Canada's Housing Bubble Explodes As Its Biggest Mortgage Lender Crashes Most In History

tsznecki · Apr 27, 2019

Seaweed said:
This is a very interesting point and may very well explain the continued appreciation in values. But it only takes one law from the city to turn the tide. Just like in Vancouver where the city made AirBnB illegal, Toronto could do the same. In fact, it should do the same. When your local citizens who work in the city don't have a place to live, its a problem that politicians will need to solve.

I'm personally not comfortable with this whole AirBnB model and how it skirts the rules established for the hotel industry. Are these AirBnB hosts paying the hotel tax? Are they even paying their taxes to begin with? Once you equalize all this, maybe running your AirBnB isn't as lucrative, and worse, it might be illegal one day.

Where do you get your facts? Or do you make it up?

https://vancouver.ca/doing-business/short-term-rentals.aspx

Nine_Ender · Apr 27, 2019

Seaweed said:
So although the fundamentals don't support these prices, everyone will need somewhere to live, and officials will try every trick in the book to support people being able to live somewhere.

In fact, the fundamentals DO support these prices. It's a wealthy city for a variety of reasons. Those who can't afford it have to either move out or cut corners by commuting long distances, sharing with others, or settling for smaller places. It'll be many years before more affordable places get built if they ever are.

Mark my words, in 20 years people will still be bitching that Toronto is super expensive, that it's a real estate bubble ( it's not now nor do I think it ever gets to that ), that the grass is greener where they are in "wonderful" places like Tampa Bay and Fort Lauderdale. Fact is many people are employed here, like the schools here, like the relative safety of this city compared to many US cities, and like the established communities of a variety of ethnic backgrounds.

Those insisting a 50% crash or more is coming are talking through their ass it'll never happen.
Just ask the last group who posted the same shit in 2010/2011 at much lower prices. Imagine somebody renting here for 9 years because they were told endlessly by irresponsible people that a real estate crash was just around the corner. How many more years will people post this shit until they admit they misread the market ?

destriero · Apr 27, 2019

Nine_Ender said:
In fact, the fundamentals DO support these prices. It's a wealthy city for a variety of reasons. Those who can't afford it have to either move out or cut corners by commuting long distances, sharing with others, or settling for smaller places. It'll be many years before more affordable places get built if they ever are.

Mark my words, in 20 years people will still be bitching that Toronto is super expensive, that it's a real estate bubble ( it's not now nor do I think it ever gets to that ), that the grass is greener where they are in "wonderful" places like Tampa Bay and Fort Lauderdale. Fact is many people are employed here, like the schools here, like the relative safety of this city compared to many US cities, and like the established communities of a variety of ethnic backgrounds.

Those insisting a 50% crash or more is coming are talking through their ass it'll never happen.
Just ask the last group who posted the same shit in 2010/2011 at much lower prices. Imagine somebody renting here for 9 years because they were told endlessly by irresponsible people that a real estate crash was just around the corner. How many more years will people post this shit until they admit they misread the market ?

1989 didn't happen? It took *20 years* for Toronto housing prices to eclipse the 1989 peak.

Seaweed · Apr 27, 2019

tsznecki said:
Where do you get your facts? Or do you make it up?

https://vancouver.ca/doing-business/short-term-rentals.aspx

Excellent link and I do love getting down to the facts.

The first paragraph is rather vague since it says "A short-term rental can be an entire home, or a room within that home, that is rented for less than 30 consecutive days at a time."

But the second paragraph is the correct one. "A short-term rental can only be operated from your principal residence – the home where you live, as an owner or tenant, and use for bills, identification, taxes, and insurance."

In a way, there is a total disagreement between these two sentences because what people want to rent is the entire home/condo. The first sentence makes it seem like its possible, but the second sentence makes it clear that you can only rent a room in your home. The idea behind AirBnB might have initially been to rent a couch or room, but these days, people want to rent the entire condo. You want privacy on your vacation. This is what the city of Vancouver has put a stop to. You simply cannot list entire condos for rent if this will be less than 30 days. You can only rent a room in your condo. Vancouver clearly did this because some people can't even afford their condo so they need some help with the rent.

Furthermore, many buildings have strata's that have also banned this type of renting. I imagine that if your neighbors see too many people coming and going with suit cases, they will alert the strata and the owner will get some letters.

viruscore1 · Apr 27, 2019

Seaweed said:
I highly doubt interest rates will go much higher from here. They simply can't or else the entire system will crash, especially for the highly indebted Canadians.

