Can SRS reach 300 again? Analyze

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omegapoint

We're on our way up again. Hit 61 from a spiked low of 48 in 3 days ...that ain't bad. The numbers early in week for real estate
hit all time lows so why aren't we up the equivalent of a bull markets highs instead of skidding around on this bottom? Were the stratospheric climbs from Oct thru Nov a result of some of the shorting rulings or is the chance that we can hit those highs again viable? Not real astute with tech but try to follow this: OBV on a 3 day chart has two obvious excursions into negative territory before the modest move up, on a 6 month chart just before the trips into 2-3 hundred land, we have two excursions as well into neg. territory. OBV being a leading indicator, is there a correlation? Are we likely to climb again given no real improvement in the fundamental picture? Appreciate any light shed from experienced techophiles. thanx
 
SRS is about where it's supposed to be:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2275410&#post2275410

I simulated 20,000 25 day price paths for SRS. If ^DJUSRE's volatility stays about the same as it has been over the last few months, the consensus of my models is roughly:

There's a 50% chance the highest closing price of the next 25 trading days will be above 80
There's a 30% chance the highest closing price of the next 25 trading days will be above 100
There's a 10% chance the highest closing price of the next 25 trading days will be above 150

There's a 50% chance the lowest closing price of the next 25 trading days will be below 40
There's a 30% chance the lowest closing price of the next 25 trading days will be below 30
There's a 10% chance the lowest closing price of the next 25 trading days will be below 20
 
srs and other double and double inverse instruments are designed as daytrading instruments and may not be suitable for long term trading. Here' some info from their website


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How should I assess whether a ProShares ETF is tracking its benchmark?
When evaluating the performance of any ProShares ETF to its benchmark, make sure to use the appropriate valuation measures and the correct timeframe.

Don’t confuse market price with NAV. ETF performance is tracked using net asset value (NAV). But investors purchase and sell ETFs at market price. Although an ETF’s market price, its NAV, and its intraday values (real-time estimates of NAV) are typically close, these values may differ—especially in volatile markets (see ETF Pricing Glossary). During the trading day the market price is usually close to the intraday value, and at market close it is usually close to the NAV, but these values may diverge.

The result: the performance you experience, which is based on market prices, can differ from stated performance, which is based on NAV. This difference arises because you may have purchased or sold your ETF shares at a premium or discount to the NAV.

In this respect, ETFs are just like stocks (they trade throughout the day) and unlike mutual funds (which trade once a day, at NAV). This ability to buy and sell throughout the day is one of the primary benefits of ETFs.

Assess on daily performance, not long-term performance. ProShares ETFs seek to achieve their objectives on a daily basis (before fees and expenses).

If you look every day, you can see the daily performance of the NAV (before fees and expenses) and the daily performance of the benchmark.

Investors considering ProShares and other leveraged or short funds with daily objectives should not expect them to achieve their objectives over periods longer than one day, however. There are several reasons for this, but the most significant one is index volatility and its effect on fund compounding. In general, periods of high index volatility will cause the effect of compounding to be more pronounced, while lower index volatility will produce a more muted effect.

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Like most leveraged and short funds, ProShares are designed to provide a positive or negative multiple (e.g., 200%, -200%) of an index’s performance on a daily basis (before fees and expenses). Generally, these funds have achieved their daily objective with a high degree of accuracy and consistency.

However, ProShares and other leveraged or short funds with daily objectives are unlikely to provide a simple multiple (e.g., 2x, -2x) of an index’s performance over periods longer than one day.

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you can read more here

http://www.proshares.com/funds/performance/UnderstandingProSharesLongTermPerformance.html

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Quote from risktaker:

Unlike regular stocks/indexes, 2x or 3x funds have NO long term "memory". There's no support/resistance, etc, etc.
More...
That's what I thought, but SKF has some uncanny support at 100.
 
Quote from omegapoint:

We're on our way up again. Hit 61 from a spiked low of 48 in 3 days ...that ain't bad. The numbers early in week for real estate
hit all time lows so why aren't we up the equivalent of a bull markets highs instead of skidding around on this bottom? Were the stratospheric climbs from Oct thru Nov a result of some of the shorting rulings or is the chance that we can hit those highs again viable?

Not real astute with tech but try to follow this: OBV on a 3 day chart has two obvious excursions into negative territory before the modest move up, on a 6 month chart just before the trips into 2-3 hundred land, we have two excursions as well into neg. territory. OBV being a leading indicator, is there a correlation? Are we likely to climb again given no real improvement in the fundamental picture? Appreciate any light shed from experienced techophiles. thanx
More...

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Alpha-Omegapoint;
Well I also like to look @ the big trend, even though these traders/prospectus gave some real good reasons not to do trade it that way.:D

True, uncanny support & resistance@ 100 area;
but with all the data, most of it is resistance.[Put on all data, draw a straight line @$100]

50 dma says sell it,[ but frankly really doesnt look like a big trend short];
not buy it. Omega you may make money buying SRS , bear market/200dma mostly.

Lot of money made on long side of real estate, even though LEH , BSC, C, IndyMac , sure goofed up thier RE loans.Speaking of double bad banks,SKF[double bear banks ]may hit $300.
50dma says buy, but thats not a stock tip, merely educational.

Some of the other doubles look like better big trends;
uptrends & downtrends.

:cool:
 
Quote from risktaker:

Unlike regular stocks/indexes, 2x or 3x funds have NO long term "memory". There's no support/resistance, etc, etc.
More...

I don't get that. How can anything thats traded by people not have a memory. Please enlighten me ...not being sarcastic just
willing to admit I don't know what I don't know.
 
Well, these ETFs do have some memory, but the lated they've been created - the shorter the memory.
For instance I trade 3-x ETFs (they are quite new) but I have my plan using older once. Like I trade FAS tracking XLF.
The reason is simple - I use volume a lot and for new ETFs volume increases just because they become more popular - so this distorts picture.
Another example I trade DXO/DTO tracking USO etc...

That's what I think - hope it helps
 
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