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Can somone explain to me what horse betting and trading have in common?
- Thread starter etfarb
- Start date
Quote from etfarb:
I get it there both forms of gambling but can someone give me some direct examples of how the two are similar
Probability. You'll get quizzed in it if you ever go in for a job interview at a trading firm. Knowing how to calculate conditional probability.
You need to know the odds for the exacta, trifecta, superfecta, quinella, boxed bet, etc.
Quote from Maverick74:
Probability. You'll get quizzed in it if you ever go in for a job interview at a trading firm. Knowing how to calculate conditional probability.
You need to know the odds for the exacta, trifecta, superfecta, quinella, boxed bet, etc.
Maverick,
Thank you!
Can you give me some examples in trading specifically on how conditional probability applies (in a certain situation)
I can tell you why trading is better than horse racing.
When you bet that horse to win and it looks like he is going to crap out - there is no way to get your money back before the race ends.
At least if you think you picked a winning stock and it looks like a dud going into the final turn you SELL.
When you bet that horse to win and it looks like he is going to crap out - there is no way to get your money back before the race ends.
At least if you think you picked a winning stock and it looks like a dud going into the final turn you SELL.
Quote from etfarb:
Maverick,
Thank you!
Can you give me some examples in trading specifically on how conditional probability applies (in a certain situation)
Conditional probability is written as P(A|B). Which says what is the probability of A given that event B has happened.
What is the probability that the S&P 500 will be up Friday given that the jobs number disappoints?
Or you could look at correlation. If AAPL is .90 correlated to the nasdaq and the nasdaq is up 1% tommorow, how much will AAPL be up given that the nasdaq is up 1%.
Here is an article from seeking alpha that goes over some examples.
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/4...al-probability-and-the-shrinking-sample-space
Quote from oldtime:
when you go to the track, you are betting on a horse to win
when you buy a stock you are investing in anticipation it will increase in value
See the difference?
lol I see the difference but thats not what i;m referring to
Let says NQ closed at 2860...
Open ats 2858.... how can you derive odds in the opening on that
or
Lets says Nq closes at 2860, opens at 2870 and is at 2895 by 3 oclock, how would you trade it going into the close
see where i[m going with probabilities and trading