Can you beat someone who religiously buy and hold bitcoin from inception with trading?

[Overnight]

If you say so. I personally can't stomach the huge swings. Especially with something I don't understand.

I don't know how to value a currency (isn't that what bitcoin is supposed to be) that can swing 10% in value in a few hours.

I'm not comfortable with a digital currency that moves anonymously. I someone steals my coin, who do I go to? (I see some teenage hacker supposedly stole 46 million). He was caught and charged but I don't know what happened to the 46 million.

Supply and demand drive the market. I have a problem wrapping my head around what is driving demand. There is no doubt that there is a demand but what happens when it dries up.

BTC has been correlating with growth stocks lately, for reasons I cannot fathom. But I've been watching swings for quite a while, and the current BTC avg price of 50K seems a great position to long. It is like CL in the low 70s. Mid-range between panic and demand.

But trust me when I tell you, the wall of worry is Dec 15th. That is the line in the sand. Well, and Dec 10th too. That may be even more important, the latest CPI number, because that may help drive the Fed message.

 

[HolyGrailSeeker]

If you say so. I personally can't stomach the huge swings. Especially with something I don't understand.

I don't know how to value a currency (isn't that what bitcoin is supposed to be) that can swing 10% in value in a few hours.

I'm not comfortable with a digital currency that moves anonymously. I someone steals my coin, who do I go to? (I see some teenage hacker supposedly stole 46 million). He was caught and charged but I don't know what happened to the 46 million.

Supply and demand drive the market. I have a problem wrapping my head around what is driving demand. There is no doubt that there is a demand but what happens when it dries up.

Then it is not for you. Something that goes 10,000% increase definitely has the potential to crash 80-90% too. If you want bigger upswings you have to deal with bigger drawdowns too. There is no two ways about it.

By the way your coins can't be stolen if you keep in in a ledger. It only be stolen if you gave out your seed phrase.

 

[deaddog]

Then it is not for you. Something that goes 10,000% increase definitely has the potential to crash 80-90% too. If you want bigger upswings you have to deal with bigger drawdowns too. There is no two ways about it.

That doesn't seem to be something one would want to buy and hold. it's also the reason it doesn't make sense as a currency. If you make a transaction worth a hundred dollars and a month from now you have no idea what the value of your coin will be.

By the way your coins can't be stolen if you keep in in a ledger. It only be stolen if you gave out your seed phrase.

I take it a ledger is some kind of hardware that couldn't possibly be stolen, lost or destroyed.

 

[HolyGrailSeeker]

That doesn't seem to be something one would want to buy and hold. it's also the reason it doesn't make sense as a currency. If you make a transaction worth a hundred dollars and a month from now you have no idea what the value of your coin will be.

I take it a ledger is some kind of hardware that couldn't possibly be stolen, lost or destroyed.

You can call it divine intervention, but I believe I was lead to holding certain cryptos. Things happened that gave me clues and convinced me to hold for long term so I do not really care what the short term swings are. While the prices of cryptos right now seem insanely high, it will get even higher for years to come. 5-10 years from now, people will look back and say, I wished I got into X and Y crypto at that time , I would have made life changing money.

Ledger is like a USB stick to access your cryptos, alternatively you can use paper wallet. Your cryptos are stored in the decentralized blockchain network so it cannot be stolen, you need a private key/seed phrase to access it.

 

[blink18]

You can call it divine intervention, but I believe I was lead to holding certain cryptos. Things happened that gave me clues and convinced me to hold for long term so I do not really care what the short term swings are. While the prices of cryptos right now seem insanely high, it will get even higher for years to come. 5-10 years from now, people will look back and say, I wished I got into X and Y crypto at that time , I would have made life changing money.

Ledger is like a USB stick to access your cryptos, alternatively you can use paper wallet. Your cryptos are stored in the decentralized blockchain network so it cannot be stolen, you need a private key/seed phrase to access it.

What percentage of your portfolio is in BTC? Do you also rebalance from time to time to have the same percentage exposure?

 

[HolyGrailSeeker]

What percentage of your portfolio is in BTC? Do you also rebalance from time to time to have the same percentage exposure?

To be honest, I don't hold any Bitcoin. I feel it will be good for a few more years but I think its the Myspace/Yahoo of crypto. I hold Ethereum and some other alts.

As for rebalancing, once you have a crypto that gets big. For e.g, if you got into ETH when its cheap, now would be a good time to take a small portion of it and place it in other smaller promising alts.

