Can Start Buying Natty Now
- Thread starter Comanche
- Start date
I wished Ingrid would become hurricane, so I can sell into rally.
I guess it's not happening, but I'm short NGs there (Friday close) plus long few puts, all in Oct contract. I'm still a fan of Oct expiration at, or near, or under $6. This is great market to short any rally up until beginnig of November.
witnessing with pleasure how low life traders with hopes and prayers come to buy it, just to give professionals opportunity to sell it. Keep it up!
I guess it's not happening, but I'm short NGs there (Friday close) plus long few puts, all in Oct contract. I'm still a fan of Oct expiration at, or near, or under $6. This is great market to short any rally up until beginnig of November.
witnessing with pleasure how low life traders with hopes and prayers come to buy it, just to give professionals opportunity to sell it. Keep it up!
for pete;s sake, it stayed up near the selling point all day
this is not a trading room
as i have said, i don't really TRADE natgas.
i hedge with it, and i buy on weakness, sell into strength - mostly using UNG
when everybody is euphoric, you will see me selling
when everybody is panicking and praying, im buying
it's really that simple
like i said, (look back over my posts) weakness is a buying opp (mentioned several times) and strength is a selling op (for at least a partial sale)
people lose in commodities, mostly because they over-leverage, and they chase.
commodities are not stocks. the best cure for low prices is LOW PRICES
i was pimping oil BIG TIME $20 ago
now, i am not interested at all. sure, i still hold about 1/5 my original position, but chasing is almost always stupid
i am an intraday trader of index futures. that's how i make my living
and i do give realtime calls, but not for free
as for commodities, i use these mostly as a portfolio hedge.
buy weakness, sell strength,... rinse, lather, repeat
this is not a trading room
as i have said, i don't really TRADE natgas.
i hedge with it, and i buy on weakness, sell into strength - mostly using UNG
when everybody is euphoric, you will see me selling
when everybody is panicking and praying, im buying
it's really that simple
like i said, (look back over my posts) weakness is a buying opp (mentioned several times) and strength is a selling op (for at least a partial sale)
people lose in commodities, mostly because they over-leverage, and they chase.
commodities are not stocks. the best cure for low prices is LOW PRICES
i was pimping oil BIG TIME $20 ago
now, i am not interested at all. sure, i still hold about 1/5 my original position, but chasing is almost always stupid
i am an intraday trader of index futures. that's how i make my living
and i do give realtime calls, but not for free
as for commodities, i use these mostly as a portfolio hedge.
buy weakness, sell strength,... rinse, lather, repeat
Quote from whitster:
i am an intraday trader of index futures. that's how i make my living
and i do give realtime calls, but not for free
Just an observation whitster. After 35+ years of trading, I would suggest that you trade to get wealthy, not trade "to make your living".
Now as to the realtime calls. I'm not looking for one. I'm well qualified to make my own trades after all these years. LOL. My point is that if you're going to talk about your trades that you made, then at least talk about trades that you made in real time, by either posting the trades here on the board, or posting some type of blotter of the trade. Otherwise, they become these "hindsight" types of trades which may well have been made, but no one has a way of knowing whether they were or they weren't. I can always applaud, if that what you want I suppose.
OldTrader
"Just an observation whitster. After 35+ years of trading, I would suggest that you trade to get wealthy, not trade "to make your living".
that;s great. but let me repeat. i trade for CURRENT INCOME
that is what i use the futures for.
i INVEST to build wealth. that works (and has for quite some time) quite well for me. my futures profits go into longterm stuff. as an investor i aim to build wealth. i am (generally) a contrarian and a value player. that got me into gold funds in 1998, for instance and i was nowhere NEAR tech stocks.
that's how i invest.
i am very interested in managing risk and building wealth, not playing momo stuff (not in my longterm accounts). i sleep well at night and consistently build a portfolio i can trust.
i TRADE for income. that means i diligently manage risk, i know EXACTLY what the statistics are for my setups and i know that given proper discipline, they have positive expectancy.
i also make income from mentoring traders.
