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Can Start Buying Natty Now
- Thread starter Comanche
- Start date
Quote from Comanche:
Large specs hold their largest short position since jan of 2005, and 3rd largest on record.
Tropics are about to come to life according to my private forecaster, and the last 10 days of july and first 10 days of aug will see a widespread regime of much above normal heat come into play.
The market simply has written off this year too prematurely. I do think we will trade much lower than current prices, but not until we have a major cycle up first.
Get Shorty!!
Everything that you have mentioned above is already well KNOWN by the marketplace.
Quote from Landis82:
Everything that you have mentioned above is already well KNOWN by the marketplace.
thats not meaningful, though. meaningful market dynamic fundamentals can be well known, and price can remain disparate from those fundamentals for any amount of time.
The marketplace knew google had a PEG ratio of nearly under 1.0 less than 2 months ago. Now we are at 555 from 460 in that time.
Quote from scriabinop23:
thats not meaningful, though. meaningful market dynamic fundamentals can be well known, and price can remain disparate from those fundamentals for any amount of time.
I understand that.
But I am also very much aware that NG is in a DOWNTREND and that trumps any fundamentals that people wish to use at this moment to rationalize what they think may happen in the future . . .
As Trader Vic once said, "Observe what is happening, and assume that it will continue."
What a quote! I have lots of respect for trader vic but...
trend following works.. except when it doesnt... which is the case in natural gas trading for near months.. trend following will KILL you at reversal points... although it might work for long term gas trading
not to mention that blind trend following is what most novice investors use, they look at the chart, see an uptrend over the last x time periods, believe past performance is indicative of future performance, buy or sell and wonder where their money went
trend following works.. except when it doesnt... which is the case in natural gas trading for near months.. trend following will KILL you at reversal points... although it might work for long term gas trading
not to mention that blind trend following is what most novice investors use, they look at the chart, see an uptrend over the last x time periods, believe past performance is indicative of future performance, buy or sell and wonder where their money went
Quote from eugenie98:
What a quote! I have lots of respect for trader vic but...
trend following works.. except when it doesnt... which is the case in natural gas trading for near months.. trend following will KILL you at reversal points... although it might work for long term gas trading
not to mention that blind trend following is what most novice investors use, they look at the chart, see an uptrend over the last x time periods, believe past performance is indicative of future performance, buy or sell and wonder where their money went
You could say that about any trading system. It works but when it doesn't you get killed. The fact is, systems work different for different people...meaning trend may work for one guy because of his style or personality...but would kill another guy.
I do agree with what you say about people seeing trend over x amount of pivots or whatever and being too late.