Can you beat BTC by trading ES futures, and add proof.

[Sprout]

Fair does not count.
Reality is what counts. ES has more possibilities to increase the returns than BTC, that's reality.
My account only cares about reality.
With IF's you cannot make money, but you can beat in your imagination any other product. You can even be a billionaire on no time. Just depends of how big your imagination is.

When you compare intraday ES trading to a 80% drawdown of BTC, that is comparing two different trading periods and comes across as intellectually dis-honest.

You mention valid points and the ES is a great product to trade.

It’s clear that you don’t trade BTC/cryptos with the same intentionality nor as effectively as you do the ES.

Cool. Nbd, enjoy your comfort zone, and to each their own.

 

[virtusa]

When you compare intraday ES trading to a 80% drawdown of BTC, that is comparing two different trading periods and comes across as intellectually dis-honest.

I compared the two for the entire period 2012-2021. So it was correct and not dishonest.

The drawdown was just to mention where the BTC is losing dramatically while the ES continues business as usual. In these periods the gap between the two grows fast.
The ES, when traded well, grows day by day, while the BTC jumps up and down and causes huge positive and negative returns.
When I was trading for investors a long time ago, they had several questions about things that were important for them:

• what is your yearly return over the last x years
• are you returns consistent
• how big and frequent are the drawdowns
• how long is the recovery time of these drawdowns

Not a single investor would have given me money if I would show the stats of BTC.

It’s clear that you don’t trade BTC/cryptos with the same intentionality nor as effectively as you do the ES.

I did study the BTC, but intraday the moves are many times unpredictable, and they did not match my trading system.

 

[newwurldmn]

The way it works for me is very simple:

• I invest $xxx in an account to trade ES futures.
• I also invest $xxx in an account to trade BTC.

I watch how much money there is in both accounts in 2021 and see that the amount in the ES account is much bigger than the amount in the BTC acccount. That's clear and hard proof, and the only thing that matters. In both accounts the starting capital was the same and each account could maximize the specific advantages of that account to make money.
ES has advantages from compounding, leverage, small margins and high frequency of trading. ES demands however more screen hours and size is limited (so no endless compounding).
BTC has the advantage that market can go crazy and explode. But it can also implode, or needs years to recover from a drawdown (happened twice). During these recovery periods the ES continues to make money every day.




The notional of BTC went up too. So no difference.



I daytrade the ES, so several trades each day. Your point is only valid if I would trade only one time a day. Because of leverage I don't need to take average spx daily volatility perfectly as at (for example) leverage 10 I need only 10% of it instead of 100%. Leverage facilitates to get the needed daily returns. It is however working against you in a losing trade at the same speed. All depends of your daytrading skills.

Volatility is just one aspect, there is also margins, leverage, compounding, frequency...
To calculate the profits in ES you need to know:

• margin used
• account size
• maximum position you take
• expectancy
• compounding used or not

As you don't have that information you cannot calculate in any way what the returns of ES futures would be.

You are taking my statements as hostile when they actually aren’t.
Of course leverage and compounding affect your net returns.

how much leverage do you run? If you have 10k in the account, how much notional are you trading at any given time?

200x means 10k is worth about 2mm assuming you aren’t paying taxes. Are you paying taxes? At what point do you start to get capacity constrained?

 

[virtusa]

You are taking my statements as hostile when they actually aren’t.
Of course leverage and compounding affect your net returns.

how much leverage do you run? If you have 10k in the account, how much notional are you trading at any given time?

200x means 10k is worth about 2mm assuming you aren’t paying taxes. Are you paying taxes? At what point do you start to get capacity constrained?

I already shared what I wish to share. There are a lot of trolls on ET (not you), so I don't want to start discussions with them.

I don't take your statements as hostile. To me several of them have no valid use for me. I like to keep it simple: put the same amount for the same period in ES and BTC and trade them. Watch the result in 2021. Simple, very clear and less risk for wrong calculations.

Your calculations about 200x is the result for BTC, I never mentioned my leverage nor my account size. I only said I beat these returns by far.
I pay the taxes I have to pay, but they are extremely low.

 

[newwurldmn]

I already shared what I wish to share. There are a lot of trolls on ET (not you), so I don't want to start discussions with them.

I don't take your statements as hostile. To me several of them have no valid use for me. I like to keep it simple: put the same amount for the same period in ES and BTC and trade them. Watch the result in 2021. Simple, very clear and less risk for wrong calculations.

Your calculations about 200x is the result for BTC, I never mentioned my leverage nor my account size. I only said I beat these returns by far.
I pay the taxes I have to pay, but they are extremely low.

good for you for generating those returns.

 

[Sprout]

I compared the two for the entire period 2012-2021. So it was correct and not dishonest.

The drawdown was just to mention where the BTC is losing dramatically while the ES continues business as usual. In these periods the gap between the two grows fast.
The ES, when traded well, grows day by day, while the BTC jumps up and down and causes huge positive and negative returns.
When I was trading for investors a long time ago, they had several questions about things that were important for them:

• what is your yearly return over the last x years
• are you returns consistent
• how big and frequent are the drawdowns
• how long is the recovery time of these drawdowns

Not a single investor would have given me money if I would show the stats of BTC.



I did study the BTC, but intraday the moves are many times unpredictable, and they did not match my trading system.

Fair enough. I applaud your success.

Perhaps one day your perspective might change as your trading system adapts and evolves with changing market conditions.

 

[kellycobb]

I think ES generates much better profits and in less time as compared to bitcoin. Bitcoin’s high volatility leads to a lot of changes in the prices.