can price action predict market moves

SimpleMeLike said:
Good Morning Laissez Faire,

You asked me a good question, and I hope I respond with a good logical unbiased my own personal experience response.
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Thank you for your answer. You answered very well.

I seem to recall you as a Brooks proponent?
I purchased the course and studied it one full time. "I" , let me repeat again, "I", am unable to find/validate edge(s) from my study of Al Brooks course, yet. The reason of for not being able to find edge could be due to my effort, not enough time invested in testing, lack of understanding, not enough backtesting/forward testing, or what ever reason.
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Right.

This is also relevant for the thread topic. The OP seems to dismiss TA/PA, yet he does not seem to have invested any serious work in trying to understand it either. It takes time. A lot of it. And even a good system/methodology may have additional challenges when trying to implement it in real time (think fast entries/exits, emotions, $$$ at risk, etc.).

Did you change your mind?
No, I did not change my mind on Al teaching. For $350 spent on the course, I learned alot. Now, I just need to put the methods in test mode to see if the trading ideas have edge. I decided to use my programming skills to perform some simulations or back testing practice to seek edge in the ideas learned. Then and only then can I make a final decision for "myself" if the teaching is valid for making money for "myself". If edge found, i proceed with the edge I found making money. If no edge found, I look for another trading theory idea that "may" have edge. In about 3 weeks (depending on job schedule), I shall have my answers.

In other words, each trader needs to prove Edge in what ever they believe in or whoever is selling the trade idea or trading theory.
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Damn right. It seems like most people either dismiss or too easily 'believe' without testing the validity of a given approach.

I think you're approaching this exactly how you should be.

Would be great if you could keep us updated on your findings.

Best of luck.
 
geth03 said:
here is a review from tradingschools: https://www.tradingschools.org/reviews/al-brooks-trading/

this is the shit he says in his trading room:
“Final flag, final flag, definitely final flag probably entering trading range with close support at possible entry point for aggresive buyers and definite exit point on multi-point sell position”
“Failure reversal bull flag with sellers climax possible sell, but looking to buy on minor pullback of micro bubble. Indecision bars signalling continuation of reversal points.”

wtf is this guy talking about? at any point in time the price can go up or down. and he is justifying this possibility with patterns, and in hindsight it will be clear and he will review his trades and justify again why price moved that way. and the guys watching this will learn absolutely nothing.
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%%
He uses too long a sentence/many oid timers do/LOL
That last sentence/ he hedged hiss sentence , admitting he could be wrong/LOL/ he is bullish .
As far as price improvement/sentence improvement; he could have said my QLD,qqq longs have been doing better in MAR , but SQQQ is loooking better lately,.Like today sqqq looking good:caution::caution::caution::caution::caution:,:caution::caution:
 
Laissez Faire said:
Thank you for your answer. You answered very well.



Right.

This is also relevant for the thread topic. The OP seems to dismiss TA/PA, yet he does not seem to have invested any serious work in trying to understand it either. It takes time. A lot of it. And even a good system/methodology may have additional challenges when trying to implement it in real time (think fast entries/exits, emotions, $$$ at risk, etc.).



Damn right. It seems like most people either dismiss or too easily 'believe' without testing the validity of a given approach. Correct, this mistake have cost me money in the past and an alot amount of time.

I think you're approaching this exactly how you should be. Thank you. I hope I answered your question.

Would be great if you could keep us updated on your findings.
Best of luck.
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Hello Laissez Faire,

Thanks for the response. I responded in red

I agree with your statements. From my experience, and I am not a consistent profitable trader, this is why I always state "my", I believe alot of traders make the mistake of thinking, "Just because I trade this way and he/she say trade that way, I will eventually make money"

That word eventually is a powerful word that I believed in for years as it relates to trading. After some serious thought, and I mean seriously thought and research "I" had to come to serious conclusion that my approach to trading is based on Hope it works eventually. AND NOT based on clear stats and data, that show that I have EDGE. "I" personally, will never ever trade my real money until I have a proven valid Edges.

Will that edges come from Al Brooks? I do not know. Will it comes from a KKK leader who trades and tells me at local bar? I do not know. Will it come from some on this ET forum? I do not know? The only way I will know is by "me" validating it at cost of $0.00.

But here is the key part of the thread, will I be mad and bash Al Brooks, if I find no edge with him and post on a forum to discredit his business, NO. NO, I will not, because here is thing. Al (just like all other teachers or book sellers), they selling their trade idea/theory/method/entry/exit. All Al is doing for me is presenting a trading idea or theory. Nothing wrong with that. All I have to do is now is validate his idea, but here the catch. I am not going to spend longer than a month or 2 to validate that. It either has edge per my testing or it does not. Then I am on to next trading ideas. Perhaps some of those trading ideas will be from price action, maybe they will not. Who knows!! I like the feeling of not knowing, but verifying and validating. A monkey can tell me a good trading idea, as long as the idea is clear, I can validate it. However, I do subjectively based on my experience and skillset lean more towards price action concepts.
 
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Back testing a method or system using software like for example Amibroker is a hit and miss affair, well it is if you were backtesting stocks.
You may end up with incorrect results, either too optimistic or too negative.
Example; I run a method which I doubt could be backtested unless I threw a huge amount of money into the data.
When I trade I'm always looking at correlations, what was this index doing, what was another index doing??
Backtesting normally can be difficult to code if there are a number of parameters, conditions, correlations and other data which your particular data supplier cannot supply.
Most traders I assume don't make trading decisions alone off one data source, they may think they do but unbeknown below the surface they may be influenced by news reports, weather, the time of the year, how far up the curve a bear or bull market has progressed, PE ratios, even what time of day - do you wait toward EOD to get price confirmation......all sorts of little things which make a difference to buy and sell signals and which can't be coded into a backtest.
 
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geth03 said:
Al brooks is like the head of a conservative, private church. You dont ask, you just follow.
And he wrote those really complex books, that even he does not understand. And those are their bibles.
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I would say the same about FuturesTrader71, he is also like the head of the conservative private church of volume profiling.
He also refuses to share his trading statements, even when asked multiple times. There is always some excuse and the matter is never addressed.
He also has a cult following; try pointing out something logical which outs him and you will get attacked by the Muskateer equivalents.
Every traderbite has 2 scenarios - either we will go up or we will go down. LOL!
 
geth03 said:
i don't want to discredit anybody, i don't give a fuck who sells what.
but i give a fuck if somebody is selling dreams!
this retard Al Brooks is promoting BS.

there is no nature in "price discovery". where was price discovery on the day of the flash crash? where is price discovery when there is sudden crash taking place?
do you think that buyers and sellers determine the value of the S&P index?
the ES futures contract will move in tandem with what the underlyings do,
if certain amount of deviation from fair value is reached, arbitrage and fair value algos will kick in!!! where is the fucking price discovery?

the majority of contracts are traded by algos that do not use any technical bullshit analysis, do you think they look for intraday bullish candles? or flags or channels?
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Why do you think flags...pennants...wedges...channels...PB’s...Breakouts....triangles....and such form on charts? Are they there? If so, why?
 
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