can price action predict market moves

[geth03]

Im surprised this conversation is even being had by so called "experts"

Its very quite simple. Charts produce patterns that have a probabilistic edge. What big boys used them? Well, Renaissance Technologies - you know the most successful HF ever.

How come most other big HFs dont use them? Because the strats for a 100mil - 1bil + portfolio are going to be different than your typical trader that doesnt even have a 100k trading portfolio.

One is making markets, the other is following the market therefore it requires different approaches. Nothing is 100% when using charts and it seems the most people who complain about charts are wanting a magic pill to make it 100%.

charts are just a representation of market moves, a way of organizing price-time-volume data. those create random patterns, that are insignificant for future price moves and research shows over and over again that chart patterns are unreliable.

chart patterns have many many nuances to them. when somebody draws a head and shoulder pattern, the other guy will see an Elliott Wave or flag or fib retracement.
regardless of what kind of pattern your schizophrenic brain will "see", the outcome of future price move will be independent of the pattern that occured visually, randonmly and "seen" by your schizophrenic brain.

 

[IamTheCasino]

charts are just a representation of market moves, a way of organizing price-time-volume data. those create random patterns, that are insignificant for future price moves and research shows over and over again that chart patterns are unreliable.

chart patterns have many many nuances to them. when somebody draws a head and shoulder pattern, the other guy will see an Elliott Wave or flag or fib retracement.
regardless of what kind of pattern your schizophrenic brain will "see", the outcome of future price move will be independent of the pattern that occured visually, randonmly and "seen" by your schizophrenic brain.

Wrong. while the underlying represents price, the fact a market is moving in a certain direction is based on human behavior, which is why patterns exist. Computers are still programmed by humans - thus human behavior element.

Until humans evolve into another species markets will always reflect the same human behavior.

Believe or dont, there are plenty of people making money off of charts without the need to overcomplicate shit and appear smarter than they are, it makes no difference to me if you are making money or end up in a bread line.

Also, often times "research" isnt asking the right questions, dont give a fuck what kind of authority they may have - it isnt the end all be all.


Whats funny is that you are a failed trader multiple times over and sit here like you know fuck all just because chart reading/trading didnt work for you. Lmfao, what a clown. What a pointless conversation this thread has turned into engaging in some fuckin failure who acts like a know it all but cant make a 1 lot on a consistent basis.

 

[Laissez Faire]

...those create random patterns, that are insignificant for future price moves and research shows over and over again that chart patterns are unreliable.

1. Can you link that research?

2. Classical chart patterns (which I don’t generally use) is just one subset of chart analysis (which there are as many as there are chart settings).

3. There are plenty of academics who claims the market to be random, yet it’s obvious that profitable market participants have found them to be otherwise. Is it possible that markets (and charts) only seems random to the uninformed, but actually is not?

Is it possible that markets are random some of the time, but not all the time?

4. Is skill/experience/talent something to consider?

Finally, it’s my firm belief that anything of true value would not be taught in public or sold, but traded for private personal gain. That’s why the answers to the questions that matters will never be freely or readily available. And that’s where you’re currently at.

 

[geth03]

Wrong. while the underlying represents price, the fact a market is moving in a certain direction is based on human behavior, which is why patterns exist. Computers are still programmed by humans - thus human behavior element.

Until humans evolve into another species markets will always reflect the same human behavior.

Believe or dont, there are plenty of people making money off of charts without the need to overcomplicate shit and appear smarter than they are, it makes no difference to me if you are making money or end up in a bread line.

Also, often times "research" isnt asking the right questions, dont give a fuck what kind of authority they may have - it isnt the end all be all.

1.those guys that saw patterns in charts namely Gann & Elliott died fucking poor.

2. why don't i see job offerings from banks that are looking for Technical Analysts?

3. Technical Analysis is used by the sell-side. your broker will teach you TA because he wants you to make money, right? every charting software vendor will teach you at least 10 strategies based on 20 indicators, that are profitable, but you are the one that gets those strategies, because he wants you to make money, right?

