can price action predict market moves
- Thread starter geth03
- Start date
Unfortunately, for you the answer is YES IT DOES. Because of a thing called market inertia. The market tends to keep doing what it is doing until it doesn’t. It doesn’t matter that one knows, or that one does not know, the name of the “pusher” but you can reasonably bet it ain’t you or me. LOL Every heard of the crash flash? Why did it happen? Because someone (“we will call that someone a biggie.”) pushes the sell button. But Mr Biggies finger gets glued to the sell button...other size biggies get the same problem. They are superglued to the sell button. Other biggies “see” patterns emerge from all this superglue mess..things like a strong.... a very strong BO with NO pullbacks. Things like a very tight bear channel. They panic because they are long. Their algos are flashing red alert. Sirens are going off every where. So they join the inertia and sell producing even more inertia. More sirens..screaming...etc By then the little fish (that is you and your cohorts) are getting gobbled by the inertia created by Mr biggie and the other subsequent biggies that have joined him. So all the little fish are scrambling defcon 5. But the other biggies are at defcon1. The pattern emerges the tight channel lengthens. It is one bear bar after the other. Gaps. Bear bar followed by even bigger bear bars. A nuke hits the little fishes and they are vaporized. Except for one little fish who swam with the inertia. Who was that little fish? Probably volpri.... he likes to swim with the inertia. He has inertia antenas out. Other little fish don’t believe in inertia. It doesn’t matter if they do or don’t believe in inertia, it still exist. Its existence has nothing to do with their beliefs. Since they don't believe in inertia, they thus build no antenas to alert them to inertia, and they have no pattern detectors measuring the strength of inertia. But it really doesn’t matter as they have been vaporized and are in trading hell anyway.
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hi SimpleMeLike,
i doesn't bother me if you are profitable or not. i appreciate and respect every opinion, that is based on sound logic.
i did not want to comment your comments for my recent post, so i will explain briefly what i think of your thoughts.
1. at the end of the day, we respect guys that make money in the markets, right? we do not look at maximum adverse excursion, which shows how much the position went against that trader. if he makes money, then fuck it, he needs to be good.
2. if one trading system performs better in one environment, it favours that environment. for example:
if we are in a bull market the MA crossover will perform better, that is a basic example. in a bull market a MACD diverging that predicts an end of the trend will inevitably fail. it doesnt fucking matter what price history was, or what MACD tells me at that point of time.
3. i don't care what Jim Simons says. many people with money say different things, their success is not an indication for what is possible for the rest 99% of the people. why did Black Scholes guys fucked it up so hard, but received the Nobel prize for options pricing?
4. you and me will never certainly know what kind of strategy those HFT guys use. but we know certainly that they have much more capital, knowledge and phd's on their side. and also they have literally plugged in their computers and algos right to the exchange machine! but more than 50 % of orders executed at the CME come from algos/automated trading systems! so you basically are fighting against those fuckers for money! thats for sure!
5. i don't think i will be able to disproof those course sellers. you know why? they will tell me in hindsight(!!!) that i misread the market! LOL
6. right point at the end of your comment! every person is responsible for his action! if somebody puts the money where his mouth is thats 1000 times better than selling courses.
Then let's be more specific. Making predictions from chart visualizations of past pricing data is completely subjective and sometimes works, sometimes does not. Not in the toolbox of any serious trader that has generated profits for years if not decades. Or have you seen a single serious research study that contradicts that? Or have you seen any professional trader who trades off candle stick charts or renko or bars or whatever there is? I think you know better.
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Yes the data at times has BUT NOT FUCKING CHARTS. GOODNESS. Saying a doji or any other chart pattern has predictive power is as ridiculous as saying that a black cat crossing my path in the morning brings bad luck.
Because that's what snowflakes do, they form certain patterns as function of humidity, wind, snowfall, temperature, locality. Sometimes you can see repeating patterns sometimes not. The distribution is almost random. Note that I specifically speak of chart patterns not historical prices per se.
Or explain how chart pattern reading works to Dalio, Simons, Buffet, and all the others. Apparently they invested all those hundreds of millions in infrastructure and top talent for nothing when they could have just hired 100 speedos to sit like chart monkeys in front of a screen and read doji patterns. Can we now stop joking and stop being pathetic?
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Yep and as a matter of fact 95% or more retail traders lose money precisely because of their approach. How is that for facts?
