maybe we should make a task of defining all futures markets that have products similar to this, with matching depth (or lack thereof). This way, you know where figuring net short vs. long positions in OI are not a useful trade indicator.
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Can Start Buying Natty Now
- Thread starter Comanche
- Start date
maybe we should make a task of defining all futures markets that have products similar to this, with matching depth (or lack thereof). This way, you know where figuring net short vs. long positions in OI are not a useful trade indicator.
Is the winter spread wideness really that far from ordinary? Is it not correct that last year had similar situation with the winter spreads' contango? That same spread (V/X) last year went to -2.20 before it was done. Similar on the X/Z this year and last. I don't know, I still can't figure out NG spreads...
Any rate, I think NG is a buy here and I'm dipping my toe in sept. at 5.95. At least get some long term channel support here... I don't like these daily gaps, but I don't feel it's going too much lower before at least a good bounce.
Scria, Commanche, always appreciate your commentaries... Great call on the mid-June short from 8+, btw, commanche.
Any rate, I think NG is a buy here and I'm dipping my toe in sept. at 5.95. At least get some long term channel support here... I don't like these daily gaps, but I don't feel it's going too much lower before at least a good bounce.
Scria, Commanche, always appreciate your commentaries... Great call on the mid-June short from 8+, btw, commanche.
Quote from bunkinc:
Is the winter spread wideness really that far from ordinary? Is it not correct that last year had similar situation with the winter spreads' contango? That same spread (V/X) last year went to -2.20 before it was done. Similar on the X/Z this year and last. I don't know, I still can't figure out NG spreads...
Any rate, I think NG is a buy here and I'm dipping my toe in sept. at 5.95. At least get some long term channel support here... I don't like these daily gaps, but I don't feel it's going too much lower before at least a good bounce.
Scria, Commanche, always appreciate your commentaries... Great call on the mid-June short from 8+, btw, commanche.
besides last yr and this, (especially last) v/x has never been so wild. historically at these price levels it should be a .35 or so spread.
they have to fix this ICE arb... it looks like same hedge fund gets to the office every day and adds 1k or 2k contracts to its short position at 7am-8am in a thin market...
UPDATE: CFTC Charges Amaranth, Hunter With Manipulation
Jul 25, 2007 09:01:54 (ET)
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed civil charges against hedge fund Amaranth Advisors LLC and former natural-gas trader Brian Hunter, alleging they schemed to manipulate prices in early 2006.
The agency charges Amaranth and Hunter "intentionally and unlawfully attempted to manipulate the price of natural gas futures contracts" on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Feb. 24 and April 26, 2006.
Feb. 24 was the last day of trading for the March 2006 Nymex natural gas futures contract and April 26 was the expiration day of the May 2006 contract.
The CTFC alleges that on both days, Amaranth and Hunter bought more than 3,000 contracts in advance of the closing range, which they planned to, and for the most part did, sell during the closing range. By doing so, the defendants intended to drive the price of the natural-gas futures lower.
At the same time, Amaranth and Hunter held large short positions in natural gas financially settled swaps, primarily held on IntercontinentalExchange Inc.'s (ICE) trading platform. The swaps in question become more valuable with lower prices.
"This case demonstrates the commission's ongoing vigilance to punish those who attempt to compromise the integrity of the futures markets," said CFTC Acting Chairman Walter Lukken. "The CFTC continues in its unwavering determination to ensure that the futures markets operate in an open and competitive manner free from price distortions."
Last fall, the commodity hedge fund collapsed after it lost about $6 billion when it couldn't easily exit esoteric trades that went against it. It was the largest hedge fund failure in history.
The CFTC also alleges that when asked about trading on April 26, 2006 by Nymex, Amaranth "made false statements to Nymex to cover up defendants' attempted manipulation."
FIX ICE!!!!
Jul 25, 2007 09:01:54 (ET)
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed civil charges against hedge fund Amaranth Advisors LLC and former natural-gas trader Brian Hunter, alleging they schemed to manipulate prices in early 2006.
The agency charges Amaranth and Hunter "intentionally and unlawfully attempted to manipulate the price of natural gas futures contracts" on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Feb. 24 and April 26, 2006.
Feb. 24 was the last day of trading for the March 2006 Nymex natural gas futures contract and April 26 was the expiration day of the May 2006 contract.
The CTFC alleges that on both days, Amaranth and Hunter bought more than 3,000 contracts in advance of the closing range, which they planned to, and for the most part did, sell during the closing range. By doing so, the defendants intended to drive the price of the natural-gas futures lower.
At the same time, Amaranth and Hunter held large short positions in natural gas financially settled swaps, primarily held on IntercontinentalExchange Inc.'s (ICE) trading platform. The swaps in question become more valuable with lower prices.
"This case demonstrates the commission's ongoing vigilance to punish those who attempt to compromise the integrity of the futures markets," said CFTC Acting Chairman Walter Lukken. "The CFTC continues in its unwavering determination to ensure that the futures markets operate in an open and competitive manner free from price distortions."
Last fall, the commodity hedge fund collapsed after it lost about $6 billion when it couldn't easily exit esoteric trades that went against it. It was the largest hedge fund failure in history.
The CFTC also alleges that when asked about trading on April 26, 2006 by Nymex, Amaranth "made false statements to Nymex to cover up defendants' attempted manipulation."
FIX ICE!!!!
2007 Hurricane Outlooks gets Cut by forecaster WSI Corp.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070724/sc_nm/weather_hurricanes_forecasts_dc
From 8 Hurricanes to 6.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070724/sc_nm/weather_hurricanes_forecasts_dc
From 8 Hurricanes to 6.
Quote from eugenie98:
I was totally molested today in crude... I should stick to what I know.. I don't know what precipitated the run up today, the stock report came in bearish... greater product build.. smaller drop in crude stocks than expected.. there was some fund defense today according to comanche
I saw two pertinent news headlines which accounted for the end of day spike:
1) Iran president vows to *never* stop enrichment
2) Russian pipeline explosion
didn't check in detail. not trading it.
cl is in a bull market.
Quote from scriabinop23:
I saw two pertinent news headlines which accounted for the end of day spike:
1) Iran president vows to *never* stop enrichment
2) Russian pipeline explosion
didn't check in detail. not trading it.
cl is in a bull market.
also... refinery utilization was up.. that means less crude backup, meaning WTI can return to strength vs. brent.
i'd be curious to see world supply data to see the entire picture with crude. looking at weekly EIA data alone provides a false sense of the picture if you don't know whats going on with world stocks (ie.. doesn't matter if there is a surplus locally if the strait of hormuz is blocked).