who is we?
Can you beat someone who religiously buy and hold bitcoin from inception with trading?
- Thread starter HolyGrailSeeker
- Start date
who is we?
What? I Ponzi scheme means paying old investors with new investor money. Bitcoin is open source software where you can see every rule of the protocol ... completely transparent. That is the opposite of a Ponzi scheme.
These words have meaning. You can't just call something a Ponzi because you missed it.
Dear OP, let me explain why your question is dumb:
You could have asked, can you beat a constant Tesla stock buyer since the IPO? Obviously we can't...
Or instead of BTC or TSLA, you could have used any high return stock. The point is, nobody knew back then they would perform this way.
But if you ask: Can you beat a constant buyer of a crypto from now on? That is a valid question. Most of the big move is behind BTC, so we shall see how averaging in would work for you.
Personally I believe playing the wheel on crypto stocks is a better return, because:
1. Even if it runs up, you probably wouldn't sell, thus you would time the top wrong.
2. You make money, no matter what the stock/crypto does (well, almost). Time works for you.
If you are honestly interested in the answer, you can check out Baron's crypto journal. And stop asking dumb questions...
You could have asked, can you beat a constant Tesla stock buyer since the IPO? Obviously we can't...
Or instead of BTC or TSLA, you could have used any high return stock. The point is, nobody knew back then they would perform this way.
But if you ask: Can you beat a constant buyer of a crypto from now on? That is a valid question. Most of the big move is behind BTC, so we shall see how averaging in would work for you.
Personally I believe playing the wheel on crypto stocks is a better return, because:
1. Even if it runs up, you probably wouldn't sell, thus you would time the top wrong.
2. You make money, no matter what the stock/crypto does (well, almost). Time works for you.
If you are honestly interested in the answer, you can check out Baron's crypto journal. And stop asking dumb questions...
"Most of the big move is behind BTC"
Just wondering why do you say this? I dont necessarily disagree, but its a qustion I have been wondering myself.
There really isn't empirical evidence that these returns are slowing down. So this must just be an option/judgement call. Do you just say that because there "should" be a limit as far as how big the market cap of BTC can get? It's 1T now ... I certainly can see it moving to 10T in the next couple of years. That's pretty good returns ... something I am debating with myself. Seems logic that these returns should decrease, but is that actually true?
Would love to hear your thoughts.
Well, it went from 5 cents (or whatever) to 66K. Even if it triples from here in the next X months, the statement is still true, MOST of its move has already happened.
The reasons are multiple and I don't really want to go into debating it, but at this point it is purely hype, high expectations and hot air, what has been fueling its raise or keeping it up. And that is just fine, after all we have stocks like that, as long as you don't buy into the false narrative backing the story. There is nothing unique or irreplaceable about BTC, so any criticism what you can come up with against a shitcoin can also apply to BTC.
There is actually an interesting thought that all this crazy crypto market will die off with a slow gradual decline, rather then with a huge sell off. If you got used to 50% a year (or whatever) return and BTC slows to 10% year after year, you would probably switch to other coin/investment. Don't forget, the number of cryptos are limitless, and even if it is now a worldwide phenomenon, money will run out sooner than available cryptos to invest in.
Here is a discussion on that topic:
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Great points.
Actually most any investor + many traders could do better than a lotto winner.. A lotto ''player\winner'' in the news got run over, dead on the highway. [Not a big shock/ someone that does not know a lottery is as stupid tax on people that cant do math\ can easy get run over
]Actually\ me + my banker dad, when younger\ did waste$10 on a con; they named the movie ''The Sting'' + get rich quick seemed to work , in the movie anyway.......Dont try that con \get rich quick @ home.
My biggest investment holding is bitcoin btc and I agree with you that I do not think it can do another million % in our lifetime. It's possible, but not probable. If may happen in our children or grand children's lifetime, though
You have to acknowledge that with less reward also comes less risk
Bitcoin when it was 5 cents was a project and experiment in its infancy. Even when it was at $100, it was still a high risk but not as much as when it was at 5 cents
If you want to have full details on the above paragraph, read the books "Digital Gold" and "The Bitcoin Billionaires"
Now, bitcoin carries the least risk of all the crypto assets
Do I even have to mention that bitcoin is on CME futures, bitcoin etf in Canada and Europe and bitcoin futures etf in the US, PayPal, Square, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, Robinhood, Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken, and on AND ON
Less risk = less reward is a concept that should be second nature to everyone here on ET
If you want to go out on a risk curve and make life changing rewards (profits), there are many projects that have done it in the past year
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Good points;
even though trading[ on a non ponzi scheme, non greater f0*l] can diversify in time.
So something real traded could be defensive. Even value investors could do well/Mr Greenblatt did super well.
And when younger he said sarcastic '' I could not understand why the other gamblers were so stupid''LOL
99 to 1 odds on the dog. The dog did finish dead last, but live + learn.Not saying real trading is gambling/Mr Greenblatt just felt a need to note that younger pattern.....
It's so difficult to trade Bitcoin or any other alt coin. Just having a stop loss is difficult because with these heavy manipulated markets the exchange owners and big players know where everyone keeps their stop losses at and they will always move the market to trigger it before shooting the other direction. You actually save more money not having a stop or using a phone alert system.
Swing trading is where it's at. Holding is less risky and less profitable than swing trading, but safer
Swing trading is where it's at. Holding is less risky and less profitable than swing trading, but safer