smoothed out considerably,and sometimes even act against the "average", For example, condos were up in price in 2018 despite the overall market being down ( one source said 4% ). This is because detached homes got expensive and many people looked for more affordable options.

In any event, forecasting real estate isn't a science. All one can do is look at the fundamentals and they are strong in Toronto. What this means to me is either the trend will continue ( likely at a slower pace then the last 7 years ) or it will go basically flat like the 1990s ( with some corrective years certainly possible but no long term impact ). I heard a local real estate analyst ( not a seller an investment advisor ) say commercial real estate in Toronto is very healthy right now and the supply of residential property and homes is basically zero. Projected population growth is steady up trend until year 2050 every study I've seen. So take those facts for what they are and make your guess. Hardly matters to me it's all gravy, I like my place, it's paid off, it's a great location, and the rental market is extremely hot ( a back stop for all residential real estate in this city ). The college walking distance from me is expanding as loads of Asian students are now attending.

Local knowledge matters. But believe what you want, just don't be surprised if a thread on this in 2019 is as thoroughly wrong as the same ideas posted on this in 2010 and 2011. Some American hedge funds have a brutally bad track record trying to forecast our market.

 

[Nine_Ender]

i lived thru 3 Canadian and 1 US real estate corrections. Takes about 10 years to recover, longer in some areas. Without chinese money, TO and Vancouver will drop more than 50%. Nothing goes straight up, denial doesn't work.

If there is no meaningful crash in Toronto real estate within 10 years, you can get on here and apologize for being wrong ( apologize because of your overly aggressive tone on this not for being wrong ). No excuses or "denial". It is what it is, the market reflects all aspects including new foreign buyers and the piss poor efforts of government to improve supply.

If real estate drops 30% ( I don't need 50% ) and holds that level for at least two years, I'll admit I was wrong on my forecast that a crash isn't going to occur the next 10 years. This is a trading site not a bs site; actual numbers are all that matters not what people think emotionally. In 2010 and 2011, I addressed this same topic and what I said at that time has held up 9 years later. The idea was presented aggressively by several other posters that shorting Canadian banks was a strong trading strategy and that residential home prices at that time were in a "bubble". Neither was a good idea at the time.

 

[viruscore1]

If there is no meaningful crash in Toronto real estate within 10 years, you can get on here and apologize for being wrong ( apologize because of your overly aggressive tone on this not for being wrong ). No excuses or "denial". It is what it is, the market reflects all aspects including new foreign buyers and the piss poor efforts of government to improve supply.

If real estate drops 30% ( I don't need 50% ) and holds that level for at least two years, I'll admit I was wrong on my forecast that a crash isn't going to occur the next 10 years. This is a trading site not a bs site; actual numbers are all that matters not what people think emotionally. In 2010 and 2011, I addressed this same topic and what I said at that time has held up 9 years later. The idea was presented aggressively by several other posters that shorting Canadian banks was a strong trading strategy and that residential home prices at that time were in a "bubble". Neither was a good idea at the time.

Just wait it'll happen. Interest rates will go back to normal around 10% the chinese will be given an incentive to leave Canada. Here's your apology. Sorry, you're in the back of the soup line lol. Are you that naive, you really think it goes straight up...

 

[tsznecki]

I noticed rates much closer to 75% of summer rates for winter-time pricing. Where exactly are you finding the lower percentages?

We keep a database over the years and use airdna.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Just wait it'll happen. Interest rates will go back to normal around 10% the chinese will be given an incentive to leave Canada. Here's your apology. Sorry, you're in the back of the soup line lol. Are you that naive, you really think it goes straight up...

Interest rates aren't going back to what you think is normal for years and many Asians have no interest in leaving Canada they like it here. GTA population is growing every year despite Canada having immigration quotas. I don't know what you think is "straight up" but nothing about Toronto real estate has been "straight up" since 1989. In fact, recent years are a fraction of what the market did from 1986-1989 if you look at the charts.

When you get overly arrogant about these things you just look stupid, a man unwilling to consider all possibilities and do any real research on his ideas.

 

[viruscore1]

Interest rates aren't going back to what you think is normal for years and many Asians have no interest in leaving Canada they like it here. GTA population is growing every year despite Canada having immigration quotas. I don't know what you think is "straight up" but nothing about Toronto real estate has been "straight up" since 1989. In fact, recent years are a fraction of what the market did from 1986-1989 if you look at the charts.

When you get overly arrogant about these things you just look stupid, a man unwilling to consider all possibilities and do any real research on his ideas.

Wow you're really in denial. The bubble will burst...

 

[Nine_Ender]

Wow you're really in denial. The bubble will burst...

Talk is cheap. Nobody really cares what you think least of all the actual real estate market. Let's see what actually occurs within 10 years instead of your delusional fantasies of being able to forecast it ahead of time.

 

[viruscore1]

Talk is cheap. Nobody really cares what you think least of all the actual real estate market. Let's see what actually occurs within 10 years instead of your delusional fantasies of being able to forecast it ahead of time.

You seem to be in over your head with Canadian property. Your debt to income ratio must be so high one point mortgage rate increase will bankrupt you. Take a deep breath and put your head back in the sand, carry on. I took all my money out of canadian property and banks last year...