wiesman02, I love it!!!
can price action predict market moves
- Thread starter geth03
- Start date
Well, my interpretation of that Simons quote is nothing other than how the team saw improved results going from a coarse to a finer detail in their dataset (half hour segments and finally 5-minute segments). And that should hardly be a surprise. These days - I'm sure their datasets are even finer. I don't see anything indicating that they're looking at visual chart patterns.
The precise research they're citing in that quote clearly shows that their findings are not done based on interpretation of charts.
Tabular data allows for precise comparison, analysis and objectivity. You simply can't do that on charts, unless you're some kind savant. And probably not even then.
The precise research they're citing in that quote clearly shows that their findings are not done based on interpretation of charts.
Tabular data allows for precise comparison, analysis and objectivity. You simply can't do that on charts, unless you're some kind savant. And probably not even then.
if you have a gameplan with statistical evidence, then yeah, you might have found an edge, which was based on historical data.
if you can really tell, that if x happens y will follow z% amount of time and you have a money management to back it to be proficient, well done.
one crucial point which would also interest me is, how much heat you need to take for one trade to workout, i.e. maximum adverse excursion. or for trades that didn't workout, maximum favourable excursion, i.e. that trade didn't work out but how much did it went in my favour before turning against me.
i, personally, would not be able to pull the trigger when i knew, based from backtesting this idea, that the majority of time price went against me and turned before stopping me out by a couple of ticks. too much heat for my psychology to handle that, but that is personal. you might be different.
on the other side, if you see, from your backtest data, that price moved in your favour before turning and stopping you out, i would further dig down to see if advanced money management could turn it to be profitable.
maybe trading multiple lots, taking one lot off before initial TP point and then moving the other lot to breakeven and in case price moves further letting one lot to be a runner.
but those are fine tuning your findings. then it comes to trading the hard right edge of the chart. thats the difficult part, i guess.
charts are visualizations of data. The visualization itself has zero bearing on the future whatsoever. Sorry that I am so adamant on terminology, but I think there is actually a huge difference between interpreting historical data points and reading tealeaves in the chart mug. The entire construct of actually compressing historical data into bars is dangerous (not entirely futile) as one becomes tempted to attach any meaning to the exact bar formation and shape such as the relationship between the bar close to the highs and lows. The market attaches close to zero importance to that. And that is the danger of charts because it misleads many to believe those visual patterns have meaning when the actual meaning lies in completely different data patterns that are not highlighted on bar or candlestick or renko charts.
Of course they are not. But our chart evangelists cannot accept any facts that contradict or potentially even shatter their world. They still have nowhere explained why banks and buy-side first and hedge funds invest billions of dollars in expensive high-tech infrastructure and top quant and research talent when they can as well just train a few morons to glance at charts all day. They can't because it makes zero sense, which raises the question of why doing something that those who are the most successful in the field never do? Why not imitating them as best as can be done with given resources?
I prefer to stay out of any heated arguments and I don't see any purpose in bickering around, but I do like to set the facts straight when I see something I disagree with. As I myself use a quantitative model for my forecasting I simply can't agree when people compare that with charting as it's really not the same.
There's multiple ways to make money in the markets. I think it's perfectly possible to make money trading off charts alone. And there's ample evidence of players doing so. Maybe not on ET, though. I wouldn't know.
Banks and hedge funds operate within a different market segment than retail traders, so it's not really comparative.
Hello geth03,
Question:
If I show you a strategy with an expectancy greater than 0.00 and drawdown of $5000 for XX,XXX prior historical trades and made $50K this past year on NQ futures chart, would you trade it.
Please respond with only Yes or No.
%%
One of the few science predictions that hit 100% accuracy. The weather man,looks like he or she reads your sunrise /sunset time/prediction book??
,
no one will know what the market will do. all you can do is place your "educate" bets based on your signal, strategy, and your criteria for entering and exiting etc. only you should know if you have an edge or not based on your trades from the past. remember you must have at least 10,000 hours of screen times and at least one year worth of data of live trading. or you could have learn this from a successful mentor or someone you trust.