can price action predict market moves

[DiceAreCast]

I knew you were bullshitting.

The only fool here is you who honestly believes professionals use charts to make any sort of predictions. Ridiculous. You obviously never worked in this industry.

I posted the passage several times in the past on ET from The Man Who Solved the Markets which is the story of Simons and his funds. Read the book or look the post up, I am done with fools.

 

[wiesman02]

if price breaks out out of that triangle on large volume, you will enter in direction of the breakout.
if breakout is in trend direction, that will add confidence to pull the trigger.
if price makes a fake out, you will of course fade the initial breakout attempt.
put your stop behind one end of the triangle and aim for a 2R trade, if you trade multiple contracts, leave one out for a potential runner and move your SL to breakeven to minimize exposure.


bla bla bla bla............

The problem is OP is using retail/mainstream ways of looking at PA. The stuff I use isn’t mentioned in any books. That’s bc I was taught years ago to break down price bar by bar and figure out what it’s saying with my own words and thoughts about market dynamics. If you’re reading a book about it, you’re doing it wrong.

I sat down with a decade of ES charts and spent thousands of hours studying raw charts. Then I put my own filters on. Then slowly tested ideas.
U stare at ES long enough, things just repeat. It’s not obvious to the untrained eye and I’ll never be able to convince you.

but I’ll tell you what. My wife believes it works bc she sees the nice 5 figure wire transfers into my checking every month

 

[volpri]

They fail because they don't have an edge. Simple as that. And the reason is this:

Historical prices very seldomly have predictive power. Those who are long term consistent very carefully pick their battles and just as in poker push when the odds are in their favor. That happens very rarely. There are many other trading approaches but I am only focusing right here on trading on the basis of past prices. The mistake most retail traders make is that they overtrade and overleverage. Most of the time they trade against random price moves. Of course every price move can be explained in hindsight. But in the moment it is not known to traders most of the time, at least on the basis of past prices. If traders picked high probability patterns more carefully they would be much more profitable, at least would lose a lot less money. Whether you call those people gamblers or anything else is irrelevant. Relevant is that most of the time there is no edge in predicting the future based off past prices. To identify the few times there is an edge is a true art and takes years to master. Most retail traders have not mastered that which is why they keep losing money.

A small but significant compromise! Bravo!

 

[volpri]

if price breaks out out of that triangle on large volume, you will enter in direction of the breakout.
if breakout is in trend direction, that will add confidence to pull the trigger.
if price makes a fake out, you will of course fade the initial breakout attempt.
put your stop behind one end of the triangle and aim for a 2R trade, if you trade multiple contracts, leave one out for a potential runner and move your SL to breakeven to minimize exposure.


bla bla bla bla............

Jingle jingle jingle LOL

 

[speedo]

I knew you were bullshitting.

The only fool here is you who honestly believes professionals use charts to make any sort of predictions. Ridiculous. You obviously never worked in this industry.

I knew you'd be too lazy to look it up...here ya go sparky

Simons wondered if there might be a better way to parse their data
trove. Perhaps breaking the day up into finer segments might enable the
team to dissect intraday pricing information and unearth new, undetected
patterns. Laufer began splitting the day in half, then into quarters,
eventually deciding five-minute bars were the ideal way to carve things up.
Crucially, Straus now had access to improved computer-processing power,
making it easier for Laufer to compare small slices of historic data. Did the
188th five-minute bar in the cocoa-futures market regularly fall on days
investors got nervous, while bar 199 usually rebounded? Perhaps bar 50 in
the gold market saw strong buying on days investors worried about inflation
but bar 63 often showed weakness?
Laufer’s five-minute bars gave the team the ability to identify new
trends, oddities, and other phenomena, or, in their parlance, nonrandom
trading effects. Straus and others conducted tests to ensure they hadn’t
mined so deeply into their data that they had arrived at bogus trading
strategies, but many of the new signals seemed to hold up.

 

[DiceAreCast]

That's my stance and I think most profitable market practitioners fully agree with this assessment. No compromise needed. I can fully accept that you or others arrive at different conclusions. The market needs diverse thoughts. Though, not everyone can go home profitable.

A small but significant compromise! Bravo!

 

[DiceAreCast]

Lol, that does not mean they traded off charts. On all temporal data a researcher must dissect by timespan whenever one is windowing time series based datasets. You proved exactly nothing that is relevant to this discussion, the funny thing is you don't even know it.

Edit: Where did Jim Simons every shared chart trading with Gregory Zuckerman ever? You are citing from a book written by a journalist. I told you that there is zero indication by anyone from RT that anyone there ever traded based off charts.

I knew you'd be too lazy to look it up...here ya go sparky

Simons wondered if there might be a better way to parse their data
trove. Perhaps breaking the day up into finer segments might enable the
team to dissect intraday pricing information and unearth new, undetected
patterns. Laufer began splitting the day in half, then into quarters,
eventually deciding five-minute bars were the ideal way to carve things up.
Crucially, Straus now had access to improved computer-processing power,
making it easier for Laufer to compare small slices of historic data. Did the
188th five-minute bar in the cocoa-futures market regularly fall on days
investors got nervous, while bar 199 usually rebounded? Perhaps bar 50 in
the gold market saw strong buying on days investors worried about inflation
but bar 63 often showed weakness?
Laufer’s five-minute bars gave the team the ability to identify new
trends, oddities, and other phenomena, or, in their parlance, nonrandom
trading effects. Straus and others conducted tests to ensure they hadn’t
mined so deeply into their data that they had arrived at bogus trading
strategies, but many of the new signals seemed to hold up.

 

[volpri]

Yes a very few times. Can you explain why professional traders rarely make predictions based on charts? Why does hft trade off data and not charts? Why portfolio managers don't make investment decisions based off charts? Why most hf pms don't trade off charts? Is there a logical explanation? Because it completely contradicts what you stated.

Charts ARE data. Entirely composed of data. Points of data combined produces charts. One can trade off individual data points in relation to other data points. Or one can trade off graphical representations of combined data points. Namely charts. Do you not know that grasshopper? You are not yet ready little grasshopper.

 

[speedo]

Charts ARE data. Entirely composed of data. Points of data combined produces charts. Do you not know that grasshopper? You are not yet ready little grasshopper.

He is too stupid to understand that data is data and patterns are patterns whether represented on a chart or a spreadsheet or a data base.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

if price breaks out out of that triangle on large volume, you will enter in direction of the breakout.
if breakout is in trend direction, that will add confidence to pull the trigger.
if price makes a fake out, you will of course fade the initial breakout attempt.
put your stop behind one end of the triangle and aim for a 2R trade, if you trade multiple contracts, leave one out for a potential runner and move your SL to breakeven to minimize exposure.


bla bla bla bla............

And all that matters is what after this trade, is what??

If you repeat what you stated for every triangle breakout scenario on "large volume" for the next or past XXX to X,XXX trades is the expectancy greater than 0.00 and acceptable drawdown while obtaining expectancy greater than 0.00.

If expectancy greater than 0.00, You Have EDGE.------> Make Money
If expectancy less than 0.00, You Have NO EDGE. go back and try again.

Let me know if you disagree or agree with this logical statement.