Not buying until around 5.8. If it gets there. If not, no big deal.
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Can Start Buying Natty Now
- Thread starter Comanche
- Start date
Quote from Surdo:
No dip buying today!
5.50/5.750 looks like potential support?
I am not in this game to catch falling knives, and would rather pay up then get runover.
I really do not wanna be long August for too long either.
Sep liquidity should start to pick up soon.
good trading,
el surdo
Actually - i meant the guy commanche who started this thread. Haven't heard from him - has he been taken out? Wondering if he's still holding onto those longs he bought at 6.500.
Quote from Bear Plunger:
Actually - i meant the guy commanche who started this thread. Haven't heard from him - has he been taken out? Wondering if he's still holding onto those longs he bought at 6.500.
Usually when an OP disappears, I assume he either buried himself or made a huge gain and is sitting on Ipanema Beach sipping a Caprihana.
I generally do not have the need to pour salt in someone else's wounds.
I may nibble on NG if we stabilize around these levels.
el surdo
Quote from Surdo:
Usually when an OP disappears, I assume he either buried himself or made a huge gain and is sitting on Ipanema Beach sipping a Caprihana.
I generally do not have the need to pour salt in someone else's wounds.
I may nibble on NG if we stabilize around these levels.
el surdo
Just lurking too. Waiting to go short again if the opportunity comes.
I'm still here, did not get rich and leave and yes, I am long from overhead (6.45). Did not cut this one as my loss happened on the gaps down and without already being long I would be a buyer down here. Most likely I will roll into Sep if we don't rally into expiry first.
The tale of the two funds continues, however the fund I thought would prevail has basically just stepped aside leaving Mr. A in full control.
When Friday comes and August rolls off, so does the major axe to grind on the downside as Mr. As' massive short position rolls off the books. Without this dynamic maybe we can attempt what I had outlined previously with another cycle higher before a price collapse in the fall.
The tale of the two funds continues, however the fund I thought would prevail has basically just stepped aside leaving Mr. A in full control.
When Friday comes and August rolls off, so does the major axe to grind on the downside as Mr. As' massive short position rolls off the books. Without this dynamic maybe we can attempt what I had outlined previously with another cycle higher before a price collapse in the fall.
Hello
I'm still there as well. I bought on the 6.70 level and still holding my position (though my TA was totally invalidated). The falling gap took me by surprise. I am observing the falling knife now, waiting for the bottom, ready to catch some up-movement for some swing trade. Piece of luck, I am not trading it through futures (no leverage) I am "only" taking a 13% loss... At least FCOJ and Coffee are doing well.
SequoiaTradingClub
I'm still there as well. I bought on the 6.70 level and still holding my position (though my TA was totally invalidated). The falling gap took me by surprise. I am observing the falling knife now, waiting for the bottom, ready to catch some up-movement for some swing trade. Piece of luck, I am not trading it through futures (no leverage) I am "only" taking a 13% loss... At least FCOJ and Coffee are doing well.
SequoiaTradingClub
Quote from Comanche:
When Friday comes and August rolls off, so does the major axe to grind on the downside as Mr. As' massive short position rolls off the books. Without this dynamic maybe we can attempt what I had outlined previously with another cycle higher before a price collapse in the fall.
What makes you so sure whoever is controlling the short side of this equation is not going to roll into September short, many funds trade a few months out and it may already be baked in the cake.
The failure to rally back above $6 leads me to believe we are not done with the selloff.
Either way, good luck in Natty, and thanks for updating us.
el surdo
Quote from Surdo:
What makes you so sure whoever is controlling the short side of this equation is not going to roll into September short, many funds trade a few months out and it may already be baked in the cake.
The failure to rally back above $6 leads me to believe we are not done with the selloff.
Either way, good luck in Natty, and thanks for updating us.
el surdo
I've been in a spread shorting nov against long nov, original basis about 20c lower. There's been heavy buying of the winter while this all has been going on.
Right now Nov trades at a 96c premium to Oct. I see no reason that spread shouldn't come in if this were a market that traded on fundamentals. In a market where no supply worries exist and where there's practically no potential to run out of supplies during winter, it doesn't make sense to me that November should carry a 95c premium over October. At these price levels (5-6 handle), we should at best have a 30c winter premium. In a total supply washout, I think even the Mar/Apr spread should invert (ie Apr being more expensive than Mar) despite the winter dynamic existing ... but perceive the carry spread (difference between adjacent months) tightening to narrower levels.
Of course thats a fantasy because this market is totally manipulatable with the ICE contracts being financially settled, so I really see everything is broken by conventionally explainable standards when it comes to contango/backwardation relationships.
http://futuresource.quote.com/chart...G V0' - 'NG X0'&a=W&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=BAR&st=
http://futuresource.quote.com/chart...G V2' - 'NG X2'&a=W&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=BAR&st=
Regardless of all this -- if it is the doing of one fund as Comanche purports, then he'll be set to defend his winter long position the same way he defended a summer short. So getting short after summer below the current winter 7.00 handle probably won't work too well.
I thought the repeated expiration at 7.50 was suspicious from March onward until June ... It seems the best way to get out of spreads for these funds is to not actually close what they open. In other words, defend each month's net position individually seems to be the way they go. (ie letting March expire profitable, then staying naked the April leg and defending its profitable or neutral expiration)
Any thoughts? Is there something about storage dynamics I'm missing? Does the carry cost of storage skyrocket to some unbelievable price when storage is full? I can't imagine a gas buyer (hedger) justifying paying a 95c premium for Nov over Oct gas on futures. I'd just as soon sit out and wait to buy cash, thinking Nov will fall down when it becomes front month (on poor market fundamentals for the longs)
i agree, fixed float swaps on ICE are a hedge funds godsend, if they have the money to throw around they can just defend a position (really manipulate) using fixed float swaps which will cause the nymex futures to be defended as well. Come expiry, the swap is settled financially, no need for them to worry about what to do with all the gas they bought....
Doesn't this allow the futures price to be disconnected from reality? Isn't that contrary to the point of a futures market?
Doesn't this allow the futures price to be disconnected from reality? Isn't that contrary to the point of a futures market?