Can Start Buying Natty Now

Thanks alot for the reply Sciarabino!

So while, we won't be seeing a sharp price change in UNG while traders rollover into the new front month (w/ built-in premium) it WILL still see the price appreciation, just more spread out, right? I have longer-term targets of $10+ for NG so thats totally cool if tick by tick movements don't correspond... I'll just have to keep an eye on the NG aswell.
 
Quote from scriabinop23:



So this winter as we easily hit (if $86 oil keeps up) $9.00-10.00 gas on front month contracts
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I for one hope you're right, but without a storm or major cold snap, 9.00 or 10.00 is going to be difficult. We haven't had a settlement over 8.00 since last December, and that is also the only front month contract to have traded over 9.00 in the past year or so. Before NGZ6, NGG6 was the most recent contract to settle over 8 bucks, and that was in the period following Katrina. From what I hear, at this point forecasters are predicting a warmer than normal winter, so unless we start off with a nasty cold spell I think we may head a bit south. Again, I hope you're correct, but I don't know how easily we'll get there. Here's to hoping though!
 
Quote from PJKIII:

I for one hope you're right, but without a storm or major cold snap, 9.00 or 10.00 is going to be difficult. We haven't had a settlement over 8.00 since last December, and that is also the only front month contract to have traded over 9.00 in the past year or so. Before NGZ6, NGG6 was the most recent contract to settle over 8 bucks, and that was in the period following Katrina. From what I hear, at this point forecasters are predicting a warmer than normal winter, so unless we start off with a nasty cold spell I think we may head a bit south. Again, I hope you're correct, but I don't know how easily we'll get there. Here's to hoping though!
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hmm.. i thought we had a close or two above 8.00 early in the spring. (before the super dump) agree though, the fundamentals could point to lower gas.

but its occured to me -- 50-75% of the time, energy isn't trading on the 'fundamentals' we look at.
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

hmm.. i thought we had a close or two above 8.00 early in the spring. (before the super dump) agree though, the fundamentals could point to lower gas.

but its occured to me -- 50-75% of the time, energy isn't trading on the 'fundamentals' we look at.
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Oh yes, we did settle over 8.00 several times on a daily basis, I just meant final contract settlement, and NGZ6 was the last time there was a final contract settle over 8.

You point is a good one, as we clearly aren't trading on fundamentals in the oil complex, and natty can trade far from what would seem to be its "fair value" for lengthy periods of time.
 
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