Can someone please explain - Is Bottom fisher...

I found a site with some good newbie education on level 2 and order routing. It also had a link to a strategy discussion which I posted on the NYSE Gap Up thread a few days ago. I have since "backtested" it (simply looked at stocks that gapped up over past few weeks and how they traded that day), and it seemed to be a pretty good play.


www.tradecourse.com/modules/snap_gap_momentum.htm

I think the veterans here will say its over simplified but that's what I like about it. My read is it is really just a play on a stock hitting an intraday resistance level, retracing (in this case retracing the gap) and then breaking through the resistance level later on, which becomes the trigger for the trade. Anyway it is easy to scan for and easy to execute which is what I need at this point in my trading career. Hope it helps Alex, hang in there, keep studying and good luck. :)
 
Hitman,

Hitman's advice speaks for itself. It should be printed out and included with every new account application, it's that good.

Having read (and re-read) your recent suggestions and recommendations to neo_hr I have to say I agree with AAA. Good job, very helpful, I hope he pays attention. And no matter what anyone else says, I'm convinced you've got rhythm. :)
 
neo,

Hitman and I have both encouraged you to papertrade. This is a difficult market in which good traders are having trouble. My advice would be to study the general market carefully and wait until you are sure the trend on the daily has turned up. You make money in the intermediate/long term by grabbing a stock and riding a big trend move. That will be hard to do if the market sucks, as most stocks follow the general market.
 
triple A:

the BF and the SS set-up may or may not be counter trend. Oz's work on these two set-ups is independent of trend.

In some cases they may be counter trend, in other cases trend following. In either case, i don't see these set-ups as being any more "tricky" than any other. The rules are very clearly stated in Oz's work, and he has shown these set-ups to have a positive expectancy.

Of course i could be wrong, and would deeply appreciate it if you would correct me with a detailed explanation of why. From your statement you obviously think these set-up ARE tricky. Why do you find them so, and which set-ups do you think are less tricky and why?

regards/greg
 
Great post Hitman!

I also believe Tony's success in the market is an exception. I had a great talk with him last night following my worst week in the market. He had some great words of comfort and wisdom from his own experience. He walked me through his worse losses, and he said that three phases follow major losses.

Denial - I am still a great trader; I made over a million dollars last week. This loss is not a big deal.

Anger - How could I do this? I should have known better.

Acceptance - I really did something dumb, and I know that I learned my lesson and will not make the same mistake in the future.

Right now, I am still in phase two. After my conversation with Tony, I realized that I must not trade until I complete the third phase.

It is amazing how someone my age can feel like a little kid getting caught with his hand in the cookie jar ...

I decided to read Tony's book again for inspiration. It really hit home this time, especially, the psych stuff. The lessons he learned from his mistakes were much closer to home, if you know what I mean.

According to his book, in 1986, he started with $8000 and made 180% in 4 weeks on a stock tip from his uncle. He did not start using margin until 1993. So I think you got it wrong in your post (if you have the book, read chapter one again). I just thought that pointing it out is important.

Neo,

I trade big sizes, so I couldn't imagine what it would be like to be in your shoes. But since you asked about the setups, I thought that I would let you know about the following:

An email from Terra Nova -MB

"Dear Valued Client,

.... edited

Because we think you will find this new service valuable, Terra Nova-MB is offering to pay our customers' subscription fee for the month of November. Also, if you sign up for the Oz Scanner this month, you will receive a free copy of Tony Oz's new book, How to Take Money from Wall Street: Learn to profit in Bull and Bear Markets (a $50 value), compliments of RealTick. <b>Tony Oz will be hosting special tutorial sessions on the construction and use of his scanners. We will contact participants via email with times and availability information.</b>

.... edited

Regards,

Terra Nova-MB"

Neo: According to Tony, these tutorials will be held using Webex and teleconference sometime in November. They will be free. This should be a good opportunity to see how he uses the scanner and ask questions. He is not sure if it will be open to anyone but Terra Nova customers, but if I were you, I would ask him for an invitation. He is one of the most giving people I have ever met, so I wouldn't doubt that if he could arrange for an invitation, he will certainly do so.

I found a great deal on the web for last minute vacation. I'm leaving to Cancun with Jennifer tomorrow morning. I need to get to phase three. In hindsight (which is always 20/20) it would have been a good idea to do it last Monday :)

Bill

PS, Neo I wasn't sure if you posted somewhere that you think your questions for Tony scared him off the boards. Anyhow, you didn't. Jodi and Tony have a time management thing going on. Computer time versus family time. So the woman (rightfully so) demands his time once he is done trading for the day. I don't think he wanted me to post that, but I actually respect that and don't see it degrading in any way.
 
I have a question. Have trades these shown a postive expectancy because the entry is better than 50/50 or because of the preset 3 to 1 target. In other words If I buy pull backs and look to set my target at 3 times greater than my loss will it do the same as bottom fisher.
 
Hey Sniper,

THX for the thoughts! Anyway, I wanted to ask you how could I contact Tony? Im guessing he aint reading his PMs on ET board and Im not that familiar with him like you guys that call him and stuff :)

Should I try with Tonyoz.com e mail or something?

Alex

P.S. Sniper, if you get to know about theese seminars, could you just forward the e mails to me (course, provided they're free) ? You can reach me via e-mail feature on ET.
 
gh1,

Regarding BF and SS being counter-trend, it depends on your time frame for a trend. On the daily chart, you are right, they don't have to be counter-trend but they well could be. On a 60 minute chart, most times I would say they would be countertrend. I was oversimplifying a bit but the fact is you are stepping in front of recent market momentum.
 
I agree, it's contratrend, but don't forget that contratrend pullbacks are often the most exaggerated and violent moves in all trading. You want to be where the action is, and this is it.
 
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