can price action predict market moves

Even in jail one has free will. Take the opportunity to exercise when they offer it to you for an hour or sit in your cell and look at the walls.
So yeah we all have free will within the constraints of our universe.
The next question is; "how big is our universe?"
 
themickey said:
Even in jail one has free will. Take the opportunity to exercise when they offer it to you for an hour or sit in your cell and look at the walls.
So yeah we all have free will within the constraints of our universe.
The next question is; "how big is our universe?"
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Ever expanding at the speed of light I hear.
 
volpri said:
Why do you think flags...pennants...wedges...channels...PB’s...Breakouts....triangles....and such form on charts? Are they there? If so, why?
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it doesn't matter if certain patterns emerge from price moves.
some people will see pictures/patterns by looking to the clouds in the sky.
there are tons of studies where scientist show traders various charts and those traders can not distinguis between the real chart and fake chart.
you can see patterns whereever you look if you want, the human brain will try to see pattern in the chaos.

the point i wanted to adress is: do those patterns (flags, channels, head and shoulder, fibonaccis etc.) have predictive power, i.e. better than a coin flip or not.
if we are in a strong bull market, does a fucking flag matter? if we are in a sideways market, does a certain pattern matter?
 
speedo said:
Volpri, you may as well be trying to explain quantum mechanics to a cat.
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look, TA/PA is subjective not objective. you can give 100 technical analysts the same 1 chart, and all fuckers will draw 100 different things on this 1 chart. after new information is available on the hard right edge, most of them will lose money.
some make money, and then those that lost money will analyze the chart of the guys who made money just by luck. after some new infomation is available, every TAnalyst will adjust the chart for new moves, draw a new trend line for example.
if one has to redraw his trend line, or support/resistance level, that means, that it didn't have any predictable ability in the first place, so why adjusting it again from past information?

"quantum mechanics to cats" my ass xD
 
geth03 said:
it doesn't matter if certain patterns emerge from price moves.
some people will see pictures/patterns by looking to the clouds in the sky.
there are tons of studies where scientist show traders various charts and those traders can not distinguis between the real chart and fake chart.
you can see patterns whereever you look if you want, the human brain will try to see pattern in the chaos.

the point i wanted to adress is: do those patterns (flags, channels, head and shoulder, fibonaccis etc.) have predictive power, i.e. better than a coin flip or not.
if we are in a strong bull market, does a fucking flag matter? if we are in a sideways market, does a certain pattern matter?
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How do you know you are in a strong bull market or a sideways market?
 
volpri said:
How do you know you are in a strong bull market or a sideways market?
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once again, the main question is: does TA/PA have any predictable power?
you may think that price history shows bull/bear/sideways markets, which is true, because in a bull market price rises, in a bear market price falls and in a sideways market price consolidates. price data is just what it is, it is price history. it is what was. in a bull market you will be able to draw a trend line, by connecting certain higher lows or even higher highs of price swings. but once price breaks the higher low trend line, the TAnalyst will just redraw another line, or adjust the previous one. does this trend line have any predictable power? will price hold this line when it is reached? does it matter in a bull market if price penetrates this line?
does it matter if price forms a flag within a trend channel that breaks the higher low and then continues moving higher again?
 
geth03 said:
once again, the main question is: does TA/PA have any predictable power?
you may think that price history shows bull/bear/sideways markets, which is true, because in a bull market price rises, in a bear market price falls and in a sideways market price consolidates. price data is just what it is, it is price history. it is what was. in a bull market you will be able to draw a trend line, by connecting certain higher lows or even higher highs of price swings. but once price breaks the higher low trend line, the TAnalyst will just redraw another line, or adjust the previous one. does this trend line have any predictable power? will price hold this line when it is reached? does it matter in a bull market if price penetrates this line?
does it matter if price forms a flag within a trend channel that breaks the higher low and then continues moving higher again?
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dude, quit arguing. Either use it to make money or don't use it and make money another way. many of us having been trading for a long time. I have no interest in convincing you that price action works. It works for me, and thats all that matters.
 
wiesman02 said:
dude, quit arguing. Either use it to make money or don't use it and make money another way. many of us having been trading for a long time. I have no interest in convincing you that price action works. It works for me, and thats all that matters.
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i am happy for you that you make money with TA/PA.
if you think extrapolation of historical data in some sort leads to decisions that longterm can generate income for you, fine.
i am not arguing about anything. fact is, technical analysis is used mainly by the retail crowd because they don't know better. i never ever saw reports from major banks showing fucking patterns on charts. i saw many research papers that show how unreliable technical analysis is though. there is no point in arguing about that point.
 
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