Or end up with an account so small you no longer care.
Can this really happen
- Thread starter Jdesey
- Start date
The only thing I would add to the other good advice given here is that if you have a downside bias, be aware that that bias represents a source of greater risk in this environment. TPTB have several very effective ways of propping up stocks, and the big whooshes like we got on Friday generally only happen when they're good and ready. Throw in the element of spoofing that taints ES and the algos which drive it...and, those who prefer to short must work a lot harder for their profits.
What I really meant is that shorts appear to become profitable trades faster and more reliably then the long. This is just personal observation. I profit on loangs and shorts. But one thing I do track his time in trade. And I can tell you from my journal that I spend less time in a profitable short then I do a long. Just an observation
Take a look at charts and you'll see what I mean. At one point in my life I was professional financial advisor and large firm. I can tell you firsthand that I saw a lot of panic selling. Two emotions that drive investing fear and greed. I know for sure that the fear of losing far outweighs the feeling of missing on a profit. I don't think I've ever witnessed panic buying. We need to keep in mind that it is people to drive the markets and people equal emotions.
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On ES just watch it as it can have alot of "mean reversion", pun intended. On a normal wide sideways range day or wide channel if it gives you 2 points i'd grab it and enter again if trend continues. That is, if one doesn't grab the two points on many days he will just see those 2 point disappear market reverse and stop hit.
But on a good trend day slow or grinding i'd stick trading pb to or close to a 21 ema. See example.
But like i said on others days if Es is giving 2 points i take it. Many times i even take 1 point if it doesnt appear it will make me two points. Your risk is two points but on trades that pan out with actual risk being 1 point or less then i will grab a 1 point profit giving me RR 1:1. Why? Because high probability generally means less reward. If i was risking two points but the market only went against 1 point of less i am getting out quicker. I know that sounds backwards but check it out. you will see alot of reversion when actual risk is little then bam stopped out.
On trend days where patterns are failing over and over then of course i will stay in longer for bigger moves.
6 trades at 1 point equals your 6 point goal.
Or
3 trades at 2 points equals your goal. Easy to get that many trades a day in the ES.
I totally agree. Much higher probability to nail three trades for two points each rather than trying to hit some kind of homerun. Overtime I've become an absolute scalper and it just works for me.