if you watch any instrument for 2 days you can get a feel for how it moves,oil has a .75 intra day trading range, 59.75 to 60.50 then 60.25 to 61,something like that ,when you put any trade on even with all your reasons,you watch it and soon have a good or bad feeling about your position,you intuitively can feel momemtum,just like in a sporting event you can see one team pick up momemtum and come from behind or one team lead and never trail,same with the bulls and bears ,2 teams battling it out,trouble is you listen to all the outside static,fear ,greed ,cnbc analysts and it dillutes your feel