4. price is made through human interaction in some sort, algos are just executing the ideas of the programmers, thats true. what is not true is, that you will never ever know what kind of strategy one algo used, that was different in the good old pit trading days, where you knew the big players and bank brokers.
lets take an algo that is programmed to execute orders, buy 1000 lots of ES in 2 days and beat the VWAP or TWAP. one algo execution firm gets this task from a bank, lets say.
for this algo, the fucking flag pattern or support/resistance line is irrelevant.

 

[DiceAreCast]

Who are those plenty people you speak thereof?

Wrong. while the underlying represents price, the fact a market is moving in a certain direction is based on human behavior, which is why patterns exist. Computers are still programmed by humans - thus human behavior element.

Until humans evolve into another species markets will always reflect the same human behavior.

Believe or dont, there are plenty of people making money off of charts without the need to overcomplicate shit and appear smarter than they are, it makes no difference to me if you are making money or end up in a bread line.

Also, often times "research" isnt asking the right questions, dont give a fuck what kind of authority they may have - it isnt the end all be all.


Whats funny is that you are a failed trader multiple times over and sit here like you know fuck all just because chart reading/trading didnt work for you. Lmfao, what a clown. What a pointless conversation this thread has turned into engaging in some fuckin failure who acts like a know it all but cant make a 1 lot on a consistent basis.

 

[Master Pu]

To each his own I guess. I just notice how those guys could still not explain why nobody in the industry uses charts much. The mates here must have some special, secret edge nobody else ever came across.

They may not use charts, but their actions leave 'footprints' on charts, show me an alternative trading system that works like clockwork and I'll eat my right shoe

 

[IamTheCasino]

1.those guys that saw patterns in charts namely Gann & Elliott died fucking poor.

2. why don't i see job offerings from banks that are looking for Technical Analysts?

3. Technical Analysis is used by the sell-side. your broker will teach you TA because he wants you to make money, right? every charting software vendor will teach you at least 10 strategies based on 20 indicators, that are profitable, but you are the one that gets those strategies, because he wants you to make money, right?

4. price is made through human interaction in some sort, algos are just executing the ideas of the programmers, thats true. what is not true is, that you will never ever know what kind of strategy one algo used, that was different in the good old pit trading days, where you knew the big players and bank brokers.
lets take an algo that is programmed to execute orders, buy 1000 lots of ES in 2 days and beat the VWAP or TWAP. one algo execution firm gets this task from a bank, lets say.
for this algo, the fucking flag pattern or support/resistance line is irrelevant.

1. who the fuck is talking about them or that they are the only people to deal with charts?

2. already addressed this, learn to fucking read

3. who says im (or anyone) is using what some useless broker is recommending? that has nothing to do with the pattern and everything to do with how it is used.

4. you are talking about 1 algo. There are hundreds if not thousands you will trade against. Your statements are fucking pointless at this point.

I made 17 pts today trading ES off of chart patterns........i must be getting lucky to have done this on a consistent basis - i have posted a different pic from a different day making the same amount.

You are fuckin clueless

 

[DiceAreCast]

So, let me get this straight, you accuse someone as being a loser whom you know nothing whatsoever about but pretend to have proof thereof, yet the one single thing you claim to know about, profitable chart trading, you have zero proof to show for? That is amusing.

Wrong. while the underlying represents price, the fact a market is moving in a certain direction is based on human behavior, which is why patterns exist. Computers are still programmed by humans - thus human behavior element.

Until humans evolve into another species markets will always reflect the same human behavior.

Believe or dont, there are plenty of people making money off of charts without the need to overcomplicate shit and appear smarter than they are, it makes no difference to me if you are making money or end up in a bread line.

Also, often times "research" isnt asking the right questions, dont give a fuck what kind of authority they may have - it isnt the end all be all.


Whats funny is that you are a failed trader multiple times over and sit here like you know fuck all just because chart reading/trading didnt work for you. Lmfao, what a clown. What a pointless conversation this thread has turned into engaging in some fuckin failure who acts like a know it all but cant make a 1 lot on a consistent basis.

 

[IamTheCasino]

Who are those plenty people you speak thereof?

What a pointless question. As if you knowing who these people are will make any difference on what i said.

 

[DiceAreCast]

So chart trading comes close to being clockwork, or why otherwise would you summon in such poor analogy?

They may not use charts, but their actions leave 'footprints' on charts, show me an alternative trading system that works like clockwork and I'll eat my right shoe