can price action predict market moves

[KCalhoun]

My 'Winning Chart Patterns ' VHS /DVD sold hundreds of units back 20 years ago. Chart patterns are important.

What's more important is trade management, scaling/position sizing. The most important thing is range. Trend is useful. But range is key. Knowing prior day's range or ATR and expanding vs narrowing daily range etc, OHLC, mean reversion areas, that's key.

My favorite swing trading pattern is a small candle followed by taller breakout candle in an uptrend on 90day daily candle chart.

 

[pinabetal]

Managing risk while important will only make you lose money at a slower rate. The most important thing is to make a profit. Consistently.



I'll give you two sample systems that are 100 % objective:

1) 10/20 EMA. Buy/sell on a cross.

2) Opening range breakout: Go long/short on a breakout of the opening range. We can define the OR as the 30-minute maximum/minimum.

While these systems won't consistently deliver good results there is no interpretation or subjectiveness. You have clearly defined rules which tells you (or better; an algorithm) what to do and it will be the same action always. Both in real time and back-testing and for different users.

Note: I didn't say that chart patterns don't work. I'll leave that for others who use them to decide. I just said that the two posts above the one I posted highlighted the perils and subjective nature of a chart based approach.

That's all.

And how you want to interpret that is up to you. LOL.

No different than a BO from a triangle or a BO from a range. No more objective than BO’s from these patterns or no difference than trading a flag PB that resumes the trend one tick or two ticks above the previous bar. You think a crossover of a MA is more concrete but it isn’t. Nor is a BO of an OR any more concrete or objective than taking an entry of a BO of a sideways range.

 

[notagain]

Chart patterns, Three Rising Valleys or the Big W

 

[Laissez Faire]

No different than a BO from a triangle or a BO from a range. No more objective than BO’s from these patterns or no difference than trading a flag PB that resumes the trend one tick or two ticks above the previous bar. You think a crossover of a MA is more concrete but it isn’t. Nor is a BO of an OR any more concrete or objective than taking an entry of a BO of a sideways range.

No need to be argumentative or defensive about your approach. If you don't see the very obvious difference between interpretation of a chart and a rule based system you're either very dense or just being stubborn on purpose.

 

[Master Pu]

If price action wasn't predictive then trend following wouldn't be possible. Counter this argument

 

[Master Pu]

Is today the day when Russell goes +4%?

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Lol, you are guys are super funny to me.

406 post debating about rather a style of trading has edge for a trader and............:

1. NOT ONE person post their broker account showing price action has edge for them.
2. NOT ONE person post their equity curve showing price action has edge for them.
3. NOT ONE person post their trade summary for Xs days showing price action has edge for them.
4. NOT ONE person post anything of someone they know showing price action has edge for them.

If you feel price action provides you Edge, prove it!! No need to talk. Post your account balance and equity curve.

Let me give you an example. Take about 2 minutes. I just copy and past my trades today.

You do the same. Post your trades and prove price action works for you. No need to debate and talk about theory.

If it makes money, it makes sense. I HAVE never in my life seen or have proof of any profitable discretionary price action trader. NEVER. EVER.

And I predict, I never will at least not on this forum.

 

[deaddog]

Lol, you are guys are super funny to me.

1. NOT ONE person post their broker account showing price action has edge for them.
2. NOT ONE person post their equity curve showing price action has edge for them.
3. NOT ONE person post their trade summary for Xs days showing price action has edge for them.
4. NOT ONE person post anything of some they know showing price action has edge for them.

Price Action has ZERO Edge because too much discretionary decision making and there no way any human can quantify it or even show proof.

How do I know this? Well check the last 407 post. ZERO proof.

Well it probably won't work for you.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Well it probably won't work for you.

If I was a NFL football player. I rather play for a coach that wins the most. That is Bill Belichick. I do not care less on the method he uses to wins. I just want to win and get super bowl ring.

The same applies to trading.

Why focus on price action, if nobody is winning with it, that I know of. I never see proof. Just talking and bullshitting.

 

[deaddog]

Why focus on price action, if nobody is winning with it, that I know of. I never see proof. Just talking and bullshitting.

If you have tried it and it didn't work for you then focus on why it didn't work.
Every trader is different. It's up to you to find something that works for you. It's not up to the rest of the world to prove that something you don't believe works.

Good luck in your search.