Buffet is overrated as a stock picker, but his move to stay long in this market is a good one.
The market is surging off the 8,000 support. There is no good reason why we can't end the day 400 points higher.
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Can you all feel the tension ?
- Thread starter capmac
- Start date
Buffet is overrated as a stock picker, but his move to stay long in this market is a good one.
The market is surging off the 8,000 support. There is no good reason why we can't end the day 400 points higher.
Throwing in the Towel on This Market?
by: Roger Nusbaum November 18, 2008
Yesterday's decline felt like the market just gave up, it grew weary of fighting. There's no way to substantiate that of course - it just a feeling I had in seeing it unfold. Early in the day I wrote about a slow capitulation in the market in my greenfaucet post, and coincidentally the close played into that.
This leads to some meaty theoretical stuff and I certainly don't have all the answers. By now you should have figured out whether you think 40-50% down from the peak will be about it, or more like 80% (just picking two extremes - you can think of it however you want).
I said weeks ago that if you really thought this was the Great Depression coming at us again, you should sell. That probably still stands up now. If you do not think down 80% is in the cards, then selling now would simply be selling low, very low.
Anyone reading this site for a while knows I do not think this will be a Depression. I think the bottom is about in, in terms of price, but that we will have several more months of running up and down in roughly the same range we have been in recently.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/106589-throwing-in-the-towel-on-this-market?source=article_sb_picks
by: Roger Nusbaum November 18, 2008
Yesterday's decline felt like the market just gave up, it grew weary of fighting. There's no way to substantiate that of course - it just a feeling I had in seeing it unfold. Early in the day I wrote about a slow capitulation in the market in my greenfaucet post, and coincidentally the close played into that.
This leads to some meaty theoretical stuff and I certainly don't have all the answers. By now you should have figured out whether you think 40-50% down from the peak will be about it, or more like 80% (just picking two extremes - you can think of it however you want).
I said weeks ago that if you really thought this was the Great Depression coming at us again, you should sell. That probably still stands up now. If you do not think down 80% is in the cards, then selling now would simply be selling low, very low.
Anyone reading this site for a while knows I do not think this will be a Depression. I think the bottom is about in, in terms of price, but that we will have several more months of running up and down in roughly the same range we have been in recently.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/106589-throwing-in-the-towel-on-this-market?source=article_sb_picks