"Now as to the realtime calls. I'm not looking for one. I'm well qualified to make my own trades after all these years. LOL. My point is that if you're going to talk about your trades that you made, then at least talk about trades that you made in real time, by either posting the trades here on the board, or posting some type of blotter of the trade. Otherwise, they become these "hindsight" types of trades which may well have been made, but no one has a way of knowing whether they were or they weren't. I can always applaud, if that what you want I suppose."
oh, rubbish.
go back. i recommended when to buy and sell, and that was about as close to realtime as you can get. literally within a tick or two.
like i said, i don't TRADE (shortterm) natgas. i use it as a hedge. when i got LUCK enough to get a 15% + pop in several days, i took profit of course.
and i called both my entry and my exit here.
that;s great. but let me repeat. i trade for CURRENT INCOME
that is what i use the futures for.
i INVEST to build wealth. that works (and has for quite some time) quite well for me. my futures profits go into longterm stuff. as an investor i aim to build wealth. i am (generally) a contrarian and a value player. that got me into gold funds in 1998, for instance and i was nowhere NEAR tech stocks.
that's how i invest.
i am very interested in managing risk and building wealth, not playing momo stuff (not in my longterm accounts). i sleep well at night and consistently build a portfolio i can trust.
i TRADE for income. that means i diligently manage risk, i know EXACTLY what the statistics are for my setups and i know that given proper discipline, they have positive expectancy.
i also make income from mentoring traders.
"Now as to the realtime calls. I'm not looking for one. I'm well qualified to make my own trades after all these years. LOL. My point is that if you're going to talk about your trades that you made, then at least talk about trades that you made in real time, by either posting the trades here on the board, or posting some type of blotter of the trade. Otherwise, they become these "hindsight" types of trades which may well have been made, but no one has a way of knowing whether they were or they weren't. I can always applaud, if that what you want I suppose."
oh, rubbish.
go back. i recommended when to buy and sell, and that was about as close to realtime as you can get. literally within a tick or two.
like i said, i don't TRADE (shortterm) natgas. i use it as a hedge. when i got LUCK enough to get a 15% + pop in several days, i took profit of course.
and i called both my entry and my exit here.
to clarify another point, about statistics.
my TRADING is statistics based. my INVESTING is not.
thus, in trades, i don't enter unless it fits specific criteria that i KNOW i can count on to give me X point, with Y points of risk with a profitable trade V % of the time
i invest with an eye on value, a contrarian eye, diversification, and a bit of a peter lynchian approach (that got me in CROX UA and GOOG at or near IPO's)
i rarely even LOOK at a chart when i invest. it's a last resort thing. once i decide an investment is a good one, then i might (might) look at a chart.
in trading, i am always looking at charts (and market profile) because value means NOTHING when you are entering at 0945 hrs and exiting 30 minutes later, but EVERYTHING when you are buying a stock you intend to hold for 1-10 + years.
my TRADING is statistics based. my INVESTING is not.
thus, in trades, i don't enter unless it fits specific criteria that i KNOW i can count on to give me X point, with Y points of risk with a profitable trade V % of the time
i invest with an eye on value, a contrarian eye, diversification, and a bit of a peter lynchian approach (that got me in CROX UA and GOOG at or near IPO's)
i rarely even LOOK at a chart when i invest. it's a last resort thing. once i decide an investment is a good one, then i might (might) look at a chart.
in trading, i am always looking at charts (and market profile) because value means NOTHING when you are entering at 0945 hrs and exiting 30 minutes later, but EVERYTHING when you are buying a stock you intend to hold for 1-10 + years.
Whitster,
Are you pleased with trading/investing in UNG as a proxy for natural gas futures?
I've done USO for crude in an IRA and have been not fully pleased.
I have traded NG before, but the carrying costs too often sucked the profit out of a winning trade held for weeks.
UNG is a decent proxy.
much like USO (and please compare USO with DBO), ETF's can suffer (or benefit) from the whole contango vs. backwardation thang
again, i am using these as a hedge as much as i am using them to make money.
if you pull up a chart of USO, buying on panic (hedge fund liquidation /forced selling) and then just waiting was a great strategy
i mean you just KNEW oil was coming back.
however, it significantly underperformed the spot price.
that IS an issue.
much like USO (and please compare USO with DBO), ETF's can suffer (or benefit) from the whole contango vs. backwardation thang
again, i am using these as a hedge as much as i am using them to make money.
if you pull up a chart of USO, buying on panic (hedge fund liquidation /forced selling) and then just waiting was a great strategy
i mean you just KNEW oil was coming back.
however, it significantly underperformed the spot price.
that IS an issue.