Can Options data be used to predict bullish or bearish market?

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easymon1

 
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easymon1 said:
For Index or Individual Stock?
For Hold Periods: Greater than two weeks, 2 to Ten days, Intraday?

Can Options data be used to predict bullish or bearish market ?
https://yippy.com/search?query=options+data+predicting+bullish+or+bearish+market+?

https://traderhq.com/trading-indicators/ultimate-guide-put-call-ratio/

https://www.investopedia.com/trading/forecasting-market-direction-with-put-call-ratios/

https://www.squareoff.in/single-post/Finding-the-Trend-of-the-Market-using-Option-Chain

https://seekingalpha.com/article/125787-can-high-options-volume-predict-future-stock-prices

http://cs229.stanford.edu/proj2016spr/report/052.pdf

http://fmaconferences.org/AF2018/Papers/Intraday_Trading_Predictability.pdf
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They can definitely predict volatility outbreaks. Saw a chart from Goldman Sachs before November elections where implied by options volatility of returns indicated a kind of a shock with subsequent fading. And yes it happened exactly in the same fashion.
 
images

This is more accurate.


best is don't bother to predict the market.
Go and do day trading.
In day trading, we just focus on the charts.
Just focus on what has happened past few minutes to past
few hours and that should suffice.

So don't need to surf the internet and hunt for
tons and tons of information on how to predict the market.
 
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One thing is predict, one thing is to have an expectation of movement. You always make an expectation when you trade. Nobody can see right of the price chart.
In my opinion the price is not sufficient, because the price derives from the money in the market. First we need to read the flows of money in the market, then we read the price chart. Add volatility analysis and volumes, and you may develop a more accurate expectation on what the big institutions are going to do on some market levels. And with this expectation you can place a trade and with strong money management you can boost you probabilities of success.
 
vegamedic said:
put/call ratios are notoriously inaccurate because they don't tell you the direction or intent of flow (hedging, put selling, outright put buying for speculation).

so, no.
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%%
Another problem/markets cant really be predicted.
Even a good weather forcaster like Farmers Almanac is only 80% right long term.
Animals may feed more ,24 hours before a storm,but that also may not help much\to put it simple.............................................................................................................................................
 
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