On the flip side, the high rate of immigration keeps stuffing more and more people into cities like Toronto and Vancouver. So although the fundamentals don't support these prices, everyone will need somewhere to live, and officials will try every trick in the book to support people being able to live somewhere.

Its too easy to say that prices will drop 50%. Before that happens, everything else will have to be tried first. I can't even imagine what all of this is, but I doubt it will be as easy as a fire sale pricing.

It happened before ...

Stockolio · Apr 27, 2019

destriero said:
1989 didn't happen? It took *20 years* for Toronto housing prices to eclipse the 1989 peak.

Haha you're in space, Toronto RE will see a correction, but Toronto's economy, money laundering and foreign inflow of cash will always make sure it's expensive as fuck... Toronto is the financial hub of Canada, by far. The 95 Quebec Referendum cemented Toronto as the powerhouse of Canada, major corporations from Montreal all bounced to Toronto around that time, and they never looked back since. Montreal and Toronto are fine, East Coast isn't hurting in RE, West Coast is getting drilled and not even close to the bottom imo

viruscore1 · Apr 27, 2019

Stockolio said:
Haha you're in space, Toronto RE will see a correction, but Toronto's economy, money laundering and foreign inflow of cash will always make sure it's expensive as fuck... Toronto is the financial hub of Canada, by far. The 95 Quebec Referendum cemented Toronto as the powerhouse of Canada, major corporations from Montreal all bounced to Toronto around that time, and they never looked back since. Montreal and Toronto are fine, East Coast isn't hurting in RE, West Coast is getting drilled and not even close to the bottom imo

The foreign investor RE tax will slow things down. The china crack down will cause havoc ...

tsznecki · Apr 28, 2019

Seaweed said:
Excellent link and I do love getting down to the facts.

The first paragraph is rather vague since it says "A short-term rental can be an entire home, or a room within that home, that is rented for less than 30 consecutive days at a time."

But the second paragraph is the correct one. "A short-term rental can only be operated from your principal residence – the home where you live, as an owner or tenant, and use for bills, identification, taxes, and insurance."

In a way, there is a total disagreement between these two sentences because what people want to rent is the entire home/condo. The first sentence makes it seem like its possible, but the second sentence makes it clear that you can only rent a room in your home. The idea behind AirBnB might have initially been to rent a couch or room, but these days, people want to rent the entire condo. You want privacy on your vacation. This is what the city of Vancouver has put a stop to. You simply cannot list entire condos for rent if this will be less than 30 days. You can only rent a room in your condo. Vancouver clearly did this because some people can't even afford their condo so they need some help with the rent.

Furthermore, many buildings have strata's that have also banned this type of renting. I imagine that if your neighbors see too many people coming and going with suit cases, they will alert the strata and the owner will get some letters.

You have very specific reading comprehension. Nowhere in the second paragraph does it say or imply one only can rent a room in a home/primary residence.

Doesn't matter anyways because in all practicality supply of condos listing on Airbnb remains high in the city. You are saying something that doesn't happen in real life.

People who can't afford their condo get roommates, your statement has absolutely zero to do with Airbnb.

Seaweed · Apr 28, 2019

tsznecki said:
You have very specific reading comprehension. Nowhere in the second paragraph does it say or imply one only can rent a room in a home/primary residence.

Doesn't matter anyways because in all practicality supply of condos listing on Airbnb remains high in the city. You are saying something that doesn't happen in real life.

People who can't afford their condo get roommates, your statement has absolutely zero to do with Airbnb.

https://theprovince.com/news/local-...tors/wcm/7d349ff7-4ec6-4b39-bfe3-d4a54c566820

https://vancouversun.com/news/local...ome-on-airbnb-heres-how-to-do-it-in-vancouver

From the second article:

"Am I eligible to rent out my home short-term?
In order to be eligible to rent out your home for short-term guests, you must live in the home yourself for most of the year and it must be a legal suite that meets all building and safety requirements."

You have an understanding deficit. But do you get it now? When people go away, they want to stay somewhere private. If you only rent a room in a 2 bedroom condo, that isn't exactly private now, is it? Entire condos were being rented out for a nightly rate versus left for a long term tenant, and this is what the city wanted to stop.

Now when I go to AirBnB, I do still see some listed, but shit loads less than before. Those listed do not have their license posted in the ad, which is what you're supposed to do, so I figure there will hopefully be some sort of enforcement on these units.

viruscore1 · Apr 28, 2019

The BIG Short Canada, airbnb will pay your over inflated property hahaha. Everyone in Vancouver and Toronto will become hotel/motel operators.

.