can price action predict market moves

[longandshort]

Prolly because day trading is appealing to retail and Al preaches you can get rich this way studying bar by bar.

I just watched a clip of his...geez

Cheers. But, the signals were the only ones profitable; when I tried to high volume scalp on C2, the executions weren't what I expected and ended up in losses; should have been up 2X% on the month at least.

How would one go about proving the signal without spilling the sauce?

Run the historical test to prove some kind of premia or anomaly in the first place.

so distill your chart signal into key blocks. Example:
Local high/(low) (last 20 bars)
If next 3 bars are positive/(negative) then buy/(sell)
Exit after 5 bars

Run this for as big of a time series you can get and you should be able to backtest the result. That is proof that a return exists in the trade. Your live trading is proof of execution. Make sense?

 

[stockpredictor]

I just watched a clip of his...geez


Run the historical test to prove some kind of premia or anomaly in the first place.

so distill your chart signal into key blocks. Example:
Local high/(low) (last 20 bars)
If next 3 bars are positive/(negative) then buy/(sell)
Exit after 5 bars

Run this for as big of a time series you can get and you should be able to backtest the result. That is proof that a return exists in the trade. Your live trading is proof of execution. Make sense?

I see. I'll have to build up the account and work with a computer guy to get to that point.

 

[themickey]

......Run the historical test to prove some kind of premia or anomaly in the first place.

so distill your chart signal into key blocks. Example:
Local high/(low) (last 20 bars)
If next 3 bars are positive/(negative) then buy/(sell)
Exit after 5 bars
Run this for as big of a time series you can get and you should be able to backtest the result. That is proof that a return exists in the trade. Your live trading is proof of execution. Make sense?

That formula will produce random results.
It's similar to an indicator, just because it's a formula, that doesn't in itself create trading logic.
The world / trading / history doesn't operate off a repetitive formula

 

[geth03]

I just watched a clip of his...geez


Run the historical test to prove some kind of premia or anomaly in the first place.

so distill your chart signal into key blocks. Example:
Local high/(low) (last 20 bars)
If next 3 bars are positive/(negative) then buy/(sell)
Exit after 5 bars

Run this for as big of a time series you can get and you should be able to backtest the result. That is proof that a return exists in the trade. Your live trading is proof of execution. Make sense?

there is a review on https://www.tradingschools.org/reviews/al-brooks-trading/
about Al Brooks. he is interpreting every bar on a 5 min chart in relations to previous bars and chart patterns these form on an intraday basis.
he wrote a few books on that matter:
https://www.amazon.de/Al-Brooks/e/B001JSEI4Q?ref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share

this guy can tell you how you need to trade trends, reversal and trading ranges.
he wrote one book for every environment, at least 500 pages long for each!!!

this is the stuff he is talking about in his tradingroom:

"Indecision bars, indecision bars, with a possible micro bubble climax definitely looking to buy support. But sellers may overwhelm swing, so looking to sell at resistence trigger”

“Double bottom probably buyers on doji candle looking for long entry and short entry on resistence failure short entry for quick profit, be aggressive and careful with either position”

“Final flag, final flag, definitely final flag probably entering trading range with close support at possible entry point for aggresive buyers and definite exit point on multi-point sell position”

“Failure reversal bull flag with sellers climax possible sell, but looking to buy on minor pullback of micro bubble. Indecision bars signalling continuation of reversal points.”

i don't fucking know what the guy is talking about, i think he even does not know what he is talking about. "doji, last flag bull bear reversal pattern with possible breakout and one leg pull back to another support area, looking to buy on second indecision bar with strong momentum. but sellers can overwhelm, so no reason to be aggressive, careful with positioning." what the fuck is this?
imagine working at Goldman and everybody is talking that way.
how can anybody be serious with this guy? there is a cult around this guy.
i don't get it.

 

[themickey]

.....i don't fucking know what the guy is talking about, i think he even does not know what he is talking about....

If you use words which can be interpreted numerous ways (think Bible or Trump) then you will have a cult following.

 

[Laissez Faire]

For pure chart reading - one signal I find valuable is the false breakout. This can be both macro and micro. Generally, it does not require interpretation (this is where you need to define some rigid rules for how to use this).

Combined with other filters this can usually give good entries.

I see a lot of discussion about why on this thread which I don't think generally matters. But if one were to explain the why of a FBO it makes perfect sense as trapped traders will need to liquidate their positions adding fuel to the fire in the opposite direction of the attempted breakout.

This is for ES. Other instruments have other characteristics and the FBO may be less reliable.

EDIT: I don't use a naked chart, so I had to deliberately remove some of the indicators I use.

 

[longandshort]

That formula will produce random results.
It's similar to an indicator, just because it's a formula, that doesn't in itself create trading logic.
The world / trading / history doesn't operate off a repetitive formula

That’s ultimately my point. And it’s why there’s ultimately no signal in a chart pattern.

 

[stockpredictor]

For pure chart reading - one signal I find valuable is the false breakout. This can be both macro and micro. Generally, it does not require interpretation (this is where you need to define some rigid rules for how to use this).

Combined with other filters this can usually give good entries.

I see a lot of discussion about why on this thread which I don't think generally matters. But if one were to explain the why of a FBO it makes perfect sense as trapped traders will need to liquidate their positions adding fuel to the fire in the opposite direction of the attempted breakout.

This is for ES. Other instruments have other characteristics and the FBO may be less reliable.

View attachment 256022

EDIT: I don't use a naked chart, so I had to deliberately remove some of the indicators I use.

Stacked levels, simultaneous hits of levels on correlated vehicles; those two methods are strong.

 

[stockpredictor]

And as expected, a gap above the TSLA level produced a retest the next day.

 

[easymon1]

For pure chart reading - one signal I find valuable is the false breakout. This can be both macro and micro. Generally, it does not require interpretation (this is where you need to define some rigid rules for how to use this).

https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/money-and-the-songs-about-it.344652/