Can you beat someone who religiously buy and hold bitcoin from inception with trading?

HolyGrailSeeker said:
As in the case above you said so yourself that there is no way to beat a buy and hold investor that got in from the start. You can make money from trading bitcoin from the start, but it definitely won't be more than an early investor due to the exponential returns he has.

What the investor is playing is an offensive strategy. He is buying a chance that bitcoin succeeds, but if it fails in another timeline he loses everything.

While trading is a defensive strategy in a sense that if bitcoin fails you cut your losses and get out. Always protecting your capital and placing safe bets with risk management.
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I just don't get the "beat" part. I am not competing with an investor in at the start. Why should I worry about "beating" them?
 
For people saying someone who got in early got lucky, all I have to say is LMAO :D

I bought my first bitcoin at $100 and bought more as it kept going up all the way to over $1,000 in 2014 and experienced my first bear market, absolute horrible experience

I saw many who quit bitcoin and cryptos during that bear market. Swore it off

Here's a video that shows the crash except it ended in 2015, but the bitcoin bottom in that bear market cycle was in 2016 at around $150 per bitcoin

Fuck "being lucky" You have no idea what it's like

 
We traded bitcoin the first year Coinbase opened for business. Recently sold everything at 64k. Of course a million bitcoin investors will claim our decision was premature, but our timeline and fractal geometry led to our exit strategy.

As Bob Volman so eloquently stated "That is why trading is such a fascinating clash of opposing ideas and insights. It is this perpetual disagreement on price and value that causes the market to provide endless liquidity to all participants involved."
 
johnarb said:
For people saying someone who got in early got lucky, all I have to say is LMAO :D

I bought my first bitcoin at $100 and bought more as it kept going up all the way to over $1,000 in 2014 and experienced my first bear market, absolute horrible experience

I saw many who quit bitcoin and cryptos during that bear market. Swore it off

Here's a video that shows the crash except it ended in 2015, but the bitcoin bottom in that bear market cycle was in 2016 at around $150 per bitcoin

Fuck "being lucky" You have no idea what it's like

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you are doing very well as an investor.

If I were an investor or swing trader, I would be losing $$$.
 
HolyGrailSeeker said:
That is based on hindsight and retro fitted data. There are also lots of ranging months so you would be prone to whipsaws.
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And buying 1000 dollars worth and now being rich beyond your wildest dreams isn't hindsight.

I haven't looked at the chart but it will depend on how you define a trend. I define it as making higher highs and higher lows (reverse for down trend) A ranging month might not change a trend.

I'm not sure you will have the moves you did in the past, but trading the trend tends to out perform buy and hold. Of course you get whipsawed at times but you don't lose a lot. All you need is a couple cases with an extreme drop where you sell high and buy low to outperform buy and hold. After a situation where you have sold then bought back at a lower price you will have more shares that when you started.

If you have an instrument that never changes trend then buy and hold will end up the same as a trend follower because the trend follower will have held because there was no reason to exit.
 
HolyGrailSeeker said:
I realized you can't.

Let's say you know for a fact that bitcoin price right now in Nov 2021 is $56k and you were time travelled back to its inception in 2009/2010 when it sold for say $0.06 at the start.

What will be the best strategy? Let's say you do not know how it moves up and down, just that it will be $56k today. How would you trade it, or just buy and hold?

To me, I view trading as a defensive strategy. If you knew for certain the price now back then, just buy and hold while DCA-ing monthly seems like the best strategy. If you trade it, it means placing stop losses and selling at a loss and it would be silly to say sell at $8 to buyback at $5 or $35 to buy back at $28 when you know it's going to $56k. If you place a stop loss it could hit and go up higher so it's not for certain that you can always buyback cheaper too.

Discuss.
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Best strategy in this case is doing nothing. This is basically call option / insurance, if you know that price will be $56k, enjoy your life and exercise your $0.06 "call option" in 2021.
 
traider said:
Yes, HFT market making beats everything in terms of risk adjusted returns.
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I don't believe it.
crypto things move relatively slowly, and the bid-offer spread is relatively wide.

High-frequency traders will die in such an environment.
 
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