Can you beat the S&P500 index in the long run?

Buy and hold is a long term trend following strategy with no risk control.

If you can't beat the S&P index you probably shouldn't be trading.
 
What you call "painful", we call it "risk".
You can't make big money without risk.

Also, when you see both gold and QQQ dive, it would be the best opportunity to buy.

The reasoning is gold dive because it see interest is raising in the near future. While interest rise because it see significant economy growth in the near future.
QQQ dive because short term valuation compared with interest rate. Yet significant economy growth means QQQ will rise significantly in the near future.
 
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wmwmw said:
What you call "painful", we call it "risk".
You can't make big money without risk.

Also, when you see both gold and QQQ dive, it would be the best opportunity to buy.

The reasoning is gold dive because it see interest is raising in the near future. While interest raise because it see significant economy growth in the near future.
QQQ dive because short term valuation compared with interest rate. Yet significant economy growth means QQQ will rise significantly in the near future.
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If you really believe that buy TQQQ.
 
deaddog said:
Buy and hold is a long term trend following strategy with no risk control.

If you can't beat the S&P index you probably shouldn't be trading.
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I'm not sure I agree, if my portfolio is large and I have a low vol strategy, that generates an income.
At the end of the day you take the $ not the %
 
Trade Prophet said:
I'm not sure I agree, if my portfolio is large and I have a low vol strategy, that generates an income.
At the end of the day you take the $ not the %
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Then you are only fooling yourself. You measure performance against a benchmark in percentage. Sure you can say your portfolio earned $100 but unless you know the size of the portfolio it means nothing.
 
Trade Prophet said:
At the end of the day you take the $ not the %
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That sounds stupid, as some excuse, for underperforming.
(Nothing personal)

Back to original post, - beating an index is easy.
(Index is full of garbage)

Beating yourself with discipline - that's the hard part.

First the right character (as foundation), then habbits and skills on it. Yet most folk who end up in the game have degenerate gambler mindsets/personalities.
 
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wmwmw said:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/tqqq-vs-qqq-22-years-simulation.356593/

I have a strategy that holds 50% in gold and 50% in TQQQ.
So in a bear market gold would go up big.
And the rule is when TQQQ drop 90%, move the profit in gold into TQQQ.

I research gold ETF and could not find any gold ETF that was earlier than Nov, 2004.
So I would just start the strategy from Nov,2004.
Since 2000 bear market was a rare event and is not likely to happen again in the future, while 2008 bear market was more like a typical bear market.

So GLD starts in Nov,2004 at 45, while TQQQ at about 400.
In early 2008, TQQQ drop to 40( the lowest was about 16) while GOLD was 90.
If I move GLD profit into TQQQ, today I would make 159 times profit.
If I move all GLD into TQQQ, I would make 318 times profit.
If 2008 bear market did not happen and TQQQ never drop below 40, I would make 20 times profit.
If I did not hold any gold, but all TQQQ, I would make 31 times profit.
For the same period, QQQ made 10 times profit.
SPX made 340% profit.

In case a 2000 bear market happens, gold would go much higher, and TQQQ would go much lower, so TQQQ+GOLD strategy would make much more profit than 158 times.

All these scenario beat simply holding SPX or QQQ.
The conclusion show that holding TQQQ + GOLD significantly outpreform holding SPX or QQQ.
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You can easily find daily data for the price of gold going back to ~1980. Also not difficult to simulate TQQQ back to 1985. Re-run your backtest starting in 1985.

Also, to be conservative, shouldn't you assume that the 2000 bear market WILL happen again, and perhaps even to a much worse extent?
 
shatteredx said:
You can easily find daily data for the price of gold going back to ~1980. Also not difficult to simulate TQQQ back to 1985. Re-run your backtest starting in 1985.

Also, to be conservative, shouldn't you assume that the 2000 bear market WILL happen again, and perhaps even to a much worse extent?
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I don't know how to find historical gold daily data, can you share a link?
Nor I know how to simulate TQQQ, The OP of that thread did that.

For my GOLD + TQQQ strategy, the more severe the bear market, the bigger the profit.
Because gold will go up more, and TQQQ will go down more. That will allow my strategy to load much more TQQQ.
 
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