 

[deaddog]

Ledger is like a USB stick to access your cryptos, alternatively you can use paper wallet. Your cryptos are stored in the decentralized blockchain network so it cannot be stolen, you need a private key/seed phrase to access it.

So what happens if your ledger is lost, stolen, or damaged?
What if you forget your seed phrase or some on finds where you wrote it down.
If and it's a big if someone were to compromise the ledger, who do you report it to?
I've had a phishing scam where the person wanted me to pay in bitcoin that supposedly can't be traced back to them. How do you protect yourself?

 

[johnarb]

So what happens if your ledger is lost, stolen, or damaged?
What if you forget your seed phrase or some on finds where you wrote it down.
If and it's a big if someone were to compromise the ledger, who do you report it to?
I've had a phishing scam where the person wanted me to pay in bitcoin that supposedly can't be traced back to them. How do you protect yourself?

Bitcoin is a bearer asset in the sense that if you are the only one that owns the private key corresponding to a bitcoin address that contains an amount of bitcoin, then only you have the ability to transfer those bitcoin to another address

Hardware wallet, seed phrase, local wallets, etc, are all tools to manage the private keys. They are not required. You can generate a private key by tossing a coin 256 times

So, in essence, your question really boils down to if you lose your private key(s) that contain the bitcoin, or if you are tricked into giving access to it to an adversary, then your bitcoins will be lost

If you lose the private keys through destruction of the private keys, that's good for everyone that owns bitcoins as those are gone forever, see the story in the UK of a person that threw away a hard drive containing 7500 bitcoins

If it's the latter, then the adversary is a little bit richer in bitcoin at your loss

Bitcoins are on the blockchain. You do not have bitcoins on your wallets or on any wallets. What's in wallets are private keys

Bitcoin is decentralized. You are the bank if you take custody of the private keys that control the bitcoin you own

If you cannot handle the responsibility, purchase bitcoin from Fidelity, Coinbase, Kraken or any centralized entity and let them manage the bitcoins for you

If you noticed that I have 3 bitcoins at Coinbase, something happens to me, my wife has the password, ready to sell all the cryptos on Coinbase and transfer the $ to our join bank acct linked to the Coinbase account

You can do something similar, but I don't think you believe in Bitcoin as an asset. That subject would require a ton of research that is only possible if you dyor

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=944596.0

 

[deaddog]

You can do something similar, but I don't think you believe in Bitcoin as an asset. That subject would require a ton of research that is only possible if you dyor

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=944596.0

Thanks John. That's close to what I thought.

It's not like having your credit card compromised. Charges can't be reversed. It can't be replaced if lost. If a hacker manages to get access, you're hooped.

It seems to me it's more a commodity than a currency. Supply and demand determine the price. Definitely something that is tradable. I'll be doing some research.

 

[johnarb]

Thanks John.
It seems to me it's more a commodity than a currency. Supply and demand determine the price. Definitely something that is tradable. I'll be doing some research.

No worries, dog

Bitcoin is considered property and taxed as such in the US

It's funny to see the power struggle between SEC and CFTC on Twitter, when Gensler tried to overstep his authority and says that most cryptos are securities, and Giancarlo tweets back that crypto assets are commodities under CFTC jurisdiction

Bitcoin is of course long been defined as a commodity asset

I don't own any stock share, only options which will expire next month, good riddance

Let's say you purchased 1000 shares of AMZN stock from your broker, what do you own. I say you to you that you own nothing but you'll argue that you own a piece of the company, a share of the company's earnings, DCF, EV, etc.

Amzn does not give dividends and if you try to go into any Amazon facility and claim you own a piece of the company and you need one of the vans, security will throw you out. $3.5M of "nothing" that you can sell to the market, that's nice and you get to vote on shareholder issues, except they have 450M outstanding, you don't have much voice

I'm just rambling on... but here's a thought, let's say Canada's next President is a dictator and a cat lover and dog hater and decreed anyone associated with a dog is to be arrested and put in jail, all assets confiscated, and all financial accounts frozen

You happen to be on vacation in South Korea with your family. You know what's waiting for you when you get back home. If you had majority of your net worth in Bitcoin, and you have access to your private keys, you'll be fine

Bitcoin is a global asset and you will have no problems utilizing the value in South Korea, Japan or Singapore

If you have 15 minutes, watch this video that I started at the point where it might provide clarity on what I'm trying to say above