Quote from apex82:
Weak longs washed out on the move down that made new lows, all amateur traders went aggressive short with stops above the most recent highs. Bigs rode it up stopped out the shorts and sold into the breakout longs. All is left now is sell stops below the market and no buying demand except for some aggressive scalpers. At this point way more supply then demand. Hence the market makes a quick bounce and a sharp move down or the bigs just keep selling into the pullback without waiting for a small bounce wanting to buy back at lower prices. I would like to see if there was some volume spikes at the highs, as this would make it a higher probability.
The more I look at it, it is almost a blind guess at this point. Say if the market is trending up and this the first good pullback I would definately say we have another move higher before retesting the lows. However, if the higher timeframes have been selling off and the previous data is just a bull move in a bear run then I would definately expect a retest of the lows from this point.