can price action predict market moves

[Master Pu]

Risk Management is not part of the Expectancy formula below. Lol, I can risk 0.5% of my trading capital per trade, per the formula below, does not mean I have a trading edge. I will simpler be a good risk manager trading without an proven edge and losing money eventually.

To calculate your trading expectancy, you need to know three things - your win percentage, your average win, and your average loss. The calculation is as follows:

Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) - (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)

In my simple opinion, risk management is pure bullshit. It is only 0.0005% of the journey trading to consistent profitable.

For some reason you consider edge to not form part of risk management, whereas I include all aspects of trading within risk management. So when you call risk management bullshit, to me this is pure nonsense.

 

[longandshort]

I'm a day trader but the ideas can be extrapolated to wider time frames. For a beginner, I would recommend doing nothing but observing price behavior for at least a month (few will do this). You can test setups based on your observations or take conventional ideas and test them by back and forward testing. You quantify MFE and MAE from setup entries and you want to see where the inflection points occur going forward. My group of retail traders will not cause such points on a market like the ES but institutions can and will. They do not all agree, all you can learn is tendencies which can give you a basis for an edge, not just on where to put stops but where to consider targets.

No one thread can teach someone to trade or precisely what work to do to be successful, just know that it will be likely more challenging than anticipated....and ignore the trolls, let them stew in their toxicity.

Yeah that’s not going to work. What’s strange about this post is that there are actual ways to see when institutional investors are entering a stock, lol. You can search for block trade prints and read 13-Fs.

 

[speedo]

Yeah that’s not going to work. What’s strange about this post is that there is an actual way to see when institutional investors are entering a stock, lol. You can search for block trade prints and read 13-Fs.

I don't trade stocks...do what works for you.

 

[longandshort]

I don't trade stocks...do what works for you.

If you’re trading e-minis then you really only have two price-related strategies: basis trading or momentum. I don’t know what you and your retail group does, but if you think you are scalping and you are not basis trading, then you are betting on a 6 spade as a high card preflop (random, not high conviction, generally not the best idea).

At the end of the day, trading is quite hard and competition is fierce.

 

[speedo]

If you’re trading e-minis then you really only have two price-related strategies: basis trading or momentum. I don’t know what you and your retail group does, but if you think you are scalping and you are not basis trading, then you are betting on a 6 spade as a high card preflop (random, not high conviction, generally not the best idea).

At the end of the day, trading is quite hard and competition is fierce.

Do tell.

 

[longandshort]

Do tell.

Stop telling people they can make money by drawing lines on a chart.

 

[speedo]

ET lol

 

[bone]

You're long on judgement and short on intelligence.

Why are you suggesting using a style of trading that you know, and admit, does not work. Personally, I find it unethical to suggest that people can make money in the markets using clearly outdated tech/theory and with limited knowledge.

 

[longandshort]

You're long on judgement and short on intelligence.

You have a funny way of agreeing with me.

 

[tiddlywinks]

Personally, I find it unethical to suggest that people can make money in the markets using clearly outdated tech/theory and with limited knowledge.

I still use Windows 7 pro and a pen and paper to jot down words and numbers during the trading session. I also use a paper "to-do" list daily.

Using Notepad does not add profitability, efficiency, or effectiveness to my world.