Can price predict it's own future?

Sekiyo said:
On a more serious note,

Price Action tells me if I should rather buy or sell and when to do it.
But it doesn’t tell me with accuracy where it’s going.

I’ve tried to pick tops and bottoms,
It worked sometimes but I kept blowing up.
Because I thought I wasn’t a slave to the tape.

Most of the time the price falls short,
Or it goes farther than expected.
In average it works but …
Averages don’t payoff

More of a tape reader,
Than a forecaster.

I don’t mind forecasting anymore,
It’s kind of a waste of time IMO
Better be an enslaved zen.

MMMMMMMh
More...

You've got it mostly correct.

No need to "forecast the future"... just react to what you see and cope with the future as it unfolds.
 
Laissez Faire said:
What do you trade on if you won’t use TA?

TA does not necessarily mean drawing lines on a chart. You may not even use charts.
More...

If you add everything to TA obviously you can say that I use it as well, but there it goes the fine line of what is TA and what is not. Many authors have debated on what has to be included and I understand it as a practice that is based on charts and indicators looking at past prices in order to predict the future.

What do I trade on?

- Wait for stops hunting
- Wait for anomalies essentially
- Pair major indexes in order to understand their correlation (you are going to include this inside TA :D, I know)
- Major news, if nothing is happening and there is a big move, then is just the big boys adding their coins to the machine, it should revert eventually

I am doing ok with these basic things, but I am open to learn the magic tricks behind TA. People keep telling me that is some kind of magic thing, but there are never any specifics.
 
Scataphagos said:
HOGWASH! Proper Price TA is NOT "a fine line"... it's actually 100% fact!!
More...

All right, let me get my hands on Price Action TA. I already did it in the past and those books were telling me all sort of nonsense based on price movements. Since you are so sure I must try it again. I am happy to be wrong. I will open a new thread soon. explaining my points there, let's see where I get.
 
@Drawdown Addict

I like the definition at Wikipedia:

In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for analysing and forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.[1]
More...

In my book, anyone who uses price as input for their analysis is using TA.

For my personal TA, I use a combination of statistics which is fairly original as I developed it myself (but it's still TA as I use price data) and charts (mostly levels and looking for failures / confirmation).

I'm not a big fan of classical TA I suppose, but I like to use everything that gives me a view of where the market's at and where it might be going. I don't really use set-ups except for the failure to breakout which is a really powerful reversal signal on ES at least. Happens all the time.
 
Drawdown Addict said:
All right, let me get my hands on Price Action TA. I already did it in the past and those books were telling me all sort of nonsense based on price movements. Since you are so sure I must try it again. I am happy to be wrong. I will open a new thread soon. explaining my points there, let's see where I get.
More...

Yeah, right... some of the books describe such things as "head and shoulder", "cup and handle", "butterflys", "Gartleys", etc... some noobs conclude "THAT" is TA. Well, it's not... only partly and the least important and least accurate/valuable part.

"Price TA" is all about "price only"... disregarding volume. Our objective as traders is to "get our money in tune with price"... nothing else matters.

Simple price patterns... SUPPORT... RESISTANCE... Where is it, what do you do about it, what should you do when S/R apparently holds and/or apparently fails?
 
Last edited:
Drawdown Addict said:
Exited all 10 contracts, $257 in total. I am fine with that, I am not a rich ass

Now that I am out, price go up!!! we want mikeriley to make his bucks
More...
How come so many 'profitable' traders here trade so small position?
Do they spend all theirs small profits as soon as they close a profitable position?
I mean, if you make money, at one point, your position will increase!
Seems that it's not the case as many trade a couple of micros at a time....
And the only reason trading micros over minis is the lack of AUM.

I don't know. Maybe it's just me...;)
 
Laissez Faire said:
What do you see right now for ES / SPX? Long, short or flat?
More...

Depends your timeframe also ...

Swing wise it would be dumb to long here
But the market already trapped longs.

upload_2023-4-19_20-8-7.png


I don't usually do this kind of analysis ...
Next move towards 412 :rolleyes:

Maybe 410 Low of Range

Got no Short signal yet.
Needs to close below 414 (currently)
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top