Can Start Buying Natty Now
- Thread starter Comanche
- Start date
Quote from Sequoia:
Thanks for the link, I have to educate myself on futures. Derivatives is a good training though
How do you analyse long term trends if futures support change every month ? Is there another NG to watch for , let's say, 5 years trend ?
You can plot the "continuous contract", if you have say a longer term horizon, you can position a further out contract like an October.
Longer term for me is tommorow!
el surdo
Uhhh lets see enormous short OI and John Arnold's fixed float swaps for August ended up way way in the +$ column... good time for him to drive prices the other way and precipitate a short covering rally on all the people who rolled over.. wait he already has started that.....
Fundamentals don't seem to be driving this market in the short run, rather its that market dynamic comanche was talking about. I always thought people who said spec fund money was controlling the market were wrong but arnold's fund is a pure energy play with over $6B to work with. Between him and T Boone's BP Capital multi $B fund they must have a huge portion of OI in futures, fixed float swaps, and I'm guessing now they even contract for physical storage....
Comanche.. your thoughts?
Fundamentals don't seem to be driving this market in the short run, rather its that market dynamic comanche was talking about. I always thought people who said spec fund money was controlling the market were wrong but arnold's fund is a pure energy play with over $6B to work with. Between him and T Boone's BP Capital multi $B fund they must have a huge portion of OI in futures, fixed float swaps, and I'm guessing now they even contract for physical storage....
Comanche.. your thoughts?
Aren't those Comanche's thoughts?
Hey guys. Sorry for the tardiness, have a nasty upper resp. infection/cough from hell.
Things seem to be unfolding the right way, now that arnold huge short in august rolled off friday. At least at this point there is no axe to grind keeping it down. I think his biggest position now is short oct/long nov, so not really all that directional. I did see some big fund buying today.
As of last tuesday, cot's show the largest spec short on record at the lowest prices of the year. This to me is fuel for a bonfire, and the match is the tropics. There are 2 areas we are watching at the moment, both are in the wave train (not watching the one n of bahamas as it will move northeast). The closest one to the windwards already has circulation but the convection declined this afternoon. hope to see it refire tonight. the area behind this is the one that interest joe bastardi the most, so there is something for everyone!
Also to note is that the heat is more intense than it was forecasted last week, this should carry over for the next few weeks as well.
So in my opinion natty has a much better risk/reward profile approaching it from the buy side at the moment.
glad i rolled my length over from august!!
Things seem to be unfolding the right way, now that arnold huge short in august rolled off friday. At least at this point there is no axe to grind keeping it down. I think his biggest position now is short oct/long nov, so not really all that directional. I did see some big fund buying today.
As of last tuesday, cot's show the largest spec short on record at the lowest prices of the year. This to me is fuel for a bonfire, and the match is the tropics. There are 2 areas we are watching at the moment, both are in the wave train (not watching the one n of bahamas as it will move northeast). The closest one to the windwards already has circulation but the convection declined this afternoon. hope to see it refire tonight. the area behind this is the one that interest joe bastardi the most, so there is something for everyone!
Also to note is that the heat is more intense than it was forecasted last week, this should carry over for the next few weeks as well.
So in my opinion natty has a much better risk/reward profile approaching it from the buy side at the moment.
glad i rolled my length over from august!!