can price action predict market moves

[deaddog]

You're forgetting the common trait of traders - over leveraging due to trading shorter time frames. Risk is therefore much higher.

I can only control what I do.
The supposition that 95% of traders fail shouldn't figure into the calculation of what is risky.
Well i guess it has to if you are considering trading as a source of income.
I don't see it as a risk. I'm too overconfident. (Another risk)

 

[deaddog]

Riiiight, so in a bullmarket (+ about 80% of the time) overnight is going to work against you?
Ohhh deary me.

It's only a problem when it happens to you

 

[themickey]

Not holding overnight is like fearing goblins under the bed when the light is switched off.
Overnight risk is a myth because like a coin flip, the results are not stacked against you.
But as mentioned, if you are on the right side of the market - right side of the trend, holding works for you, not against.

 

[stockpredictor]

It is true that swing and position trading are generally considered superior for retail traders in trending environments. Overnight risk could just as well be called overnight reward. That said, one of the cases for shorter timeframe trading is that all swings begin as scalp trades. If that can happen frequently enough, it will become apparent it is statistically significant and thus the risk becomes reduced by taking those.

 

[deaddog]

Not holding overnight is like fearing goblins under the bed when the light is switched off.

Are you saying there is no risk at all?
When you are flat each night there is no risk. Zero!!
FOMO but that's another goblin under the bed.

 

[themickey]

Are you saying there is no risk at all?
When you are flat each night there is no risk. Zero!!
FOMO but that's another goblin under the bed.

Every trade carries risk - regardless! Even Buffett and the smartest brains know every trade has risk.
But holding overnight does not increase risk, that my friend is just an excuse day traders like to use to justify day trading.

 

[themickey]

Chop carries more risk and day traders suffer more from that.

 

[deaddog]

But holding overnight does not increase risk, that my friend is just an excuse day traders like to use to justify day trading.

If there is any risk of a black swan event causing the market to react and open opposite to your position. Then there is more risk than being flat at the end of the day.

There might not be a great risk and it is something you can live with. (I do).

I don't see where chop carries more risk. Markets are fractal. It's a matter of time frame. You have a system with a positive expectancy and take what the market gives you. If it's a trend following system, avoid the chop and wait for the trend. No one insists you have to trade every minute.

Just because a lot of inexperienced traders blow up accounts chasing instant riches day trading doesn't mean it's more risky than swing or position trading. The same traders would probably blow up any account.

I maintain the risk isn't the time frame but the trader.

 

[themickey]

If there is any risk of a black swan event causing the market to react and open opposite to your position. Then there is more risk than being flat at the end of the day.

There might not be a great risk and it is something you can live with. (I do).

I don't see where chop carries more risk. Markets are fractal. It's a matter of time frame. You have a system with a positive expectancy and take what the market gives you. If it's a trend following system, avoid the chop and wait for the trend. No one insists you have to trade every minute.

Just because a lot of inexperienced traders blow up accounts chasing instant riches day trading doesn't mean it's more risky than swing or position trading. The same traders would probably blow up any account.

I maintain the risk isn't the time frame but the trader.

Regarding black swan, it works both ways, just as much chance of white swan.
I hold at times up to 60 positions, numerous times there is an announcement and share price moves up hard, trying to catch that move as a day trader is impossible due to gap up on open or gap up midday.
Chop carries more risk, getting beat up on dummy moves, dummy volume, dummy volatility, slippage, brokerage.

If risk isnt about time frame, why the statement 'holding overnight carries risk'?

 

[deaddog]

If risk isnt about time frame, why the statement 'holding overnight carries risk'?

Risk is about when you are in the market.
If you day trade you are only in the market when the market is open.
At the end of the trading day you have no risk. Agreed you have no opportunity to benefit from a white swan but the objective is to control risk. Regardless of what happens overnight or over the weekend I know what my account balance will be at the start of the trading day.